Measuring the repetition of domestic violence and abuse in police data

Domestic violence and abuse (DVA) is repetitious, and much of the demand is attributable to repeat victims and perpetrators. Targeting resources at repetition could be an effective method of reducing demand. Targeting repetition requires accurate information on repeat victims and perpetrators. This thesis uses data from Lancashire Constabulary to investigate: what data do the police have on DVA; what are the problems with the current structure of police data for measuring DVA repetition; how can police data be improved to measure DVA repetition? Analysis of existing police datasets found the data unsuitable for measuring DVA repetition for four key reasons: different units of measurement; inconsistent recording of personal details; misuse of DVA markers; and information lost in free-text. The framework for measuring DVA repetition and assessing police interventions, was derived from the DVA literature. Observations of the response mapped out the complexity and identified relevant data sources. Information from multiple sources was recoded into a new dataset following the measurement framework. The new dataset estimated that 51% of victims were repeats, compared to 21% in the original crime dataset. A series of analyses were conducted, designed around existing debates in the DVA literature, for instance whether DVA is gendered and escalatory. The analysis demonstrated the potential for police data to measure patterns of DVA repetition, and assess the impact of police action. The thesis contributes a process map of the police response to DVA; a measurement framework for measuring DVA and assessing police actions; criteria for future police data collection; and a methodology for restructuring police data. Though the outputs are methodological, the thesis is driven by the substantive implications of improved police data on the ability of the police to measure, respond to and reduce DVA. The thesis has implications for police practice, policy, and Criminological theory

Missing from Lancashire:the influence of risk assessment on time to resolution in missing from home cases

In 2014/15, police forces across England, Scotland and Wales received over 300,000 calls relating to missing persons, a figure that appears to be increasing. Despite this growing figure and the workload it places on police forces, there has been a lack of research into the area of missing persons. For most forces, the level of police response that a missing person case requires is set by the risk classification that has been assigned to the case. These levels are ‘Standard Risk’, ‘Medium Risk’ and ‘High Risk’. This project examines the appropriateness of these risk classifications based on how they are assigned and the effect they have on the time it takes to resolve a case. The data used comes from Lancashire Constabulary and contains all missing person reports that were made to the force in 2015. Logistic regression is used to investigate the individual risk factors that best predict a ‘High Risk’ classification and examine how these differ to the risk factors that the police believe indicate higher risk. The main body of the analysis focusses on modelling the time to resolution for missing from home cases as predicted by their risk level and other explanatory variables using event history analysis methods. Kaplan-Meier estimates are used to model the probability of no resolution by risk level. Cox Proportional Hazards Models are then used to determine which factors alongside risk level are significant in their prediction of time to resolution. These models are then extended to account for the effects of repeatedly missing persons with the inclusion of a frailty term. This project concludes that risk classification does have a significant effect on the time to resolution and puts forward the notion that the large amount of cases being classified as ‘Medium Risk’ has absorbed police time and resources and in turn taken these away from the more complex ‘High Risk’ cases which see a slower time to resolution than ‘Medium Risk’ after the first 24 hours of a missing person case being created. Recommendations and possible extensions to the analysis are provided

Police risk assessment and case outcomes in missing person investigations

In England and Wales, police consider potential harm in missing person investigations using graded risk assessment. Using 4746 missing person reports made to one police force in 2015, we investigate the extent to which age, sex and police risk factors predict high-risk classifications and harmful case outcomes. We find age, sex and specific risk factors including out of character behaviour and suicide risk increased the likelihood of high-risk classifications, whilst other risk factors including physical/mental illness and drug/alcohol misuse increased the likelihood of harmful outcomes. We also find certain risk factors reduced the likelihood of high-risk classifications and harmful outcomes

A day in the life of a Ménière’s patient:Understanding the lived experiences and mental health impacts of Ménière’s disease

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Concepts of social practice are increasingly being used to understand experiences of everyday life, particularly in relation to consumption and healthy lifestyles. This paper builds on this in the context of lives disrupted and reshaped by chronic illness. It uses social practice theory to examine the lived experiences of individuals with Ménière’s disease; a long-term progressive vestibular disorder, defined by episodes of severe and debilitating vertigo, aural fullness, tinnitus and sensorineural hearing loss. Drawing on the findings of 20 in-depth narrative interviews with Ménière’s patients, and eight spousal/partner interviews, we explore the impacts of the condition on sensory, temporal, spatial and social dimensions of the body. In doing so, we highlight the intensely embodied sensory and emotional work required to maintain connections between the ‘competences’, ‘materials’ and ‘meanings’ that constitute and sustain the performance of both mundane and meaningful social practices over time. As connections between these elements of social practice are disrupted during more active phases of the condition, affected individuals may be defected from old practices and recruited to new ones, often requiring both time and social support to find meaning or pleasure in these alternative ways of being in the world.Many thanks go to all the study participants for sharing their experiences; Mr. David Whinney (Ear Nose and Throat Consultant at Royal Cornwall Hospital Treliske), Clinical Project Advisor; the Ménière’s Society for funding the study; and PenCLAHRC (the National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula) for providing follow-on funding. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or the Ménière’s Society. We would also like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable feedback on an earlier draft of this paper

