An improved near-surface specific humidity and air temperature climatology for the SSM/I satellite period

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 32 (2015): 412–433, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00080.1.A near-surface specific humidity (Qa) and air temperature (Ta) climatology on daily and 0.25° grids was constructed by the objectively analyzed air–sea fluxes (OAFlux) project by objectively merging two recent satellite-derived high-resolution analyses, the OAFlux existing 1° analysis, and atmospheric reanalyses. The two satellite products include the multi-instrument microwave regression (MIMR) Qa and Ta analysis and the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes, version 3 (GSSTF3), Qa analysis. This study assesses the degree of improvement made by OAFlux using buoy time series measurements at 137 locations and a global empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. There are a total of 130 855 collocated daily values for Qa and 283 012 collocated daily values for Ta in the buoy evaluation. It is found that OAFlux Qa has a mean difference close to 0 and a root-mean-square (RMS) difference of 0.73 g kg−1, and Ta has a mean difference of −0.03°C and an RMS difference of 0.45°C. OAFlux shows no major systematic bias with respect to buoy measurements over all buoy locations except for the vicinity of the Gulf Stream boundary current, where the RMS difference exceeds 1.8°C in Ta and 1.2 g kg−1 in Qa. The buoy evaluation indicates that OAFlux represents an improvement over MIMR and GSSTF3. The global EOF-based intercomparison analysis indicates that OAFlux has a similar spatial–temporal variability pattern with that of three atmospheric reanalyses including MERRA, NCEP-1, and ERA-Interim, but that it differs from GSSTF3 and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR).This study was supported by the NOAA Ocean Climate Observation (OCO) program under Grant NA09OAR4320129.2015-09-0

Prevalence of psychiatric co-morbidity in treatment-seeking problem gamblers:A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: The aim of this paper was to systematically review and meta-analyse the prevalence of co-morbid psychiatric disorders (DSM-IV Axis I disorders) among treatment-seeking problem gamblers. Methods: A systematic search was conducted for peer-reviewed studies that provided prevalence estimates of Axis I psychiatric disorders in individuals seeking psychological or pharmacological treatment for problem gambling (including pathological gambling). Meta-analytic techniques were performed to estimate the weighted mean effect size and heterogeneity across studies. Results: Results from 36 studies identified high rates of co-morbid current (74.8%, 95% CI 36.5–93.9) and lifetime (75.5%, 95% CI 46.5–91.8) Axis I disorders. There were high rates of current mood disorders (23.1%, 95% CI 14.9–34.0), alcohol use disorders (21.2%, 95% CI 15.6–28.1), anxiety disorders (17.6%, 95% CI 10.8–27.3) and substance (non-alcohol) use disorders (7.0%, 95% CI 1.7–24.9). Specifically, the highest mean prevalence of current psychiatric disorders was for nicotine dependence (56.4%, 95% CI 35.7–75.2) and major depressive disorder (29.9%, 95% CI 20.5–41.3), with smaller estimates for alcohol abuse (18.2%, 95% CI 13.4–24.2), alcohol dependence (15.2%, 95% CI 10.2–22.0), social phobia (14.9%, 95% CI 2.0–59.8), generalised anxiety disorder (14.4%, 95% CI 3.9–40.8), panic disorder (13.7%, 95% CI 6.7–26.0), post-traumatic stress disorder (12.3%, 95% CI 3.4–35.7), cannabis use disorder (11.5%, 95% CI 4.8–25.0), attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (9.3%, 95% CI 4.1–19.6), adjustment disorder (9.2%, 95% CI 4.8–17.2), bipolar disorder (8.8%, 95% CI 4.4–17.1) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (8.2%, 95% CI 3.4–18.6). There were no consistent patterns according to gambling problem severity, type of treatment facility and study jurisdiction. Although these estimates were robust to the inclusion of studies with non-representative sampling biases, they should be interpreted with caution as they were highly variable across studies. Conclusions: The findings highlight the need for gambling treatment services to undertake routine screening and assessment of psychiatric co-morbidity and provide treatment approaches that adequately manage these co-morbid disorders. Further research is required to explore the reasons for the variability observed in the prevalence estimates

Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil Moisture

Soil moisture anomalies underpin a number of critical hydrological phenomena with socioeconomic consequences, yet systematic studies of soil moisture predictability are limited. Here, we use a data-adaptive technique, Linear Inverse Modeling, which has proved useful as an indication of predictability in other fields, to investigate the predictability of soil moisture in northern California. This approach yields a model of soil moisture at 10 stations in the region, with results that indicate the possibility of skillful forecasts at each for lead times of 1&ndash;2 weeks. An important advantage of this model is the a priori identification of forecasts of opportunity&mdash;conditions under which the model&rsquo;s forecasts may be expected to have particularly high skill. Given that forecast errors (and inversely, their skill) can be estimated in advance, these findings have the potential to greatly increase the utility of soil moisture forecasts for practical applications including drought and flood forecasting.</p

