Seasonal-adjustment Based Feature Selection Method for Large-scale Search Engine Logs

Search engine logs have a great potential in tracking and predicting outbreaks of infectious disease. More precisely, one can use the search volume of some search terms to predict the infection rate of an infectious disease in nearly real-time. However, conducting accurate and stable prediction of outbreaks using search engine logs is a challenging task due to the following two-way instability characteristics of the search logs. First, the search volume of a search term may change irregularly in the short-term, for example, due to environmental factors such as the amount of media or news. Second, the search volume may also change in the long-term due to the demographic change of the search engine. That is to say, if a model is trained with such search logs with ignoring such characteristic, the resulting prediction would contain serious mispredictions when these changes occur. In this work, we proposed a novel feature selection method to overcome this instability problem. In particular, we employ a seasonal-adjustment method that decomposes each time series into three components: seasonal, trend and irregular component and build prediction models for each component individually. We also carefully design a feature selection method to select proper search terms to predict each component. We conducted comprehensive experiments on ten different kinds of infectious diseases. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms all comparative methods in prediction accuracy for seven of ten diseases, in both now-casting and forecasting setting. Also, the proposed method is more successful in selecting search terms that are semantically related to target diseases.Comment: The 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD '19

Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study

Objective To determine the costs and health effects of interventions to combat breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers in order to guide resource allocation decisions in developing countries

Prevention, screening and treatment of colorectal cancer: a global and regional generalized cost effectiveness analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Regional generalized cost-effectiveness estimates of prevention, screening and treatment interventions for colorectal cancer are presented.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Standardised WHO-CHOICE methodology was used. A colorectal cancer model was employed to provide estimates of screening and treatment effectiveness. Intervention effectiveness was determined via a population state-transition model (PopMod) that simulates the evolution of a sub-regional population accounting for births, deaths and disease epidemiology. Economic costs of procedures and treatment were estimated, including programme overhead and training costs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In regions characterised by high income, low mortality and high existing treatment coverage, the addition of screening to the current high treatment levels is very cost-effective, although no particular intervention stands out in cost-effectiveness terms relative to the others.</p> <p>In regions characterised by low income, low mortality with existing treatment coverage around 50%, expanding treatment with or without screening is cost-effective or very cost-effective. Abandoning treatment in favour of screening (no treatment scenario) would not be cost effective.</p> <p>In regions characterised by low income, high mortality and low treatment levels, the most cost-effective intervention is expanding treatment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>From a cost-effectiveness standpoint, screening programmes should be expanded in developed regions and treatment programmes should be established for colorectal cancer in regions with low treatment coverage.</p

Association of Over-The-Counter Pharmaceutical Sales with Influenza-Like-Illnesses to Patient Volume in an Urgent Care Setting

We studied the association between OTC pharmaceutical sales and volume of patients with influenza-like-illnesses (ILI) at an urgent care center over one year. OTC pharmaceutical sales explain 36% of the variance in the patient volume, and each standard deviation increase is associated with 4.7 more patient visits to the urgent care center (p<0.0001). Cross-correlation function analysis demonstrated that OTC pharmaceutical sales are significantly associated with patient volume during non-flu season (p<0.0001), but only the sales of cough and cold (p<0.0001) and thermometer (p<0.0001) categories were significant during flu season with a lag of two and one days, respectively. Our study is the first study to demonstrate and measure the relationship between OTC pharmaceutical sales and urgent care center patient volume, and presents strong evidence that OTC sales predict urgent care center patient volume year round. © 2013 Liu et al

STX209 (Arbaclofen) for Autism Spectrum Disorders: An 8-Week Open-Label Study

STX209 (arbaclofen), a selective GABA-B agonist, is hypothesized to modulate the balance of excitatory to inhibitory neurotransmission, and has shown preliminary evidence of benefit in fragile X syndrome. We evaluated its safety, tolerability, and efficacy in non-syndromic autism spectrum disorders, in an 8-week open-label trial enrolling 32 children and adolescents with either Autistic Disorder or Pervasive Developmental Disorder—Not Otherwise Specified, and a score ≥17 on the Aberrant Behavior Checklist (ABC)—Irritability subscale. STX209 was generally well-tolerated. The most common adverse events were agitation and irritability, which typically resolved without dose changes, and were often felt to represent spontaneous variation in underlying symptoms. Improvements were observed on several outcome measures in this exploratory trial, including the ABC-Irritability (the primary endpoint) and the Lethargy/Social Withdrawal subscales, the Social Responsiveness Scale, the CY-BOCS-PDD, and clinical global impression scales. Placebo-controlled study of STX209 is warranted.Seaside Therapeutics Inc

