Crowd control: Reducing individual estimation bias by sharing biased social information

Cognitive biases are widespread in humans and animals alike, and can sometimes be reinforced by social interactions. One prime bias in judgment and decision-making is the human tendency to underestimate large quantities. Previous research on social influence in estimation tasks has generally focused on the impact of single estimates on individual and collective accuracy, showing that randomly sharing estimates does not reduce the underestimation bias. Here, we test a method of social information sharing that exploits the known relationship between the true value and the level of underestimation, and study if it can counteract the underestimation bias. We performed estimation experiments in which participants had to estimate a series of quantities twice, before and after receiving estimates from one or several group members. Our purpose was threefold: to study (i) whether restructuring the sharing of social information can reduce the underestimation bias, (ii) how the number of estimates received affects the sensitivity to social influence and estimation accuracy, and (iii) the mechanisms underlying the integration of multiple estimates. Our restructuring of social interactions successfully countered the underestimation bias. Moreover, we find that sharing more than one estimate also reduces the underestimation bias. Underlying our results are a human tendency to herd, to trust larger estimates than one’s own more than smaller estimates, and to follow disparate social information less. Using a computational modeling approach, we demonstrate that these effects are indeed key to explain the experimental results. Overall, our results show that existing knowledge on biases can be used to dampen their negative effects and boost judgment accuracy, paving the way for combating other cognitive biases threatening collective systems

Real-time on-board orbit determination with DORIS

A spaceborne orbit determination system is being developed by the French Space Agency (CNES) for the SPOT 4 satellite. It processes DORIS measurements to produce an orbit with an accuracy of about 50O meters rms. In order to evaluate the reliability of the software, it was combined with the MERCATOR man/machine interface and used to process the TOPEX/Poseidon DORIS data in near real time during the validation phase of the instrument, at JPL and at CNES. This paper gives an overview of the orbit determination system and presents the results of the TOPEX/Poseidon experiment

Comparison of the frequency estimation of the DORIS/Jason2 oscillator thanks to the onboard DIODE and Time Transfer by Laser Link experiment

International audienceThe main applications for DORIS are precise orbit determination, and precise Geodesy. Onboard Jason-2 for instance, the DORIS tracking component is the French contribution to the precise orbit determination capability, a key capability for altimetry product scientific result accuracy. T2L2 is a time transfer technique based on the propagation of light pulses for synchronization between two clocks. Hosting T2L2 on-board Jason-2 was to allow for very fine DORIS USO (Ultra-Stable Oscillator) frequency monitoring, and for this purpose T2L2 was connected to the DORIS USO. Thanks to the continuous tracking of T2L2/Jason-2 by the Laser Ranging network it is possible to monitor the USO for several days, weeks, and even much longer, and thus to also compare with the DIODE (the DORIS on-board orbit determination software) frequency bias estimates. The DORIS USO frequency biases estimate comparison between two independent systems, T2L2 and DIODE, can be of benefit to both, allowing the accuracies of both systems to be better understood, and for improvements to be made to both systems. Such comparison is the central topic of the present paper. T2L2 monitors the DORIS on-board USO frequency with an accuracy of much better than 10−12 which is the specification for the Doppler instrumentation.The paper investigates the limits of the DORIS-DIODE frequency bias estimates using T2L2, showing that USO frequency compliance accuracy of 10−12 has been reached

Characterization of an ultra stable quartz oscillator thanks to Time Transfer by Laser Link (T2L2, Jason-2)

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Temperature, radiation and aging analysis of the DORIS Ultra Stable Oscillator by means of the Time Transfer by Laser Link experiment on Jason-2

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The SARAL/AltiKa Altimetry Satellite Mission

International audienceThe India-France SARAL/AltiKa mission is the first Ka-band altimetric mission dedi-cated to oceanography. The mission objectives are primarily the observation of the oceanic mesoscales but also include coastal oceanography, global and regional sea level monitoring, data assimilation, and operational oceanography. Secondary objectives include ice sheet and inland waters monitoring. One year after launch, the results widely confirm the nominal expectations in terms of accuracy, data quality and data availability in general.Today's performances are compliant with specifications with an overall observed performance for the Sea Surface Height RMS of 3.4 cm to be compared to a 4 cm requirement. Some scientific examples are provided that illustrate some salient features of today's SARAL/AltiKa data with regard to standard altimetry: data availability, data accuracy at the mesoscales, data usefulness in costal area, over ice sheet, and for inland waters