Transfer Topic Labeling with Domain-Specific Knowledge Base: An Analysis of UK House of Commons Speeches 1935-2014

Topic models are widely used in natural language processing, allowing researchers to estimate the underlying themes in a collection of documents. Most topic models use unsupervised methods and hence require the additional step of attaching meaningful labels to estimated topics. This process of manual labeling is not scalable and suffers from human bias. We present a semi-automatic transfer topic labeling method that seeks to remedy these problems. Domain-specific codebooks form the knowledge-base for automated topic labeling. We demonstrate our approach with a dynamic topic model analysis of the complete corpus of UK House of Commons speeches 1935-2014, using the coding instructions of the Comparative Agendas Project to label topics. We show that our method works well for a majority of the topics we estimate; but we also find that institution-specific topics, in particular on subnational governance, require manual input. We validate our results using human expert coding

Multiplex Communities and the Emergence of International Conflict

Advances in community detection reveal new insights into multiplex and multilayer networks. Less work, however, investigates the relationship between these communities and outcomes in social systems. We leverage these advances to shed light on the relationship between the cooperative mesostructure of the international system and the onset of interstate conflict. We detect communities based upon weaker signals of affinity expressed in United Nations votes and speeches, as well as stronger signals observed across multiple layers of bilateral cooperation. Communities of diplomatic affinity display an expected negative relationship with conflict onset. Ties in communities based upon observed cooperation, however, display no effect under a standard model specification and a positive relationship with conflict under an alternative specification. These results align with some extant hypotheses but also point to a paucity in our understanding of the relationship between community structure and behavioral outcomes in networks.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1802.0039

Deep Learning for Political Science

Political science, and social science in general, have traditionally been using computational methods to study areas such as voting behavior, policy making, international conflict, and international development. More recently, increasingly available quantities of data are being combined with improved algorithms and affordable computational resources to predict, learn, and discover new insights from data that is large in volume and variety. New developments in the areas of machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing (NLP), and, more generally, artificial intelligence (AI) are opening up new opportunities for testing theories and evaluating the impact of interventions and programs in a more dynamic and effective way. Applications using large volumes of structured and unstructured data are becoming common in government and industry, and increasingly also in social science research. This chapter offers an introduction to such methods drawing examples from political science. Focusing on the areas where the strengths of the methods coincide with challenges in these fields, the chapter first presents an introduction to AI and its core technology - machine learning, with its rapidly developing subfield of deep learning. The discussion of deep neural networks is illustrated with the NLP tasks that are relevant to political science. The latest advances in deep learning methods for NLP are also reviewed, together with their potential for improving information extraction and pattern recognition from political science texts

Big Data and AI – A transformational shift for government: So, what next for research?

Big Data and artificial intelligence will have a profound transformational impact on governments around the world. Thus, it is important for scholars to provide a useful analysis on the topic to public managers and policymakers. This study offers an in-depth review of the Policy and Administration literature on the role of Big Data and advanced analytics in the public sector. It provides an overview of the key themes in the research field, namely the application and benefits of Big Data throughout the policy process, and challenges to its adoption and the resulting implications for the public sector. It is argued that research on the subject is still nascent and more should be done to ensure that the theory adds real value to practitioners. A critical assessment of the strengths and limitations of the existing literature is developed, and a future research agenda to address these gaps and enrich our understanding of the topic is proposed

The 2022 South America report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: trust the science. Now that we know, we must act

The health of South American populations is being severely impacted by increasing climate change-driven environmental changes. Exacerbated by increased social inequities and vulnerability, deforestation, land degradation, and global climate variabilities in sea temperature, can potentially lead to extreme weather and climate events, magnifying the negative effects of climate change on health. Understanding the direct and indirect exposure routes to climate hazards and the effects on health and wellbeing is critical to design successful and effective evidence-based adaptation and mitigation plans and policies. This report is part of the Lancet Countdown's broader efforts to develop expertise and understanding of the links between health and climate change at the regional level. The Lancet Countdown South America (LCSA), a newly launched chapter of the Lancet Countdown, is an independent, multidisciplinary academic collaboration dedicated to tracking the links between public health and climate change in South America (SA). This collaboration brings together 21 academic institutions and UN agencies with 28 researchers representing various disciplines. The data and results provided in this report for the 12 countries of the region,∗ explore in regional detail the results of the 2022 global Lancet Countdown report and provide the evidence to support targeted response strategies for decision-makers. Its findings and conclusions represent the consensus of experts across multiple fields, covering 25 indicators summarised below in four key messages

The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the health dimensions of the impacts of, and the response to, climate change. The Lancet Countdown tracks 41 indicators across five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; finance and economics; and public and political engagement. This report is the product of a collaboration of 27 leading academic institutions, the UN, and intergovernmental agencies from every continent. The report draws on world-class expertise from climate scientists, ecologists, mathematicians, geographers, engineers, energy, food, livestock, and transport experts, economists, social and political scientists, public health professionals, and. doctors. The Lancet Countdown’s work builds on decades of research in this field, and was first proposed in the 2015 Lancet Commission on health and climate change,1 which documented the human impacts of climate change and provided ten global recommendations to respond to this public health emergency and secure the public health benefits available (panel 1)

The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises

The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration, established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate. The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. This report represents the findings and consensus of the 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies that make up the Lancet Countdown, and draws on the expertise of climate scientists, geographers, and engineers; of energy, food, and transport experts; and of economists, social and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors

Application of Natural Language Processing to Determine User Satisfaction in Public Services

Research on user satisfaction has increased substantially in recent years. Studies to date tend to test for significance of pre-defined factors thought to have an influence with no scalable means to verify the validity of the assumptions made. Digital technology has enabled new methods to collect user feedback, for example through online forums where service users post comments. Topic models can help analyze large volumes of such feedback and are proposed as a feasible solution to aggregate user opinions for use in the public sector. Insights can contribute to a more inclusive decision-making process in public services. This novel approach is applied to process reviews of publicly-funded primary care practices in England. Findings from the analysis of over 200,000 reviews indicate that the quality of interactions with staff and bureaucratic exigencies are the key drivers of user satisfaction. Moreover, patient satisfaction is strongly influenced by factors not considered in state-of-the-art patient surveys. These results highlight the potential benefits that text mining and machine learning for the public administration field

Policy Performance and Support for European Integration

Following Easton’s conceptual framework discussed in the introductory chapter, a hierarchical relationship exists between three objects of support: output support, support for institutions, and support for the community. The latter two objects of support are examined in turn in two subsequent chapters on trust in European political institutions and the relationship between citizenship and identity in the European Community. This chapter focuses on the first object of support – support derived from the accrued material benefits of EU membership