Is late-life dependency increasing or not? A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS)

Background: Little is known about how the proportions of dependency states have changed between generational cohorts of older people. We aimed to estimate years lived in different dependency states at age 65 years in 1991 and 2011, and new projections of future demand for care. Methods: In this population-based study, we compared two Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and CFAS II) of older people (aged ≥65 years) who were permanently registered with a general practice in three defined geographical areas (Cambridgeshire, Newcastle, and Nottingham; UK). These studies were done two decades apart (1991 and 2011). General practices provided lists of individuals to be contacted and were asked to exclude those who had died or might die over the next month. Baseline interviews were done in the community and care homes. Participants were stratified by age, and interviews occurred only after written informed consent was obtained. Information collected included basic sociodemographics, cognitive status, urinary incontinence, and self-reported ability to do activities of daily living. CFAS I was assigned as the 1991 cohort and CFAS II as the 2011 cohort, and both studies provided prevalence estimates of dependency in four states: high dependency (24-h care), medium dependency (daily care), low dependency (less than daily), and independent. Years in each dependency state were calculated by Sullivan's method. To project future demands for social care, the proportions in each dependency state (by age group and sex) were applied to the 2014 England population projections. Findings: Between 1991 and 2011, there were significant increases in years lived from age 65 years with low dependency (1·7 years [95% CI 1·0-2·4] for men and 2·4 years [1·8-3·1] for women) and increases with high dependency (0·9 years [0·2-1·7] for men and 1·3 years [0·5-2·1] for women). The majority of men's extra years of life were spent independent (36·3%) or with low dependency (36·3%) whereas for women the majority were spent with low dependency (58·0%), and only 4·8% were independent. There were substantial reductions in the proportions with medium and high dependency who lived in care homes, although, if these dependency and care home proportions remain constant in the future, further population ageing will require an extra 71 215 care home places by 2025. Interpretation: On average older men now spend 2·4 years and women 3·0 years with substantial care needs, and most will live in the community. These findings have considerable implications for families of older people who provide the majority of unpaid care, but the findings also provide valuable new information for governments and care providers planning the resources and funding required for the care of their future ageing populations. Funding: Medical Research Council (G9901400) and (G06010220), with support from the National Institute for Health Research Comprehensive Local research networks in West Anglia and Trent, UK, and Neurodegenerative Disease Research Network in Newcastle, UK

The newcastle 85+ study

Background: Low vitamin D status is common in very old adults which may have adverse consequences for muscle function, a major predictor of disability. Aims: To explore the association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations and disability trajectories in very old adults and to determine whether there is an ‘adequate’ 25(OH)D concentration which might protect against a faster disability trajectory. Methodology: A total of 775 participants from the Newcastle 85+ Study for who 25(OH)D concentration at baseline was available. Serum 25(OH)D concentrations of 50 nmol/L were used as cut-offs to define low, moderate and high vitamin D status, respectively. Disability was defined as difficulty in performing 17 activities of daily living, at baseline, after 18, 36 and 60 months. Results: A three-trajectory model was derived (low-to-mild, mild-to-moderate and moderate-to-severe). In partially adjusted models, participants with 25(OH)D concentrations <25 nmol/L were more likely to have moderate and severe disability trajectories, even after adjusting for sex, living in an institution, season, cognitive status, BMI and vitamin D supplement use. However, this association disappeared after further adjustment for physical activity. Conclusions: Vitamin D status does not appear to influence the trajectories of disability in very old adults.publishersversionpublishe

Is late-life dependency increasing or not? A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS)

Background: Little is known about how dependency levels have changed between generational cohorts of older people. We estimated years lived in different care states at age 65 in 1991 and 2011 and new projections of future demand for care. Methods: Two population-based studies of older people in defined geographical areas conducted two decades apart (the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies) provided prevalence estimates of dependency in four states: high (24-hour care); medium (daily care); low (less than daily); independent. Years in each dependency state were calculated by Sullivan’s method. To project future demand, the proportions in each dependency state (by age group and sex) were applied to the 2014 England population projections. Findings: Between 1991 and 2011 there were significant increases in years lived from age 65 with low (men:1·7 years, 95%CI 1·0-2·4; women:2·4 years, 95%CI 1·8-3·1) and high dependency (men:0·9 years, 95%CI 0·2-1·7; women:1·3 years, 95%CI 0·5-2·1). The majority of men’s extra years of life were independent (36%) or with low dependency (36%) whilst for women the majority were spent with low dependency (58%), only 5% being independent. There were substantial reductions in the proportions with medium and high dependency who lived in care homes, although, if these dependency and care home proportions remain constant in the future, further population ageing will require an extra 71,000 care home places by 2025. Interpretation: On average older men now spend 2.4 years and women 3.0 years with substantial care needs (medium or high dependency), and most will live in the community. These findings have considerable implications for older people’s families who provide the majority of unpaid care, but the findings also supply valuable new information for governments and care providers planning the resources and funding required for the care of their future ageing populations

