Ambiguity Aversion, the Equity Premium and the Welfare Costs of Business Cycles

We examine the potential importance of consumer ambiguity aversion for asset prices and how consumption ‡fluctuations influence consumer welfare. First, considering a simple Mehra-Prescott-style endowment economy with a representative agent facing consumption fluctuations calibrated to match U.S. data, we study to what extent ambiguity aversion can deliver asset prices that are consistent with data: a high return on equity and a low return on riskfree bonds. For some configurations of preference parameters— a discount factor, a degree of relative risk aversion, and a measure of ambiguity aversion— we find that it can. Then, we use these parameter configurations to investigate how much consumers would be willing to pay to reduce endowment fluctuations to zero, thus delivering a Lucas-style welfare cost of fluctuations. These costs turn out to be very large: consumers are willing to pay over 10% of consumption in permanent terms.Ambiguity aversion; asset prices; business cycle

The interplay between double exchange, super-exchange, and Lifshitz localization in doped manganites

Considering the disorder caused in manganites by the substitution of Mn by Fe or Ga, we accomplish a systematic study of doped manganites begun in previous papers. To this end, a disordered model is formulated and solved using the Variational Mean Field technique. The subtle interplay between double exchange, super-exchange, and disorder causes similar effects on the dependence of T_C on the percentage of Mn substitution in the cases considered. Yet, in La$_{2/3}$Ca$_{1/3}$Mn$_{1-y}$Ga$_y$O$_3$ our results suggest a quantum critical point (QCP) for $y\approx 0.1-0.2$, associated to the localization of the electronic states of the conduction band. In the case of La$_x$Ca$_x$Mn$_{1-y}$Fe$_y$O$_3$ (with $x=1/3,3/8$) no such QCP is expected.Comment: 6 pages + 3 postscript figures. Largely extended discussio

Preliminary results using a P300 brain-computer interface speller: a possible interaction effect between presentation paradigm and set of stimuli

Fernández-Rodríguez Á., Medina-Juliá M.T., Velasco-Álvarez F., Ron-Angevin R. (2019) Preliminary Results Using a P300 Brain-Computer Interface Speller: A Possible Interaction Effect Between Presentation Paradigm and Set of Stimuli. In: Rojas I., Joya G., Catala A. (eds) Advances in Computational Intelligence. IWANN 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 11506. Springer, ChamSeveral proposals to improve the performance controlling a P300-based BCI speller have been studied using the standard row-column presentation (RCP) par-adigm. However, this paradigm could not be suitable for those patients with lack of gaze control. To solve that, the rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) para-digm, which presents the stimuli located in the same position, has been proposed in previous studies. Thus, the aim of the present work is to assess if a stimuli set of pictures that improves the performance in RCP, could also improve the per-formance in a RSVP paradigm. Six participants have controlled four conditions in a calibration task: letters in RCP, pictures in RCP, letters in RSVP and pictures in RSVP. The results showed that pictures in RCP obtained the best accuracy and information transfer rate. The improvement effect given by pictures was greater in the RCP paradigm than in RSVP. Therefore, the improvements reached under RCP may not be directly transferred to the RSVP.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Galaxy triplets in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7: II. A connection with compact groups?

We analyse a sample of 71 triplets of luminous galaxies derived from the work of O´Mill et al. We compare the properties of triplets and their  members with those of control samples of compact groups, the 10 brightest members of rich clusters and galaxies in pairs. The triplets are restricted to have members with spectroscopic redshifts in the range 0.01<=z<=0.14 and absolute r-band luminosities brighter than Mr=-20.5. For these member galaxies, we analyse the stellar mass content, the star formation rates, the Dn(4000) parameter and (Mg-Mr) colour index. Since galaxies in triplets may finally merge in a single system, we analyse different global properties of these systems. We calculate the probability that the properties of galaxies in triplets are strongly correlated. We also study total star formation activity and global colours, and define the triplet compactness as a measure of the percentage of the system total area that is filled by the light of member galaxies. We concentrate in the comparison of our results with those of compact groups to assess how the triplets are a natural extension of these compact systems. Our analysis suggests that triplet galaxy members behave similarly to  compact group members and galaxies in rich clusters.We also find that systems comprising three blue, star-forming, young stellar population galaxies (blue triplets) are most probably real systems and not a chance configuration of interloping galaxies. The same holds for triplets  composed of three red, non-star-forming galaxies, showing the correlation of galaxy properties in these systems. From the analysis of the triplet as a whole, we conclude that, at a given total stellar mass content, triplets show a total star formation activity and global colours similar to compact groups. However, blue triplets show a high total star formation activity with a lower stellar mass content. From an analysis of the compactness parameter of the systems we find that light is even more concentrated in triplets than in compact groups. We propose that triplets composed of three luminous galaxies, should not be considered as an analogous of galaxy pairs with a third extra member, but rather they are a natural extension of compact groups.Fil: Duplancic Videla, Maria Fernanda. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientiâ­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico San Juan. Instituto de Ciencias Astronomicas de la Tierra y del Espacio; ArgentinaFil: O'mill, Ana Laura. Universidade Do Sao Paulo. Instituto Astronomia, Geofisica E Ciencias Atmosfericas. Departamento de Astronomia; BrasilFil: Garcia Lambas, Diego Rodolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Astronomía Teórica y Experimental; ArgentinaFil: Sodré Jr., Laerte. Universidade Do Sao Paulo. Instituto Astronomia, Geofisica E Ciencias Atmosfericas. Departamento de Astronomia; BrasilFil: Alonso Giraldes, Maria Sol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientiâ­ficas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico San Juan. Instituto de Ciencias Astronomicas de la Tierra y del Espacio; Argentin

