Retirement incentives, individual heterogeneity and labour transitions of employed and unemployed workers

In this paper we analyze the sensitivity of the labour market decisions of workers close to retirement with respect to the incentives created by public regulations. We improve upon the extensive prior literature on the effect of pension incentives on retirement in two ways. First, by modeling the transitions between employment, unemployment and retirement in a simultaneous manner, paying special attention to the transition from unemployment to retirement (which is particularly important in Spain). Second, by considering the influence of unobserved heterogeneity in the estimation of the effect of our (carefully constructed) incentive variables. Using administrative data, we find that, when properly defined, economic incentives have a strong impact on labour market decisions in Spain. Unemployment regulations are shown to be particularly influential for retirement behaviour, along with the more traditional determinants linked to the pension system. Pension variables also have a major bearing on both workers’ reemployment decisions and on the strategic actions of employers. The quantitative impact of the incentives, however, is greatly affected by the existence of unobserved heterogeneity among workers. Its omission leads to sizable biases in the assessment of the sensitivity to economic incentives, a finding that has clear consequences for the credibility of any model-based policy analysis. We confirm the importance of this potential problem in one especially interesting instance: the reform of early retirement provisions undertaken in Spain in 2002. We use a difference-in-difference approach to measure the behavioural reaction to this change, finding a large overestimation when unobserved heterogeneity is not taken into account.Retirement, unemployment, incentives, Pension system, Unobserved, heterogeneity, Spain.

The effects of employment uncertainty and wealth shocks on the labor supply and claiming behavior of older American workers

Unemployment rates in developed countries have recently reached levels not seen in a generation, and workers of all ages are facing increasing probabilities of losing their jobs and considerable losses in accumulated assets. These events likely increase the reliance that most older workers will have on public social insurance programs, exactly at a time that public finances are suffering from a large drop in contributions. Our paper explicitly accounts for employment uncertainty and unexpected wealth shocks, something that has been relatively overlooked in the literature, but that has grown in importance in recent years. Using administrative and household level data we empirically characterize a life-cycle model of retirement and claiming decisions in terms of the employment, wage, health, and mortality uncertainty faced by individuals. Our benchmark model explains with great accuracy the strikingly high proportion of individuals who claim benefits exactly at the Early Retirement Age, while still explaining the increased claiming hazard at the Normal Retirement Age. We also discuss some policy experiments and their interplay with employment uncertainty. Additionally, we analyze the effects of negative wealth shocks on the labor supply and claiming decisions of older Americans. Our results can explain why early claiming has remained very high in the last years even as the early retirement penalties have increased substantially compared with previous periods, and why labor force participation has remained quite high for older workers even in the midst of the worse employment crisis in decades.employment uncertainty, wealth shocks, retirement, labor supply, life-cycle models

On the evolution of the molecular line profiles induced by the propagation of C-shock waves

We present the first results of the expected variations of the molecular line emission arising from material recently affected by C-shocks (shock precursors). Our parametric model of the structure of C-shocks has been coupled with a radiative transfer code to calculate the molecular excitation and line profiles of shock tracers such as SiO, and of ion and neutral molecules such as H13CO+ and HN13C, as the shock propagates through the unperturbed medium. Our results show that the SiO emission arising from the early stage of the magnetic precursor typically has very narrow line profiles slightly shifted in velocity with respect to the ambient cloud. This narrow emission is generated in the region where the bulk of the ion fluid has already slipped to larger velocities in the precursor as observed toward the young L1448-mm outflow. This strongly suggests that the detection of narrow SiO emission and of an ion enhancement in young shocks, is produced by the magnetic precursor of C-shocks. In addition, our model shows that the different velocity components observed toward this outflow can be explained by the coexistence of different shocks at different evolutionary stages, within the same beam of the single-dish observations.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Abundant Z-cyanomethanimine in the interstellar medium: paving the way to the synthesis of adenine

