Real-time risk analysis for hybrid earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold

Moral economies of consumption

The aim of this article is twofold: first, to bring together debates about enduring normative concerns surrounding the morality of consumption with more recent concerns about the ways specific moralities are constituted in and through markets. The second aim is to develop the concept of ‘moral economy’ and call for an approach to its study, attentive to how moralities of consumption develop through interactions between instituted systems of provision, forms of state regulation, customs within communities and the everyday reflections of consumers about the things that matter to them. As consumers are increasingly asked to factor environmental and fair labour concerns into their purchase and post-purchase habits, there is a real need to understand how moralities of consumption are both formatted through institutional frameworks and shaped everyday by actors from within. After developing a framework for the study of moral economies, this article explores in depth the experiences of one couple in relation to the cessation of a cardboard recycling collection in Shropshire (England) to show why a multilevel perspective is needed to appreciate the place of morality within the market

Early Predictors of Objectively Measured Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviour in 8–10 Year Old Children: The Gateshead Millennium Study

With a number of studies suggesting associations between early life influences and later chronic disease risk, it is suggested that associations between early growth and later physical activity (PA) may be a mediator. However, conflicting evidence exists for association between birth weight and childhood PA. In addition, it is important to know what other, potentially modifiable, factors may influence PA in children given its' association with childhood and later adiposity. We used the Gateshead Millennium Study (GMS) to identify predictors of childhood PA levels. The GMS is a cohort of 1029 infants born in 1999–2000 in Gateshead in northern England. Throughout infancy and early childhood, detailed information was collected. Assessments at age 9 years included body composition, objective measures of habitual PA and a range of lifestyle factors. Mean total volumes of PA (accelerometer count per minute, cpm) and moderate-vigorous intensity PA (MVPA), and the percentage of time spent in sedentary behaviour (%SB) were quantified and related to potential predictors using linear regression and path analysis. Children aged 8–10 years were included. Significant differences were seen in all three outcome variables between sexes and season of measurement (p<0.001). Restricting children’s access to television was associated with decreased MVPA. Increased paternal age was associated with significant increases in %SB (p = 0.02), but not MVPA or total PA. Increased time spent in out of school sports clubs was significantly associated with decreased %SB (p = 0.02). No significant associations were seen with birth weight. A range of factors, directly or indirectly, influenced PA and sedentary behaviour. However, associations differed between the different constructs of PA and %SB. Exploring further the sex differences in PA would appear to be useful, as would encouraging children to join out of school sports clubs

Risk-taking attitudes and their association with process and outcomes of cardiac care: a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prior research reveals that processes and outcomes of cardiac care differ across sociodemographic strata. One potential contributing factor to such differences is the personality traits of individuals within these strata. We examined the association between risk-taking attitudes and cardiac patients' clinical and demographic characteristics, the likelihood of undergoing invasive cardiac procedures and survival.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied a large inception cohort of patients who underwent cardiac catheterization between July 1998 and December 2001. Detailed clinical and demographic data were collected at time of cardiac catheterization and through a mailed survey one year post-catheterization. The survey included three general risk attitude items from the Jackson Personality Inventory. Patients' (n = 6294) attitudes toward risk were categorized as risk-prone versus non-risk-prone and were assessed for associations with baseline clinical and demographic characteristics, treatment received (i.e., medical therapy, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)), and survival (to December 2005).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>2827 patients (45%) were categorized as risk-prone. Having risk-prone attitudes was associated with younger age (p < .001), male sex (p < .001), current smoking (p < .001) and higher household income (p < .001). Risk-prone patients were more likely to have CABG surgery in unadjusted (Odds Ratio [OR] = 1.21; 95% CI 1.08–1.36) and adjusted (OR = 1.18; 95% CI 1.02–1.36) models, but were no more likely to have PCI or any revascularization. Having risk-prone attitudes was associated with better survival in an unadjusted survival analysis (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 0.78 (95% CI 0.66–0.93), but not in a risk-adjusted analysis (HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.77–1.10).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These exploratory findings suggest that patient attitudes toward risk taking may <b>contribute to </b>some of the documented differences in use of invasive cardiac procedures. An awareness of these associations could help healthcare providers as they counsel patients regarding cardiac care decisions.</p

