Elevation and cholera: an epidemiological spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND: In highly populated African urban areas where access to clean water is a challenge, water source contamination is one of the most cited risk factors in a cholera epidemic. During the rainy season, where there is either no sewage disposal or working sewer system, runoff of rains follows the slopes and gets into the lower parts of towns where shallow wells could easily become contaminated by excretes. In cholera endemic areas, spatial information about topographical elevation could help to guide preventive interventions. This study aims to analyze the association between topographic elevation and the distribution of cholera cases in Harare during the cholera epidemic in 2008 and 2009. METHODS: We developed an ecological study using secondary data. First, we described attack rates by suburb and then calculated rate ratios using whole Harare as reference. We illustrated the average elevation and cholera cases by suburbs using geographical information. Finally, we estimated a generalized linear mixed model (under the assumption of a Poisson distribution) with an Empirical Bayesian approach to model the relation between the risk of cholera and the elevation in meters in Harare. We used a random intercept to allow for spatial correlation of neighboring suburbs. RESULTS: This study identifies a spatial pattern of the distribution of cholera cases in the Harare epidemic, characterized by a lower cholera risk in the highest elevation suburbs of Harare. The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each 100 meters of increase in the topographical elevation, the cholera risk was 30% lower with a rate ratio of 0.70 (95% confidence interval=0.66-0.76). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the risk reduction with an overall estimate of the rate ratio between 20% and 40%. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of considering topographical elevation as a geographical and environmental risk factor in order to plan cholera preventive activities linked with water and sanitation in endemic areas. Furthermore, elevation information, among other risk factors, could help to spatially orientate cholera control interventions during an epidemic

Anàlisi de l'empresa a partir de l'estat de fluxos d'efectiu

La finalitat bàsica d’aquesta tesi doctoral ha consistit en determinar d’una banda la rellevància de l’Estat de fluxos d’efectiu (EFE), dins de l’anàlisi d’estats comptables, demostrant que per poder realitzar una anàlisi complet de la situació patrimonial, econòmica i financera de l’empresa és imprescindible l’estudi i anàlisi de l’EFE i d’altra banda fer una proposta metodològica amb la finalitat de millorar l’actual estructura de l’EFE que ens presenta el Pla general de comptabilitat actual. Els objectius secundaris d’aquest treball d’investigació han estat determinar la importància de l’EFE en l’anàlisi de la situació financera a curt termini; demostrar la importància de l’activitat econòmica en l’estudi d’aquest document; i per últim demostrar la vàlua de la informació que aquest document aporta de forma individualitzada de les diferents activitats que l’empresa desenvolupa i sobre el grau d’interrelació existent entre elles.La finalidad básica de esta tesis doctoral ha consistido en determinar la relevancia del Estado de flujos de efectivo (EFE), dentro del análisis de estados contables, demostrando que para poder realizar un análisis completo de la situación patrimonial, económica y financiera de la empresa es imprescindible el estudio y análisis del EFE y por otro lado hacer una propuesta metodológica con el fin de mejorar la actual estructura del EFE que nos presenta el Plan general de contabilidad actual. Los objetivos secundarios de este trabajo de investigación han sido determinar la importancia del EFE en el análisis de la situación financiera a corto plazo; demostrar la importancia de la actividad económica en el estudio de este documento; y por último demostrar la importancia de la información que este documento aporta de forma individualizada de las diferentes actividades que la empresa desarrolla y sobre el grado de interrelación existente entre ellas

A fluid model for a relay node in an ad-hoc network: the case of heavy-tailed input

Relay nodes in an ad hoc network can be modelled as fluid queues, in which the available service capacity is shared by the input and output. In this paper such a relay node is considered; jobs arrive according to a Poisson process and bring along a random amount of work. The total transmission capacity is fairly shared, meaning that, when n jobs are present, each job transmits traffic into the queue at rate 1/(n + 1) while the queue is drained at the same rate of 1/(n + 1). Where previous studies mainly concentrated on the case of exponentially distributed job sizes, the present paper addresses regularly varying jobs. The focus lies on the tail asymptotics of the sojourn time S. Using sample-path arguments, it is proven that P {S > x} behaves roughly as the residual job size, i.e., if the job sizes are regularly varying of index -nu, the tail of S is regularly varying of index 1 - nu. In addition, we address the tail asymptotics of other performance metrics, such as the workload in the queue, the flow transfer time and the queueing delay

Predicting the demand of physician workforce: an international model based on "crowd behaviors"