Human Cytomegalovirus: detection of congenital and perinatal infection in Argentina

BACKGROUND: Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is one of the most commonly found agents of congenital infections. Primary maternal infection is associated with risk of symptomatic congenital diseases, and high morbidity is frequently associated with very low birth weight. Neonates with asymptomatic infection develop various sequelae during infancy. This is the first Argentine study performed in neonates with congenital and postnatal HCMV infection. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique with different pairs of primers, to detect cytomegalovirus isolated in tissue cultures and directly in urine and dried blood spot (DBS) specimens. Results were compared with IgM detection. METHODS: The study was performed between 1999 and 2001 on routine samples in the Laboratory. A total of 61 urine and 56 serum samples were selected from 61 newborns/infants, 33 patients whose samples were analyzed during the first two to three weeks of life were considered congenital infections; the remaining 28 patients whose samples were taken later than the third week were grouped as perinatal infections, although only in 4 the perinatal transmission of infection was determined unequivocally Cytomegalovirus diagnosis was made by isolating the virus from urine samples in human foreskin fibroblast cells. Three different primer pairs directed to IE, LA and gB genes were used for the HCMV PCR assay in viral isolates. Subsequently, PCR and nested PCR (nPCR) assays with gB primers were performed directly in urine and in 11 samples of dried blood spot (DBS) on Guthrie Card, these results were then compared with serology. RESULTS: The main clinical manifestations of the 33 patients with congenital infection were purpura, jaundice, hepatomegaly and anaemia. Three patients presented low birth weight as single symptom, 10, intracranial calcifications, and 2, kidney failure. In the 28 patients grouped as with perinatal infection, anaemia, hepatosplenomegaly and enzymatic alteration were predominant, and 4 patients were HIV positive. The primers used to amplify the gB region had a PCR positivity rate of 100%, whereas those that amplified IE and LA regions had a PCR positivity rate of 54% and 61% respectively, in CMV isolates. Amplification by PCR of urine samples (with no previous DNA extraction), using primers for the gB region, detected 34/61 positive samples. Out of the 33 samples from patients with congenital infection, 24 (73%) were positive. When nPCR was used in these samples, all were positive, whereas in the remaining 28 patients, two negative cases were found. Cytomegalovirus DNA detection in 11 samples was also carried out in DBS: 7 DBS samples were positive and 4 were negative. CONCLUSIONS: Primers directed to the gB fragment region were the best choice for the detection of CMV DNA in positive isolates. In congenital infections, direct PCR in urine was positive in a high percentage (73%) of samples; however, in patients grouped as with perinatal infection only 36% of the cases were positive. With n-PCR, total sample positivity reached 97%. PCR technique performed in DBS allowed identifying congenital infection in four patients and to be confirmed in 3. These results show the value of nPCR for the detection of all cases of CMV infection. The assay offers the advantage that it may be performed within the normal working day and provides reliable results in a much shorter time frame than that required for either traditional tissue culture or the shell-viral assay