The effect of smoking on the duration of life with and without disability, Belgium 1997-2011

Background: Smoking is the single most important health threat yet there is no consistency as to whether non-smokers experience a compression of years lived with disability compared to (ex-)smokers. The objectives of the manuscript are (1) to assess the effect of smoking on the average years lived without disability (Disability Free Life Expectancy (DFLE)) and with disability (Disability Life Expectancy (DLE)) and (2) to estimate the extent to which these effects are due to better survival or reduced disability in never smokers. Methods. Data on disability and mortality were provided by the Belgian Health Interview Survey 1997 and 2001 and a 10 years mortality follow-up of the survey participants. Disability was defined as difficulties in activities of daily living (ADL), in mobility, in continence or in sensory (vision, hearing) functions. Poisson and multinomial logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the probabilities of death and the prevalence of disability by age, gender and smoking status adjusted for socioeconomic position. The Sullivan method was used to estimate DFLE and DLE at age 30. The contribution of mortality and of disability to smoking related differences in DFLE and DLE was assessed using decomposition methods. Results: Compared to never smokers, ex-smokers have a shorter life expectancy (LE) and DFLE but the number of years lived with disability is somewhat larger. For both sexes, the higher disability prevalence is the main contributing factor to the difference in DFLE and DLE. Smokers have a shorter LE, DFLE and DLE compared to never smokers. Both higher mortality and higher disability prevalence contribute to the difference in DFLE, but mortality is more important among males. Although both male and female smokers experience higher disability prevalence, their higher mortality outweighs their disability disadvantage resulting in a shorter DLE. Conclusion: Smoking kills and shortens both life without and life with disability. Smoking related disability can however not be ignored, given its contribution to the excess years with disability especially in younger age groups

Losing the Ability in Activities of Daily Living in the Oldest Old: A Hierarchic Disability Scale from the Newcastle 85+ Study

Objectives: To investigate the order in which 85 year olds develop difficulty in performing a wide range of daily activities covering basic personal care, household care and mobility. Design: Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a cohort study. Setting: Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside, UK. Participants: Individuals born in 1921, registered with participating general practices. Measurements: Detailed health assessment including 17 activities of daily living related to basic personal care, household care and mobility. Questions were of the form ‘Can you … ’ rather than ‘Do you… ’ Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to confirm a single underlying dimension for the items and Mokken Scaling was used to determine a subsequent hierarchy. Validity of the hierarchical scale was assessed by its associations with known predictors of disability. Results: 839 people within the Newcastle 85+ study for whom complete information was available on self-reported Activities of Daily Living (ADL). PCA confirmed a single underlying dimension; Mokken scaling confirmed a hierarchic scale where ‘Cutting toenails ’ was the first item with which participants had difficulty and ‘feeding ’ the last. The ordering of loss differed between men and women. Difficulty with ‘shopping ’ and ‘heavy housework ’ were reported earlier by women whilst men reported ‘walking 400 yards ’ earlier. Items formed clusters corresponding to strength, balance, lower and upper bod

Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to population ageing and a proportionate increase in demand for care-home places unless innovative health and social care interventions are found.</p

Prevalence of protein intake below recommended in community‐dwelling older adults: a meta‐analysis across cohorts from the PROMISS consortium