Data collection on trafficking in human beings in the EU:Final report

Trafficking in human beings is the buying and selling of women, girls, men, and boys. It has hugely deleterious consequences for individuals, society, and the economy. This is the fourth report published by the European Commission that presents a compilation of statistics at the EU Member State level on trafficking in human beings. This data collection exercise approached all 28-Member States and covers the years 2015 and 2016and updates the 2014 data collection as relevant

Elevated <scp>CO₂</scp> interacts with nutrient inputs to restructure plant communities in phosphorus‐limited grasslands

AbstractGlobally pervasive increases in atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen (N) deposition could have substantial effects on plant communities, either directly or mediated by their interactions with soil nutrient limitation. While the direct consequences of N enrichment on plant communities are well documented, potential interactions with rising CO2 and globally widespread phosphorus (P) limitation remain poorly understood. We investigated the consequences of simultaneous elevated CO2 (eCO2) and N and P additions on grassland biodiversity, community and functional composition in P‐limited grasslands. We exposed soil‐turf monoliths from limestone and acidic grasslands that have received &gt;25 years of N additions (3.5 and 14 g m−2 year−1) and 11 (limestone) or 25 (acidic) years of P additions (3.5 g m−2 year−1) to eCO2 (600 ppm) for 3 years. Across both grasslands, eCO2, N and P additions significantly changed community composition. Limestone communities were more responsive to eCO2 and saw significant functional shifts resulting from eCO2–nutrient interactions. Here, legume cover tripled in response to combined eCO2 and P additions, and combined eCO2 and N treatments shifted functional dominance from grasses to sedges. We suggest that eCO2 may disproportionately benefit P acquisition by sedges by subsidising the carbon cost of locally intense root exudation at the expense of co‐occurring grasses. In contrast, the functional composition of the acidic grassland was insensitive to eCO2 and its interactions with nutrient additions. Greater diversity of P‐acquisition strategies in the limestone grassland, combined with a more functionally even and diverse community, may contribute to the stronger responses compared to the acidic grassland. Our work suggests we may see large changes in the composition and biodiversity of P‐limited grasslands in response to eCO2 and its interactions with nutrient loading, particularly where these contain a high diversity of P‐acquisition strategies or developmentally young soils with sufficient bioavailable mineral P.</jats:p

Missing children: risks, repeats and responses

Investigating reports of missing children is a major source of demand for the police in the UK. Repeat disappearances are common, can indicate underlying vulnerabilities and have been linked with various forms of exploitation and abuse. Inspired by research on repeat victimisation, this paper examines the prevalence and temporal patterns of repeat missing episodes by children, as well as the characteristics of those involved. Using data on all missing children incidents recorded by one UK police service in 2015 (n = 3,352), we find that: (a) 75% of missing incidents involving children were repeats, i.e. attributed to children who had already been reported missing in 2015; (b) a small proportion of repeatedly missing children (n = 59; 4%) accounted for almost a third of all missing children incidents (n = 952, 28%); (c) over half of all first repeat disappearances occurred within four weeks of an initial police recorded missing episode; and (d) children recorded as missing ten times or more over the one year study period were significantly more likely than those recorded missing once to be teenagers, in the care system or to have drug and/or alcohol dependencies. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for future research and the prevention of repeat disappearances by children

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Ménière's disease and biographical disruption: Where family transitions collide

People's lived experiences of chronic illness have garnered increasing research interest over the last 30–40 years, with studies recognising the disruptive influence of illness onset and progression, both to people's everyday lives and to their biographical selves. We extend this body of work, drawing on the experiences of people living with Ménière's disease; a long-term progressive vestibular disorder characterised by unpredictable episodes of debilitating vertigo, tinnitus and permanent sensorineural hearing loss. In response to calls for more critical examination of the wider biographical contexts in which chronic illnesses are encountered, we draw on 28 in-depth narrative interviews with Ménière's patients and their family members to discuss how personal chronic illness experiences may be closely entwined with, and deeply shaped by, the life transitions (illness-related and otherwise) of ‘linked others’. Interviews were conducted in south west England from January to June 2015. Focusing on intersecting transitions of parenthood, caregiving and retirement, we explore how and why familial relationships can both facilitate and hinder adaptation to a lifetime of chronically disrupted normalities, contributing to fluctuating experiences of ‘cherished time’, ‘anomalous time’ and ‘turbulent time’. In so doing, we suggest that the onset and progression of chronic illness could usefully be re-conceptualised as one of many ‘biographical oscillations’ encountered during the life course that serve to re-route us between continually shifting life trajectories. In recognising life's dynamism and challenging the identity-limiting and self-damaging nature of entrenched cultural life course constructions, we suggest value in recognising alternative ways of ‘living well’ when negotiating the wide-ranging biographical maps that life can follow