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Appropriateness of physician workforce greatly influences the quality of healthcare. When facing the crisis of physician shortages, the correction of manpower always takes an extended time period, and both the public and health personnel suffer. To calculate an appropriate number of Physician Density (PD) for a specific country, this study was designed to create a PD prediction model, based on health-related data from many countries.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twelve factors that could possibly impact physicians' demand were chosen, and data of these factors from 130 countries (by reviewing 195) were extracted. Multiple stepwise-linear regression was used to derive the PD prediction model, and a split-sample cross-validation procedure was performed to evaluate the generalizability of the results.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using data from 130 countries, with the consideration of the correlation between variables, and preventing multi-collinearity, seven out of the 12 predictor variables were selected for entry into the stepwise regression procedure. The final model was: PD = (5.014 - 0.128 × proportion under age 15 years + 0.034 × life expectancy)², with R²of 80.4%. Using the prediction equation, 70 countries had PDs with "negative discrepancy", while 58 had PDs with "positive discrepancy".</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study provided a regression-based PD model to calculate a "norm" number of PD for a specific country. A large PD discrepancy in a country indicates the needs to examine physician's workloads and their well-being, the effectiveness/efficiency of medical care, the promotion of population health and the team resource management.</p

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154,012 participants in 31 cohort

Evaluation of the current knowledge limitations in breast cancer research: a gap analysis

BACKGROUND A gap analysis was conducted to determine which areas of breast cancer research, if targeted by researchers and funding bodies, could produce the greatest impact on patients. METHODS Fifty-six Breast Cancer Campaign grant holders and prominent UK breast cancer researchers participated in a gap analysis of current breast cancer research. Before, during and following the meeting, groups in seven key research areas participated in cycles of presentation, literature review and discussion. Summary papers were prepared by each group and collated into this position paper highlighting the research gaps, with recommendations for action. RESULTS Gaps were identified in all seven themes. General barriers to progress were lack of financial and practical resources, and poor collaboration between disciplines. Critical gaps in each theme included: (1) genetics (knowledge of genetic changes, their effects and interactions); (2) initiation of breast cancer (how developmental signalling pathways cause ductal elongation and branching at the cellular level and influence stem cell dynamics, and how their disruption initiates tumour formation); (3) progression of breast cancer (deciphering the intracellular and extracellular regulators of early progression, tumour growth, angiogenesis and metastasis); (4) therapies and targets (understanding who develops advanced disease); (5) disease markers (incorporating intelligent trial design into all studies to ensure new treatments are tested in patient groups stratified using biomarkers); (6) prevention (strategies to prevent oestrogen-receptor negative tumours and the long-term effects of chemoprevention for oestrogen-receptor positive tumours); (7) psychosocial aspects of cancer (the use of appropriate psychosocial interventions, and the personal impact of all stages of the disease among patients from a range of ethnic and demographic backgrounds). CONCLUSION Through recommendations to address these gaps with future research, the long-term benefits to patients will include: better estimation of risk in families with breast cancer and strategies to reduce risk; better prediction of drug response and patient prognosis; improved tailoring of treatments to patient subgroups and development of new therapeutic approaches; earlier initiation of treatment; more effective use of resources for screening populations; and an enhanced experience for people with or at risk of breast cancer and their families. The challenge to funding bodies and researchers in all disciplines is to focus on these gaps and to drive advances in knowledge into improvements in patient care

Cisplatin-induced emesis: systematic review and meta-analysis of the ferret model and the effects of 5-HT3 receptor antagonists

PURPOSE: The ferret cisplatin emesis model has been used for ~30 years and enabled identification of clinically used anti-emetics. We provide an objective assessment of this model including efficacy of 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists to assess its translational validity. METHODS: A systematic review identified available evidence and was used to perform meta-analyses. RESULTS: Of 182 potentially relevant publications, 115 reported cisplatin-induced emesis in ferrets and 68 were included in the analysis. The majority (n = 53) used a 10 mg kg(−1) dose to induce acute emesis, which peaked after 2 h. More recent studies (n = 11) also used 5 mg kg(−1), which induced a biphasic response peaking at 12 h and 48 h. Overall, 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists reduced cisplatin (5 mg kg(−1)) emesis by 68% (45–91%) during the acute phase (day 1) and by 67% (48–86%) and 53% (38–68%, all P < 0.001), during the delayed phase (days 2, 3). In an analysis focused on the acute phase, the efficacy of ondansetron was dependent on the dosage and observation period but not on the dose of cisplatin. CONCLUSION: Our analysis enabled novel findings to be extracted from the literature including factors which may impact on the applicability of preclinical results to humans. It reveals that the efficacy of ondansetron is similar against low and high doses of cisplatin. Additionally, we showed that 5-HT(3) receptor antagonists have a similar efficacy during acute and delayed emesis, which provides a novel insight into the pharmacology of delayed emesis in the ferret

