The changing nature of risk and risk management: the challenge of borders, uncertainty and resilience

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The ethnoecology of Caiçara metapopulations (Atlantic Forest, Brazil): ecological concepts and questions

The Atlantic Forest is represented on the coast of Brazil by approximately 7,5% of remnants, much of these concentrated on the country's SE coast. Within these southeastern remnants, we still find the coastal Caiçaras who descend from Native Indians and Portuguese Colonizers. The maintenance of such populations, and their existence in spite of the deforestation that occurred on the Atlantic Forest coast, deserves especial attention and analysis. In this study, I address, in particular, the Caiçaras who live on the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro States, illustrating with examples of coastal inhabitants from other areas, such as Bahia State (NE coast) and of other forested areas (riverine caboclos of the Amazon). The major focus of this study, based on previous research, performed since 1986 in several populations or villages of the Atlantic Forest coast, is to understand the resilience of the Caiçaras, which is analyzed using ecological concepts, such as metapopulation, resilience and adaptive cycles. The Caiçara populations are located on islands (Búzios, Comprida, Grande, Ilhabela, Jaguanum, Gipóia) and on the coast (Bertioga, Puruba, Picinguaba, among others). Information gathered about the Caiçaras regarding the economic cycles of the local regions, along with ecological, historical and economic data available, are used to understand such resilience, and are complemented with comparative examples from the Brazilian Amazon and with variables such as the local restrictions imposed by environmental governmental agencies

Assessing the ecological impacts of invasive species based on their functional responses and abundances

Invasive species management requires allocation of limited resources towards the proactive mitigation of those species that could elicit the highest ecological impacts. However, we lack predictive capacity with respect to the identities and degree of ecological impacts of invasive species. Here, we combine the relative per capita effects and relative field abundances of invader as compared to native species into a new metric, “Relative Impact Potential” (RIP), and test whether this metric can reliably predict high impact invaders. This metric tests the impact of invaders relative to the baseline impacts of natives on the broader ecological community. We first derived the functional responses (i.e. per capita effects) of two ecologically damaging invasive fish species in Europe, the Ponto-Caspian round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) and Asian topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva), and their native trophic analogues, the bullhead (Cottus gobio; also C. bairdi) and bitterling (Rhodeus amarus), towards several prey species. This establishes the existence and relative strengths of the predator-prey relationships. Then, we derived ecologically comparable field abundance estimates of the invader and native fish from surveys and literature. This establishes the multipliers for the above per capita effects. Despite both predators having known severe detrimental field impacts, their functional responses alone were of modest predictive power in this regard; however, incorporation of their abundances relative to natives into the RIP metric gave high predictive power. We present invader/native RIP biplots that provide an intuitive visualisation of comparisons among the invasive and native species, reflecting the known broad ecological impacts of the invaders. Thus, we provide a mechanistic understanding of invasive species impacts and a predictive tool for use by practitioners, for example, in risk assessments

Ecosystem Resilience and Threshold Response in the Galápagos Coastal Zone

Background: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a conservative estimate on rates of sea-level rise of 3.8 mm yr⁻¹ at the end of the 21st century, which may have a detrimental effect on ecologically important mangrove ecosystems. Understanding factors influencing the long-term resilience of these communities is critical but poorly understood. We investigate ecological resilience in a coastal mangrove community from the Galápagos Islands over the last 2700 years using three research questions: What are the 'fast and slow' processes operating in the coastal zone? Is there evidence for a threshold response? How can the past inform us about the resilience of the modern system?Methodology/Principal Findings: Palaeoecological methods (AMS radiocarbon dating, stable carbon isotopes (δ13C)) were used to reconstruct sedimentation rates and ecological change over the past 2,700 years at Diablas lagoon, Isabela, Galápagos. Bulk geochemical analysis was also used to determine local environmental changes, and salinity was reconstructed using a diatom transfer function. Changes in relative sea level (RSL) were estimated using a glacio-isostatic adjustment model. Non-linear behaviour was observed in the Diablas mangrove ecosystem as it responded to increased salinities following exposure to tidal inundations. A negative feedback was observed which enabled the mangrove canopy to accrete vertically, but disturbances may have opened up the canopy and contributed to an erosion of resilience over time. A combination of drier climatic conditions and a slight fall in RSL then resulted in a threshold response, from a mangrove community to a microbial mat.Conclusions/Significance: Palaeoecological records can provide important information on the nature of non-linear behaviour by identifying thresholds within ecological systems, and in outlining responses to 'fast and slow' environmental change between alternative stable states. This study highlights the need to incorporate a long-term ecological perspective when designing strategies for maximizing coastal resilience.</p

Food web persistence is enhanced by non-trophic interactions.

The strength of interspecific interactions is often proposed to affect food web stability, with weaker interactions increasing the persistence of species, and food webs as a whole. However, the mechanisms that modify interaction strengths, and their effects on food web persistence are not fully understood. Using food webs containing different combinations of predator, prey, and nonprey species, we investigated how predation risk of susceptible prey is affected by the presence of species not directly trophically linked to either predators or prey. We predicted that indirect alterations to the strength of trophic interactions translate to changes in persistence time of extinction-prone species. We assembled interaction webs of protist consumers and turbellarian predators with eight different combinations of prey, predators and nonprey species, and recorded abundances for over 130 prey generations. Persistence of predation-susceptible species was increased by the presence of nonprey. Furthermore, multiple nonprey species acted synergistically to increase prey persistence, such that persistence was greater than would be predicted from the dynamics of simpler food webs. We also found evidence suggesting increased food web complexity may weaken interspecific competition, increasing persistence of poorer competitors. Our results demonstrate that persistence times in complex food webs cannot be predicted from the dynamics of simplified systems, and that species not directly involved in consumptive interactions likely play key roles in maintaining persistence. Global species diversity is currently declining at an unprecedented rate and our findings reveal that concurrent loss of species that modify trophic interactions may have unpredictable consequences for food web stability