Redshift-distance Survey of Early-type Galaxies: The D_n-sigma Relation

In this paper R-band photometric and velocity dispersion measurements for a sample of 452 elliptical and S0 galaxies in 28 clusters are used to construct a template D_n-sigma relation. This template relation is constructed by combining the data from the 28 clusters, under the assumption that galaxies in different clusters have similar properties. The photometric and spectroscopic data used consist of new as well as published measurements, converted to a common system, as presented in a accompanying paper. The resulting direct relation, corrected for incompleteness bias, is log{D_n} =1.203 log{sigma} + 1.406; the zero-point has been defined by requiring distant clusters to be at rest relative to the CMB. This zero-point is consistent with the value obtained by using the distance to Virgo as determined by the Cepheid period-luminosity relation. This new D_n-sigma relation leads to a peculiar velocity of -72 (\pm 189) km/s for the Coma cluster. The scatter in the distance relation corresponds to a distance error of about 20%, comparable to the values obtained for the Fundamental Plane relation. Correlations between the scatter and residuals of the D_n-sigma relation with other parameters that characterize the cluster and/or the galaxy stellar population are also analyzed. The direct and inverse relations presented here have been used in recent studies of the peculiar velocity field mapped by the ENEAR all-sky sample.Comment: 46 pages, 20 figures, and 7 tables. To appear in AJ, vol. 123, no. 5, May 200

Access to Artemisinin-Based Anti-Malarial Treatment and its Related Factors in Rural Tanzania.

Artemisinin-based combination treatment (ACT) has been widely adopted as one of the main malaria control strategies. However, its promise to save thousands of lives in sub-Saharan Africa depends on how effective the use of ACT is within the routine health system. The INESS platform evaluated effective coverage of ACT in several African countries. Timely access within 24 hours to an authorized ACT outlet is one of the determinants of effective coverage and was assessed for artemether-lumefantrine (Alu), in two district health systems in rural Tanzania. From October 2009 to June 2011we conducted continuous rolling household surveys in the Kilombero-Ulanga and the Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites (HDSS). Surveys were linked to the routine HDSS update rounds. Members of randomly pre-selected households that had experienced a fever episode in the previous two weeks were eligible for a structured interview. Data on individual treatment seeking, access to treatment, timing, source of treatment and household costs per episode were collected. Data are presented on timely access from a total of 2,112 interviews in relation to demographics, seasonality, and socio economic status. In Kilombero-Ulanga, 41.8% (CI: 36.6-45.1) and in Rufiji 36.8% (33.7-40.1) of fever cases had access to an authorized ACT provider within 24 hours of fever onset. In neither of the HDSS site was age, sex, socio-economic status or seasonality of malaria found to be significantly correlated with timely access. Timely access to authorized ACT providers is below 50% despite interventions intended to improve access such as social marketing and accreditation of private dispensing outlets. To improve prompt diagnosis and treatment, access remains a major bottle neck and new more innovative interventions are needed to raise effective coverage of malaria treatment in Tanzania

Combination fluticasone and salmeterol versus fixed dose combination budesonide and formoterol for chronic asthma in adults and children

BackgroundCombination therapies are frequently recommended as maintenance therapy for people with asthma, whose disease is not adequately controlled with inhaled steroids. Fluticasone/salmeterol (FP/SAL) and budesonide/formoterol (BUD/F) have been assessed against their respective monocomponents, but there is a need to compare these two therapies on a head-to-head basis.ObjectivesTo estimate the relative effects of fluticasone/salmeterol and budesonide/formoterol in terms of asthma control, safety and lung function.Search strategyWe searched the Cochrane Airways Group register of trials with prespecified terms. We performed additional hand searching of manufacturers' web sites and online trial registries. Searches are current to May 2008.Selection criteriaRandomised studies comparing fixed dose FP/SAL and BUD/ F were eligible, for a minimum of 12 weeks. Crossover studies were excluded. Our primary outcomes were: i) exacerbations requiring oral steroid bursts, ii) hospital admission and iii) serious adverse events.Data collection and analysisTwo authors independently assessed studies for inclusion in the review. We combined continuous data outcomes with a mean difference (MD), and dichotomous data outcomes with an odds ratio (OR).Main resultsFive studies met the review entry criteria (5537 participants). Primary outcomes: The odds of an exacerbation requiring oral steroids did not differ significantly between treatments (OR 0.89; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.09, three studies, 4515 participants). The odds of an exacerbation leading hospital admission were also not significantly different (OR 1.29; 95% CI 0.68 to 2.47, four studies, 4879 participants). The odds of serious adverse events did not differ significantly between treatments (OR 1.47; 95% CI 0.75, 2.86, three studies, 4054 participants). Secondary outcomes: Lung function outcomes, symptoms, rescue medication, exacerbations leading ED visit/hospital admission and adverse events were not significantly different between treatments.Authors' conclusionsThe evidence in this review indicates that differences in the requirement for oral steroids and hospital admission between BUD/F and FP/SAL do not reach statistical significance. However, the confidence intervals do not exclude clinically important differences between treatments in reducing exacerbations or causing adverse events. The width of the confidence intervals for the primary outcomes justify further trials in order to better determine the relative effects of these drug combinations. Although this review sought to assess the effects of these drugs in both adults and children, no trials were identified in the under-12s and research in this area is of a high priority