Lack of association between serological evidence of past Coxiella burnetii infection and incident ischaemic heart disease: nested case-control study

BACKGROUND: Coxiella burnetii causes the common worldwide zoonotic infection, Q fever. It has been previously suggested that patients who had recovered from acute Q fever (whether symptomatic or otherwise) may be at increased risk of ischaemic heart disease. We undertook this study to determine if past infection with Coxiella burnetii, the aetiological agent of Q fever, is a risk factor for the subsequent development of ischaemic heart disease. METHODS: A nested case-control study within the Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction (PRIME). The PRIME study is a cohort study of 10,593 middle-aged men undertaken in France and Northern Ireland in the 1990s. A total of 335 incident cases of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) were identified and each case was matched to 2 IHD free controls. Q fever seropositivity was determined using a commercial IgG ELISA method. RESULTS: Seroprevalence of Q fever in the controls from Northern Ireland and France were 7.8% and 9.0% respectively. No association was seen between seropositivity and age, smoking, lipid levels, or inflammatory markers. The unadjusted odds ratio (95% CI) for Q fever seropositivity in cases compared to controls was 0.95 (0.59, 1.57). The relationship was substantially unaltered following adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and potential confounders. CONCLUSION: Serological evidence of past infection with C. burnetii was not found to be associated with an increased risk of IHD

The role of soluble fiber intake in patients under highly effective lipid-lowering therapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It has been demonstrated that statins can increase intestinal sterol absorption. Augments in phytosterolemia seems related to cardiovascular disease.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>We examined the role of soluble fiber intake in endogenous cholesterol synthesis and in sterol absorption among subjects under highly effective lipid-lowering therapy.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>In an open label, randomized, parallel-design study with blinded endpoints, subjects with primary hypercholesterolemia (n = 116) were assigned to receive during 12 weeks, a daily dose of 25 g of fiber (corresponding to 6 g of soluble fibers) plus rosuvastatin 40 mg (n = 28), rosuvastatin 40 mg alone (n = 30), sinvastatin 40 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg plus 25 g of fiber (n = 28), or sinvastatin 40 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg (n = 30) alone.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The four assigned therapies produced similar changes in total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides (p < 0.001 vs. baseline) and did not change HDL-cholesterol. Fiber intake decreased plasma campesterol (p < 0.001 vs. baseline), particularly among those patients receiving ezetimibe (p < 0.05 vs. other groups), and β-sitosterol (p = 0.03 vs. baseline), with a trend for lower levels in the group receiving fiber plus ezetimibe (p = 0.07). Treatment with rosuvastatin alone or combined with soluble fiber was associated with decreased levels of desmosterol (p = 0.003 vs. other groups). Compared to non-fiber supplemented individuals, those treated with fibers had weight loss (p = 0.04), reduced body mass index (p = 0.002) and blood glucose (p = 0.047).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Among subjects treated with highly effective lipid-lowering therapy, the intake of 25 g of fibers added favorable effects, mainly by reducing phytosterolemia. Additional benefits include improvement in blood glucose and anthropometric parameters.</p

Activation of Human T-Helper/Inducer Cell, T-Cytotoxic Cell, B-Cell, and Natural Killer (NK)-Cells and induction of Natural Killer Cell Activity against K562 Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Cells with Modified Citrus Pectin

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Modified citrus pectin (MCP) is known for its anti-cancer effects and its ability to be absorbed and circulated in the human body. In this report we tested the ability of MCP to induce the activation of human blood lymphocyte subsets like T, B and NK-cells.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>MCP treated human blood samples were incubated with specific antibody combinations and analyzed in a flow cytometer using a 3-color protocol. To test functionality of the activated NK-cells, isolated normal lymphocytes were treated with increasing concentrations of MCP. Log-phase PKH26-labeled K562 leukemic cells were added to the lymphocytes and incubated for 4 h. The mixture was stained with FITC-labeled active form of caspase 3 antibody and analyzed by a 2-color flow cytometry protocol. The percentage of K562 cells positive for PKH26 and FITC were calculated as the dead cells induced by NK-cells. Monosaccharide analysis of the MCP was performed by high-performance anion-exchange chromatography with pulse amperometric detection (HPAEC-PAD).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MCP activated T-cytotoxic cells and B-cell in a dose-dependent manner, and induced significant dose-dependent activation of NK-cells. MCP-activated NK-cells demonstrated functionality in inducing cancer cell death. MCP consisted of oligogalacturonic acids with some containing 4,5-unsaturated non-reducing ends.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>MCP has immunostimulatory properties in human blood samples, including the activation of functional NK cells against K562 leukemic cells in culture. Unsaturated oligogalacturonic acids appear to be the immunostimulatory carbohydrates in MCP.</p