European Horizon 2020 PROMISS Project ‘PRevention Of Malnutrition In Senior Subjects in the EU’, (grant agreement no. 678732). The content only reflects the author’s view and the commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.Background: Lower protein intake in older adults is associated with loss of muscle mass and strength. The present study aimed to provide a pooled estimate of the overall prevalence of protein intake below recommended (according to different cut-off values) among community-dwelling older adults, both within the general older population and within specific subgroups. Methods: As part of the PRevention Of Malnutrition In Senior Subjects in the EU (PROMISS) project, a meta-analysis was performed using data from four cohorts (from the Netherlands, UK, Canada, and USA) and four national surveys [from the Netherlands, Finland (two), and Italy]. Within those studies, data on protein and energy intake of community-dwelling men and women aged ≥55 years were obtained by either a food frequency questionnaire, 24 h recalls administered on 2 or 3 days, or food diaries administered on 3 days. Protein intake below recommended was based on the recommended dietary allowance of 0.8 g/kg body weight (BW)/d, by using adjusted BW (aBW) instead of actual BW. Cut-off values of 1.0 and 1.2 were applied in additional analyses. Prevalences were also examined for subgroups according to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), education level, appetite, living status, and recent weight loss. Results: The study sample comprised 8107 older persons. Mean ± standard deviation protein intake ranged from 64.3 ± 22.3 (UK) to 80.6 ± 23.7 g/d [the Netherlands (cohort)] or from 0.94 ± 0.38 (USA) to 1.17z ± 0.30 g/kg aBW/d (Italy) when related to BW. The overall pooled prevalence of protein intake below recommended was 21.5% (95% confidence interval: 14.0–30.1), 46.7% (38.3–55.3), and 70.8% (65.1–76.3) using the 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2 cut-off value, respectively. A higher prevalence was observed among women, individuals with higher BMI, and individuals with poor appetite. The prevalence differed only marginally by age, education level, living status, and recent weight loss. Conclusions: In community-dwelling older adults, the prevalence of protein intake below the current recommendation of 0.8 g/kg aBW/d is substantial (14–30%) and increases to 65–76% according to a cut-off value of 1.2 g/kg aBW/d. To what extent the protein intakes are below the requirements of these older people warrants further investigation.publishersversionpublishe

Assessing the validity of the global activity limitation indicator in fourteen European countries

Background: The Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI), the measure underlying the European indicator Healthy Life Years (HLY), is widely used to compare population health across countries. However, the comparability of the item has been questioned. This study aims to further validate the GALI in the adult European population. Methods: Data from the European Health Interview Survey (EHIS), covering 14 European countries and 152,787 individuals, were used to explore how the GALI was associated with other measures of disability and whether the GALI was consistent or reflected different disability situations in different countries. Results: When considering each country separately or all combined, we found that the GALI was significantly associated with measures of activities of daily living, instrumental activity of daily living, and functional limitations (P < 0.001 in all cases). Associations were largest for activity of daily living and lowest though still high for functional limitations. For each measure, the magnitude of the association was similar across most countries. Overall, however, the GALI differed significantly between countries in terms of how it reflected each of the three disability measures (P < 0.001 in all cases). We suspect cross-country differences in the results may be due to variations in: the implementation of the EHIS, the perception of functioning and limitations, and the understanding of the GALI question. Conclusion: The study both confirms the relevance of this indicator to measure general activity limitations in the European population and the need for caution when comparing the level of the GALI from one country to another

What Will Happen If We Do Nothing To Control Trachoma: Health Expectancies for Blinding Trachoma in Southern Sudan

Summary measures of population health attempt to express disease burden in terms of a common “currency” and are useful in establishing public health priorities. Disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a health gap measure, have previously been used to estimate burden due to trachoma; however, their methods and results have limitations. This study demonstrates the application of the health expectancies to estimate burden due to trachoma. The study illustrates the future burden associated with doing nothing to control trachoma in Southern Sudan: a substantial proportion of remaining life expectancy spent with trichiasis and low vision or blindness for both men and women, with a disproportionate burden falling on women. The results presented are intuitively meaningful for policy makers and a non-technical audience and compare favourably with other indicators such as mortality and incidence rates or DALYs, which are not generally easily understood. Unless action is taken by further delivery of trachoma control interventions, then populations in Southern Sudan can expect to spend a substantial proportion of their life with low vision or blindness due to trachoma

MODEM: a comprehensive approach to modelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for dementia. Protocol paper

Background The MODEM project (A comprehensive approach to MODelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for DEMentia) explores how changes in arrangements for the future treatment and care of people living with dementia, and support for family and other unpaid carers, could result in better outcomes and more efficient use of resources. Methods MODEM starts with a systematic mapping of the literature on effective and (potentially) cost-effective interventions in dementia care. Those findings, as well as data from a cohort, will then be used to model the quality of life and cost impacts of making these evidence-based interventions more widely available in England over the period from now to 2040. Modelling will use a suite of models, combining microsimulation and macrosimulation methods, modelling the costs and outcomes of care, both for an individual over the life-course from the point of dementia diagnosis, and for individuals and England as a whole in a particular year. Project outputs will include an online Dementia Evidence Toolkit, making evidence summaries and a literature database available free to anyone, papers in academic journals and other written outputs, and a MODEM Legacy Model, which will enable local commissioners of services to apply the model to their own populations. Discussion Modelling the effects of evidence-based cost-effective interventions and making this information widely available has the potential to improve the health and quality of life both of people with dementia and their carers, while ensuring that resources are used efficiently