Traveling waves for a model of gravity-driven film flows in cylindrical domains

Traveling wave solutions are studied for a recently-derived model of a falling viscous film on the interior of a vertical rigid tube. By identifying a Hopf bifurcation and using numerical continuation software, families of non-trivial traveling wave solutions may be traced out in parameter space. These families all contain a single solution at a ‘turnaround point’ with larger film thickness than all others in the family. In an earlier paper, it was conjectured that this turnaround point may represent a critical thickness separating two distinct flow regimes observed in physical experiments as well as two distinct types of behavior in transient solutions to the model. Here, these hypotheses are verified over a range of parameter values using a combination of numerical and analytical techniques. The linear stability of these solutions is also discussed; both large- and small-amplitude solutions are shown to be unstable, though the instability mechanisms are different for each wave type. Specifically, for small-amplitude waves, the region of relatively flat film away from the localized wave crest is subject to the same instability that makes the trivial flat-film solution unstable; for large-amplitude waves, this mechanism is present but dwarfed by a much stronger tendency to relax to a regime close to that followed by small-amplitude waves

Fully covered self-expanding metal stents placed temporarily in the bile duct: safety profile and histologic classification in a porcine model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fully covered Self-Expanding metal stents (FCSEMS) have been shown efficacious in palliating malignant biliary obstructions. There is little data analyzing mucosal response to their temporary placement in the bile duct.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ten mini pigs underwent endoscopic placement of a FCSEMS (Wallflex, Boston Scientific). FCSEMS were kept in place for three months. At the end of the 3 months, FCSEMS were removed endoscopically. Five pigs were euthanized and their bile ducts harvested. The other five were kept alive for another month post removal. A single pathologist, created a scoring system (to determine degree of inflammation, fibrosis, and epithelial injury), examined all specimens in a blinded fashion.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Four FCSEMS spontaneously migrated in the duodenum. On post mortem examination, mild mucosal thickness was noted in three bile duct specimens while superficial inflammation of the bile duct was noted in five animals. Histologic examination of the bile duct revealed focal acute inflammation in both groups. For the 5 animals euthanized immediately after stent removal, there was a tendency to have superficial mucosal erosion and fibrosis. In contrast, increased chronic inflammation was more commonly seen in the animals 1 month post stent removal, with all animals in this group showing moderate degrees of mononuclear inflammatory cell mucosal infiltrates. No severe inflammatory or fibrotic duct injury was observed in any of the study animals, with degree of injury graded as mild to moderate.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>FCSEMS appear to induce minimal tissue overgrowth or fibrosis post placement. Ease of removability and no significant histologic injury are advantages noted with FCSEMS., however, further studies are needed to evaluate treating benign biliary strictures with FCSEMS in humans.</p

Manipulation of starch bioaccessibility in wheat endosperm to regulate starch digestion, postprandial glycemia, insulinemia, and gut hormone responses: a randomized controlled trial in healthy ileostomy participants

Background: Cereal crops, particularly wheat, are a major dietary source of starch, and the bioaccessibility of starch has implications for postprandial glycemia. The structure and properties of plant foods have been identified as critical factors in influencing nutrient bioaccessibility; however, the physical and biochemical disassembly of cereal food during digestion has not been widely studied. Objectives: The aims of this study were to compare the effects of 2 porridge meals prepared from wheat endosperm with different degrees of starch bioaccessibility on postprandial metabolism (e.g., glycemia) and to gain insight into the structural and biochemical breakdown of the test meals during gastroileal transit. Design: A randomized crossover trial in 9 healthy ileostomy participants was designed to compare the effects of 55 g starch, provided as coarse (2-mm particles) or smooth (0.2-mm particles) wheat porridge, on postprandial changes in blood glucose, insulin, C-peptide, lipids, and gut hormones and on the resistant starch (RS) content of ileal effluent. Undigested food in the ileal output was examined microscopically to identify cell walls and encapsulated starch. Results: Blood glucose, insulin, C-peptide, and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide concentrations were significantly lower (i.e., 33%, 43%, 40%, and 50% lower 120-min incremental AUC, respectively) after consumption of the coarse porridge than after the smooth porridge (P , 0.01). In vitro, starch digestion was slower in the coarse porridge than in the smooth porridge (33% less starch digested at 90 min, P , 0.05, paired t test). In vivo, the structural integrity of coarse particles (~2 mm) of wheat endosperm was retained during gastroileal transit. Microscopic examination revealed a progressive loss of starch from the periphery toward the particle core. The structure of the test meal had no effect on the amount or pattern of RS output. Conclusion: The structural integrity of wheat endosperm is largely retained during gastroileal digestion and has a primary role in influencing the rate of starch amylolysis and, consequently, postprandial metabolism. This trial was registered at isrctn.org as ISRCTN40517475