New Electricity Technologies for a Sustainable Future

There is a growing concern over our reliance on conventional electricity sources and their long-term environmental, climate change, and security of supply implications, and much hope is vested in the ability of future technological progress to tackle these issues. However, informed academic analysis and policy debates on the future of electricity systems must be based on the current state, and prospects of, technological options. This paper is the introductory chapter in the forthcoming book Future Electricity Technologies and Systems. The book comprises contributions from leading experts in their respective technology areas. The chapters present state of the art and likely progress paths of conventional and new electricity generation, networks, storage, and end-use technologies. In this paper we review the growth trend in electricity demand and carbon emissions. We then present a concise overview of the chapters. Finally, we discuss the main contextual factors that influence long-term technological progress

Optimal Power Generation Portfolios with Renewables: An Application to the UK

In recent years, geopolitical events have raised questions about the security of European energy supplies and which electricity generation technologies present an optimal fuel mix. Likewise, private investors need to allocate their capital efficiently by devising portfolios of generation assets. This paper applies the Modern Portfolio Theory to determine an optimal portfolio with four electricity generation technologies. Using UK electricity and fuel price data and European carbon allowance prices for the period 2009-2013, we find that coal assets increase portfolio risk and decrease overall returns, whilst a combination of gas, nuclear and wind assets allows an investor to maximise risk-adjusted return. In addition, we examine the role of power purchase agreements (PPAs) to assess whether predictable revenues create more appealing portfolio characteristics. We find that such contracts reduce portfolio returns, highlighting the importance of the set prices and their possible fluctuations over time. The findings support electricity market reform that discourages coal investment and supports investment in renewable technologies. The results also suggest that PPAs could make sense for independent renewable generators, although this would require modelling of the uncertainty of variable load factors and operating costs

Using Supervised Environmental Composites in Production and Efficiency Analyses: An Application to Norwegian Electricity Networks

Although supervised dimension reduction methods have been extensively applied in different scientific fields, they have hardly ever been used in production economics. Nonetheless, these methods can also be useful in regulation of natural monopolies, where firms’ cost and performance are affected by a large number of environmental factors. As economic theory suggests, at the presence of other relevant production or cost drivers, the traditional all-inclusive assumption is not satisfied. This paper shows that purging the data allows us to address this issue when analyzing the effect of weather and geography on efficiency in the context of the Norwegian electricity distribution networks

The co-evolutionary relationship between energy service companies and the UK energy system: Implications for a low-carbon transition

The Energy Service Company (ESCo) business model is designed to reward businesses by satisfying consumers' energy needs at less cost and with fewer carbon emissions via energy demand management and/or sustainable supply measures. In contrast, the revenue of the incumbent Energy Utility Company (EUCo) model is coupled with the sale of units of energy, which are predominantly sourced from fossil fuels. The latter is currently dominant in the UK. This paper addresses two questions. First, why has the ESCo model traditionally been confined to niche applications? Second, what role is the ESCo model likely to play in the transition to a low-carbon UK energy system? To answer these, the paper examines the core characteristics of the ESCo model, relative to the EUCo model. The paper then examines how ESCos have co-evolved with the various dimensions of the energy system (i.e. ecosystems, institutions, user practices, technologies and business models) to provide insight into how ESCos might help to shape the future UK energy system. We suggest that institutional and technological changes within the UK energy system could result in a more favourable selection environment for ESCos, consequently enabling the ESCo model to proliferate at the expense of the EUCo model. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd

Inattentive Consumers in Markets for Services

In an experiment on markets for services, we find that consumers are likely to stick to default tariffs and achieve suboptimal outcomes. We find that inattention to the task of choosing a better tariff is likely to be a substantial problem in addition to any task and tariff complexity effect. The institutional setup on which we primarily model our experiment is the UK electricity and gas markets, and our conclusion is that the new measures by the UK regulator Ofgem to improve consumer outcomes are likely to be of limited impact

Data-driven discovery of molecular photoswitches with multioutput Gaussian processes

Photoswitchable molecules display two or more isomeric forms that may be accessed using light. Separating the electronic absorption bands of these isomers is key to selectively addressing a specific isomer and achieving high photostationary states whilst overall red-shifting the absorption bands serves to limit material damage due to UV-exposure and increases penetration depth in photopharmacological applications. Engineering these properties into a system through synthetic design however, remains a challenge. Here, we present a data-driven discovery pipeline for molecular photoswitches underpinned by dataset curation and multitask learning with Gaussian processes. In the prediction of electronic transition wavelengths, we demonstrate that a multioutput Gaussian process (MOGP) trained using labels from four photoswitch transition wavelengths yields the strongest predictive performance relative to single-task models as well as operationally outperforming time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) in terms of the wall-clock time for prediction. We validate our proposed approach experimentally by screening a library of commercially available photoswitchable molecules. Through this screen, we identified several motifs that displayed separated electronic absorption bands of their isomers, exhibited red-shifted absorptions, and are suited for information transfer and photopharmacological applications. Our curated dataset, code, as well as all models are made available at https://github.com/Ryan-Rhys/The-Photoswitch-Dataset

Infrastructure transformation as a socio-technical process - Implications for the governance of energy distribution networks in the UK

This paper seeks to uncover and examine the complex set of governance challenges associated with transforming energy distribution networks, which play a key enabling role in a low carbon energy transition. We argue that, although the importance of such infrastructure networks to sustainability and low carbon transitions in the energy, water and mobility sectors is clear, there is relatively little understanding of the social and institutional dimension of these systems and appropriate governance strategies for their transformation. This may be because the prevalent model of infrastructure governance in the energy and other sectors has prioritised short term time horizons and static efficiencies. In this paper we draw on the social shaping of technology literature to develop a broader understanding of infrastructure change as a dynamic socio-technical process. The empirical focus of the paper is on the development of more flexible and sustainable energy distribution systems as key enablers for the UK's low carbon transition. Focusing on electricity and heat networks we identify a range of governance challenges along different phases of the 'infrastructure lifecycle', and we draw lessons for the development of governance frameworks for the transformation of energy infrastructure more generally