State of the science and future directions for research on HIV and cancer : Summary of a joint workshop sponsored by IARC and NCI

An estimated 38 million people live with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) worldwide and are at excess risk for multiple cancer types. Elevated cancer risks in people living with HIV (PLWH) are driven primarily by increased exposure to carcinogens, most notably oncogenic viruses acquired through shared transmission routes, plus acceleration of viral carcinogenesis by HIV-related immunosuppression. In the era of widespread antiretroviral therapy (ART), life expectancy of PLWH has increased, with cancer now a leading cause of co-morbidity and death. Furthermore, the types of cancers occurring among PLWH are shifting over time and vary in their relative burden in different parts of the world. In this context, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) convened a meeting in September 2022 of multinational and multidisciplinary experts to focus on cancer in PLWH. This report summarizes the proceedings, including a review of the state of the science of cancer descriptive epidemiology, etiology, molecular tumor characterization, primary and secondary prevention, treatment disparities and survival in PLWH around the world. A consensus of key research priorities and recommendations in these domains is also presented

Investigation into the effects of surface stripping ZnO nanosheets

ZnO nanosheets are polycrystalline nanostructures that are used in devices including solar cells and gas sensors. However, for efficient and reproducible device operation and contact behaviour the conductivity characteristics must be controlled and surface contaminants removed. Here we use low doses of argon bombardment to remove surface contamination and make reproducible lower resistance contacts. Higher doses strip the surface of the nanosheets altering the contact type from near-ohmic to rectifying by removing the donor-type defects, which photoluminescence shows to be concentrated in the near-surface. Controlled doses of argon treatments allow nanosheets to be customised for device formation

Impact of nonoptimal intakes of saturated, polyunsaturated, and trans fat on global burdens of coronary heart disease

Background: Saturated fat (SFA), ω‐6 (n‐6) polyunsaturated fat (PUFA), and trans fat (TFA) influence risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but attributable CHD mortalities by country, age, sex, and time are unclear. Methods and Results: National intakes of SFA, n‐6 PUFA, and TFA were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical model based on country‐specific dietary surveys; food availability data; and, for TFA, industry reports on fats/oils and packaged foods. Etiologic effects of dietary fats on CHD mortality were derived from meta‐analyses of prospective cohorts and CHD mortality rates from the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases study. Absolute and proportional attributable CHD mortality were computed using a comparative risk assessment framework. In 2010, nonoptimal intakes of n‐6 PUFA, SFA, and TFA were estimated to result in 711 800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 680 700–745 000), 250 900 (95% UI 236 900–265 800), and 537 200 (95% UI 517 600–557 000) CHD deaths per year worldwide, accounting for 10.3% (95% UI 9.9%–10.6%), 3.6%, (95% UI 3.5%–3.6%) and 7.7% (95% UI 7.6%–7.9%) of global CHD mortality. Tropical oil–consuming countries were estimated to have the highest proportional n‐6 PUFA– and SFA‐attributable CHD mortality, whereas Egypt, Pakistan, and Canada were estimated to have the highest proportional TFA‐attributable CHD mortality. From 1990 to 2010 globally, the estimated proportional CHD mortality decreased by 9% for insufficient n‐6 PUFA and by 21% for higher SFA, whereas it increased by 4% for higher TFA, with the latter driven by increases in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Conclusions: Nonoptimal intakes of n‐6 PUFA, TFA, and SFA each contribute to significant estimated CHD mortality, with important heterogeneity across countries that informs nation‐specific clinical, public health, and policy priorities.peer-reviewe