Association of Blood Biomarkers With Acute Sport-Related Concussion in Collegiate Athletes: Findings From the NCAA and Department of Defense CARE Consortium

Importance: There is potential scientific and clinical value in validation of objective biomarkers for sport-related concussion (SRC). Objective: To investigate the association of acute-phase blood biomarker levels with SRC in collegiate athletes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, prospective, case-control study was conducted by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) and the US Department of Defense Concussion Assessment, Research, and Education (CARE) Consortium from February 20, 2015, to May 31, 2018, at 6 CARE Advanced Research Core sites. A total of 504 collegiate athletes with concussion, contact sport control athletes, and non-contact sport control athletes completed clinical testing and blood collection at preseason baseline, the acute postinjury period, 24 to 48 hours after injury, the point of reporting being asymptomatic, and 7 days after return to play. Data analysis was conducted from March 1 to November 30, 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase-L1 (UCH-L1), neurofilament light chain, and tau were quantified using the Quanterix Simoa multiplex assay. Clinical outcome measures included the Sport Concussion Assessment Tool-Third Edition (SCAT-3) symptom evaluation, Standardized Assessment of Concussion, Balance Error Scoring System, and Brief Symptom Inventory 18. Results: A total of 264 athletes with concussion (mean [SD] age, 19.08 [1.24] years; 211 [79.9%] male), 138 contact sport controls (mean [SD] age, 19.03 [1.27] years; 107 [77.5%] male), and 102 non-contact sport controls (mean [SD] age, 19.39 [1.25] years; 82 [80.4%] male) were included in the study. Athletes with concussion had significant elevation in GFAP (mean difference, 0.430 pg/mL; 95% CI, 0.339-0.521 pg/mL; P < .001), UCH-L1 (mean difference, 0.449 pg/mL; 95% CI, 0.167-0.732 pg/mL; P < .001), and tau levels (mean difference, 0.221 pg/mL; 95% CI, 0.046-0.396 pg/mL; P = .004) at the acute postinjury time point compared with preseason baseline. Longitudinally, a significant interaction (group × visit) was found for GFAP (F7,1507.36 = 16.18, P < .001), UCH-L1 (F7,1153.09 = 5.71, P < .001), and tau (F7,1480.55 = 6.81, P < .001); the interaction for neurofilament light chain was not significant (F7,1506.90 = 1.33, P = .23). The area under the curve for the combination of GFAP and UCH-L1 in differentiating athletes with concussion from contact sport controls at the acute postinjury period was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.64-0.78; P < .001); the acute postinjury area under the curve for all 4 biomarkers combined was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65-0.79; P < .001). Beyond SCAT-3 symptom score, GFAP at the acute postinjury time point was associated with the classification of athletes with concussion from contact controls (β = 12.298; 95% CI, 2.776-54.481; P = .001) and non-contact sport controls (β = 5.438; 95% CI, 1.676-17.645; P = .005). Athletes with concussion with loss of consciousness or posttraumatic amnesia had significantly higher levels of GFAP than athletes with concussion with neither loss of consciousness nor posttraumatic amnesia at the acute postinjury time point (mean difference, 0.583 pg/mL; 95% CI, 0.369-0.797 pg/mL; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: The results suggest that blood biomarkers can be used as research tools to inform the underlying pathophysiological mechanism of concussion and provide additional support for future studies to optimize and validate biomarkers for potential clinical use in SRC

Potential caveats in land surface model evaluations using the US drought monitor: roles of base periods and drought indicators

The US drought monitor (USDM) has been widely used as an observational reference for evaluating land surface model (LSM) simulation of drought. This study investigates potential caveats in such evaluation when the USDM and LSMs use different base periods and drought indices to identify drought. The retrospective national water model (NWM) v2.0 simulation (1993&ndash;2018) was used to exemplify the evaluation, supplemented by North American land data assimilation system phase 2 (NLDAS-2). Over their common period (2000&ndash;2018), in distinct contrast with the USDM which shows high drought occurrence (&gt;50%) in the western half of the continental US (CONUS) and the southeastern US with low occurrence (&lt;30%) elsewhere, the NWM and NLDAS-2 based on soil moisture percentiles (SMPs) consistently show higher drought occurrence (30%&ndash;40%) in the central and southeastern US than the rest of the CONUS. Much of the differences between the LSMs and USDM, particularly the strong LSM underestimation of drought occurrence in the western and southeastern US, are not attributed to the LSM deficiencies, but rather the lack of long-term drought in the LSM simulations due to their relatively short lengths. Specifically, the USDM integrates drought indices with century-long periods of record, which enables it to capture both short-term (&lt;6 months) drought and long-term (⩾6 months) drought, whereas the relatively short retrospective simulations of the LSMs allows them to adequately capture short-term drought but not long-term drought. In addition, the USDM integrates many drought indices whereas the NWM results are solely based on the SMP, further adding to the inconsistency. The high occurrence of long-term drought in the western and southeastern US in the USDM is further found to be driven collectively by the post-2000 long-term warm sea surface temperature (SST) trend, cold Pacific decadal oscillation and warm Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, all of which are typical leading patterns of global SST variability that can induce drought conditions in the western, central, and southeastern US. Our findings highlight the effects of the above caveats and suggest that LSM evaluation should stay qualitative when the caveats are considerable. &nbsp;</p