We report the first detection in the interstellar medium of the Z-isomer of cyanomethanimine (HNCHCN), an HCN dimer proposed as precursor of adenine. We identified six transitions of Z-cyanomethanimine, along with five transitions of E-cyanomethanimine, using IRAM 30m observations towards the Galactic Center quiescent molecular cloud G+0.693. The Z-isomer has a column density of (2.0$\pm$0.6)$\times$10$^{14}$ cm$^{-2}$ and an abundance of 1.5$\times$10$^{-9}$. The relative abundance ratio between the isomers is [Z/E]$\sim$6. This value cannot be explained by the two chemical formation routes previously proposed (gas-phase and grain surface), which predicts abundances ratios between 0.9 and 1.5. The observed [Z/E] ratio is in good agreement with thermodynamic equilibrium at the gas kinetic temperature (130$-$210 K). Since isomerization is not possible in the ISM, the two species may be formed at high temperature. New chemical models, including surface chemistry on dust grains and gas-phase reactions, should be explored to explain our findings. Whatever the formation mechanism, the high abundance of Z-HNCHCN shows that precursors of adenine are efficiently formed in the ISM.Comment: Accepted in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letter

Complex organic molecules in the Galactic Centre: the N-bearing family

We present an unbiased spectral line survey toward the Galactic Centre (GC) quiescent giant molecular cloud (QGMC), G+0.693 using the GBT and IRAM 30$\,$ telescopes. Our study highlights an extremely rich organic inventory of abundant amounts of nitrogen (N)-bearing species in a source without signatures of star formation. We report the detection of 17 N-bearing species in this source, of which 8 are complex organic molecules (COMs). A comparison of the derived abundances relative to H$_2$ is made across various galactic and extragalactic environments. We conclude that the unique chemistry in this source is likely to be dominated by low-velocity shocks with X-rays/cosmic rays also playing an important role in the chemistry. Like previous findings obtained for O-bearing molecules, our results for N-bearing species suggest a more efficient hydrogenation of these species on dust grains in G+0.693 than in hot cores in the Galactic disk, as a consequence of the low dust temperatures coupled with energetic processing by X-ray/cosmic ray radiation in the GC.Comment: 24 pages, 23 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

The magnetic precursor of L1448-mm: Excitation differences between ion and neutral fluids

Shock modelling predicts an electron density enhancement within the magnetic precursor of C-shocks. Previous observations of SiO, H13CO+, HN13C and H13CN toward the young L1448-mm outflow showed an over-excitation of the ion fluid that was attributed to an electron density enhancement in the precursor. We re-visit this interpretation and test if it still holds when we consider different source morphologies and kinetic temperatures for the observed molecules, and also give some insight on the spatial extent of the electron density enhancement around L1448-mm. We estimate the opacities of H13CO+ and HN13C by observing the J=3\to2 lines of rarer isotopologues to confirm that the emission is optically thin. To model the excitation of the molecules, we use the large velocity gradient (LVG) approximation with updated collisional coefficients to i) re- analyse the observations toward the positions where the over-excitation of H13CO+ has previously been observed [i.e. toward L1448- mm at offsets (0,0) and (0,-10)], and ii) to investigate if the electron density enhancement is still required for the cases of extended and compact emission, and for kinetic temperatures of up to 400 K. We also report several lines of SiO, HN13C and H13CO+ toward new positions around this outflow, to investigate the spatial extent of the over-excitation of the ions in L1448-mm. From the isotopologue observations, we find that the emission of H13CO+ and HN13C from the precursor is optically thin if this emission is extended. Using the new collisional coefficients, an electron density enhancement is still needed to explain the excitation of H13CO+ for extended emission and for gas temperatures of\le 400 K toward L1448-mm (0,-10), and possibly also toward L1448-mm (0,0). For compact emission the data cannot be fitted. We do not find any evidence for the over-excitation of the ion fluid toward the newly observed positions around L1448-mm. The observed line emission of SiO, H13CO+ and HN13C toward L1448-mm (0,0) and (0,-10) is consistent with an electron density enhancement in the precursor component, if this emission is spatially extended. This is also true for the case of high gas temperatures (\le400 K) toward the (0,-10) offset. The electron density enhancement seems to be restricted to the southern, redshifted lobe of the L1448-mm outflow. Interferometric images of the line emission of these molecules are needed to confirm the spatial extent of the over-excitation of the ions and thus, of the electron density enhancement in the magnetic precursor of L1448-mm.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A; 9 pages, 3 figure

Estudios sobre la grasa de semillas de chirimoyo

Resumen de tesis Doctoral realizada por J. Jiménez Martín