Response and resilience of Spartina alterniflora to sudden dieback

We measured an array of biophysical and spectral variables to evaluate the response and recovery of Spartina alterniflora to a sudden dieback event in spring and summer 2004 within a low marsh in coastal Virginia, USA. S. alterniflora is a foundation species, whose loss decreases ecosystem services and potentiates ecosystem state change. Long-term records of the potential environmental drivers of dieback such as precipitation and tidal inundation did not evidence any particular anomalies, although Hurricane Isabel in fall 2003 may have been related to dieback. Transects were established across the interface between the dieback area and apparently healthy areas of marsh. Plant condition was classified based on ground cover within transects as dieback, intermediate and healthy. Numerous characteristics of S. alterniflora culms within each condition class were assessed including biomass, morphology and spectral attributes associated with photosynthetic pigments. Plants demonstrated evidence of stress in 2004 and 2005 beyond areas of obvious dieback and resilience at a multi-year scale. Resilience of the plants was evident in recovery of ground cover and biomass largely within 3 y, although a small remnant of dieback persisted for 8 y. Culms surviving within the dieback and areas of intermediate impact had modified morphological traits and spectral response that reflected stress. These morphometric and spectral differences among plant cover condition classes serve as guidelines for monitoring of dieback initiation, effects and subsequent recovery. Although a number of environmental and biotic parameters were assessed relative to causation, the reason for this particular dieback remains largely unknown, however

Dynamic Phenotypic Clustering in Noisy Ecosystems

In natural ecosystems, hundreds of species typically share the same environment and are connected by a dense network of interactions such as predation or competition for resources. Much is known about how fixed ecological niches can determine species abundances in such systems, but far less attention has been paid to patterns of abundances in randomly varying environments. Here, we study this question in a simple model of competition between many species in a patchy ecosystem with randomly fluctuating environmental conditions. Paradoxically, we find that introducing noise can actually induce ordered patterns of abundance-fluctuations, leading to a distinct periodic variation in the correlations between species as a function of the phenotypic distance between them; here, difference in growth rate. This is further accompanied by the formation of discrete, dynamic clusters of abundant species along this otherwise continuous phenotypic axis. These ordered patterns depend on the collective behavior of many species; they disappear when only individual or pairs of species are considered in isolation. We show that they arise from a balance between the tendency of shared environmental noise to synchronize species abundances and the tendency for competition among species to make them fluctuate out of step. Our results demonstrate that in highly interconnected ecosystems, noise can act as an ordering force, dynamically generating ecological patterns even in environments lacking explicit niches

A Battle Lost? Report on Two Centuries of Invasion and Management of Lantana camara L. in Australia, India and South Africa

Recent discussion on invasive species has invigorated the debate on strategies to manage these species. Lantana camara L., a shrub native to the American tropics, has become one of the worst weeds in recorded history. In Australia, India and South Africa, Lantana has become very widespread occupying millions of hectares of land. Here, we examine historical records to reconstruct invasion and management of Lantana over two centuries and ask: Can we fight the spread of invasive species or do we need to develop strategies for their adaptive management? We carried out extensive research of historical records constituting over 75% of records on invasion and management of this species in the three countries. The records indicate that governments in Australia, India and South Africa have taken aggressive measures to eradicate Lantana over the last two centuries, but these efforts have been largely unsuccessful. We found that despite control measures, the invasion trajectory of Lantana has continued upwards and that post-war land-use change might have been a possible trigger for this spread. A large majority of studies on invasive species address timescales of less than one year; and even fewer address timescales of >10 years. An understanding of species invasions over long time-scales is of paramount importance. While archival records may give only a partial picture of the spread and management of invasive species, in the absence of any other long-term dataset on the ecology of Lantana, our study provides an important insight into its invasion, spread and management over two centuries and across three continents. While the established paradigm is to expend available resources on attempting to eradicate invasive species, our findings suggest that in the future, conservationists will need to develop strategies for their adaptive management rather than fighting a losing battle

Zooplankton spine induces aversion in small fish predators

The spined cladoceran Bythotrephes cederstroemi is protected from small fish predators due to the difficulty small fish have in ingesting the spine. Juvenile yellow perch (Perca flavescens) 50–60 mm in length were offered Bythotrephes with alternative prey available in two experiments. First, perch were observed as they gained experience with Bythotrephes and developed aversion to the zooplankter. Perch initially attacked and captured Bythotrephes . However, they struggled to ingest the spined zooplankter, rejected and recaptured it many times, and finally ceased to attack it. Second, perch were offered Bythotrephes with varying portions of the spine removed to clarify the spine's role in inducing such behaviors. Perch showed greater preference to attack nospine and half-spine Bythotrephes , and were less likely to reject and more likely to ingest Bythotrephes with the spine removed. For small or young fish that forage on zooplankton in lakes where Bythotrephes is present, aversion is an efficient response to the conspicuous but unpalatable spined cladoceran. However, aversion allows Bythotrephes , also a predator on zooplankton, to more effectively compete with young fish without an increase in predation risk.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47794/1/442_2004_Article_BF00317591.pd