Pending recovery in the strength of the meridional overturning circulation at 26° N

The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26∘ N has now been continuously measured by the RAPID array over the period April 2004–September 2018. This record provides unique insight into the variability of the large-scale ocean circulation, previously only measured by sporadic snapshots of basin-wide transport from hydrographic sections. The continuous measurements have unveiled striking variability on timescales of days to a decade, driven largely by wind forcing, contrasting with previous expectations about a slowly varying buoyancy-forced large-scale ocean circulation. However, these measurements were primarily observed during a warm state of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) which has been steadily declining since a peak in 2008–2010. In 2013–2015, a period of strong buoyancy forcing by the atmosphere drove intense water-mass transformation in the subpolar North Atlantic and provides a unique opportunity to investigate the response of the large-scale ocean circulation to buoyancy forcing. Modelling studies suggest that the AMOC in the subtropics responds to such events with an increase in overturning transport, after a lag of 3–9 years. At 45∘ N, observations suggest that the AMOC may already be increasing. Examining 26∘ N, we find that the AMOC is no longer weakening, though the recent transport is not above the long-term mean. Extending the record backwards in time at 26∘ N with ocean reanalysis from GloSea5, the transport fluctuations at 26∘ N are consistent with a 0- to 2-year lag from those at 45∘ N, albeit with lower magnitude. Given the short span of time and anticipated delays in the signal from the subpolar to subtropical gyres, it is not yet possible to determine whether the subtropical AMOC strength is recovering nor how the AMOC at 26∘ N responds to intense buoyancy forcing

The Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey IV: 1.1 and 0.35 mm Dust Continuum Emission in the Galactic Center Region

The Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey (BGPS) data for a six square degree region of the Galactic plane containing the Galactic center is analyzed and compared to infrared and radio continuum data. The BGPS 1.1 mm emission consists of clumps interconnected by a network of fainter filaments surrounding cavities, a few of which are filled with diffuse near-IR emission indicating the presence of warm dust or with radio continuum characteristic of HII regions or supernova remnants. New 350 {\mu}m images of the environments of the two brightest regions, Sgr A and B, are presented. Sgr B2 is the brightest mm-emitting clump in the Central Molecular Zone and may be forming the closest analog to a super star cluster in the Galaxy. The Central Molecular Zone (CMZ) contains the highest concentration of mm and sub-mm emitting dense clumps in the Galaxy. Most 1.1 mm features at positive longitudes are seen in silhouette against the 3.6 to 24 {\mu}m background observed by the Spitzer Space Telescope. However, only a few clumps at negative longitudes are seen in absorption, confirming the hypothesis that positive longitude clumps in the CMZ tend to be on the near-side of the Galactic center, consistent with the suspected orientation of the central bar in our Galaxy. Some 1.1 mm cloud surfaces are seen in emission at 8 {\mu}m, presumably due to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A ~0.2\degree (~30 pc) diameter cavity and infrared bubble between l \approx 0.0\degree and 0.2\degree surrounds the Arches and Quintuplet clusters and Sgr A. The bubble contains several clumpy dust filaments that point toward Sgr A\ast; its potential role in their formation is explored. [abstract truncated]Comment: 76 pages, 22 figures, published in ApJ: http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/721/1/137

Microblogging, constituency service and impression management – UK MPs and the use of Twitter

Twitter, a microblogging site which allows users to deliver statements, thoughts and links in 140 characters to followers as well as a wider Internet audience, is the latest online communications technology adopted by MPs. Assessing the use of early adopters, this article considers which MPs are most likely to use Twitter (e.g. tweeting), and how. Content analysis of tweeting MPs was conducted, and identified personal and political characteristics which may influence use. The data suggested that of the six characteristics tested, gender, party and seniority had most impact on adoption. Applying Jones and Pittman’s (1982) typology there is clear evidence that MPs use Twitter as a tool of impression management. Constituency service is a secondary function of the use of Twitter by MPs. Where MPs use Twitter as part of their constituency role it is to promote their local activity. We note that a small group of MPs use Twitter as a regular communication channel, but most are only occasionally dipping their toe into the microbloggersphere