Mixture models for distance sampling detection functions

Funding: EPSRC DTGWe present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Family members’ experiences of “wait and see” as a communication strategy in end-of-life decisions

The aim of this study is to examine family members’ experiences of end-of-life decision-making processes in Norwegian intensive care units (ICUs) to ascertain the degree to which they felt included in the decision-making process and whether they received necessary information. Were they asked about the patient’s preferences, and how did they view their role as family members in the decision-making process? A constructivist interpretive approach to the grounded theory method of qualitative research was employed with interviews of 27 bereaved family members of former ICU patients 3–12 months after the patient’s death. The core finding is that relatives want a more active role in end-of-life decision-making in order to communicate the patient’s wishes. However, many consider their role to be unclear, and few study participants experienced shared decision-making. The clinician’s expression “wait and see” hides and delays the communication of honest and clear information. When physicians finally address their decision, there is no time for family participation. Our results also indicate that nurses should be more involved in family–physician communication. Families are uncertain whether or how they can participate in the decision-making process. They need unambiguous communication and honest information to be able to take part in the decision-making process. We suggest that clinicians in Norwegian ICUs need more training in the knowledge and skills of effective communication with families of dying patients

Breast and other cancers in 1445 blood relatives of 75 Nordic patients with ataxia telangiectasia

Epidemiological studies have consistently shown elevated rates of breast cancer among female blood relatives of patients with ataxia telangiectasia (AT), a rare autosomal recessive disease. A large proportion of the members of AT families are carriers of AT-causing gene mutations in ATM (Ataxia Telangiectasia Mutated), and it has been hypothesised that these otherwise healthy carriers are predisposed to breast cancer. This is an extended and enlarged follow-up study of cancer incidence in blood relatives of 75 patients with verified AT in 66 Nordic families. Blood relatives were identified through population registry linkages, and the occurrence of cancer was determined from cancer registry files in each country and compared with national incidence rates. The ATM mutation carrier probabilities of relatives were assigned from the combined information on location in family, consanguinity, if any, and supplementary carrier screening in some families. Among the 1445 blood relatives of AT patients, 225 cancers were observed, with 170.4 expected, yielding a standardised incidence ratio (SIR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1–1.4). Invasive breast cancer occurred in 34 female relatives (SIR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2–2.4) and was diagnosed in 21 women before the age of 55 years (SIR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.8–4.5), including seven mothers of probands (SIR, 8.1; 95% CI, 3.3–17). When the group of mothers was excluded, no clear relationship was observed between the allocated mutation carrier probability of each family member and the extent of breast cancer risk. We concluded that the increased risk for female breast cancer seen in 66 Nordic AT families appeared to be restricted to women under the age of 55 years and was due mainly to a very high risk in the group of mothers. The findings of breast cancer risk in mothers, but not other likely mutation carriers, in this and other studies raises questions about the hypothesis of a simple causal relationship with ATM heterozygosity

Backpack-mounted satellite transmitters do not affect reproductive performance in a migratory bustard

Backpack-mounted satellite transmitters (PTTs) are used extensively in the study of avian habitat use and of the movements and demography of medium- to large-bodied species, but can affect individuals’ performance and fitness. Transparent assessment of potential transmitter effects is important for both ethical accountability and confidence in, or adjustment to, life history parameter estimates. We assessed the influence of transmitters on seven reproductive parameters in Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii, comparing 114 nests of 38 females carrying PTTs to 184 nests of untagged birds (non-PTT) over seven breeding seasons (2012‒2018) in Uzbekistan. There was no evidence of any influence of PTTs on: lay date (non-PTT x̅ = 91.7 Julian day ± 12.3 SD; PTT x̅ = 95.1 Julian day ± 15.7 SD); clutch size (non-PTT x̅ = 3.30 ± 0.68 SD; PTT x̅ = 3.25 ± 0.65 SD); mean egg weight at laying (non-PTT x̅ = 66.1g ± 5.4 SD; PTT x̅ = 66.4g ± 5.4 SD); nest success (non-PTT x̅ = 57.08% ± 4.3 SE; PTT x̅ = 58.24% ± 4.5 SE for nests started 2 April); egg hatchability (non-PTT x̅ = 88.3% ± 2.2 SE; PTT x̅ = 88.3% ± 2.6 SE); or chick survival to fledging from broods that had at least one surviving chick (non-PTT x̅ = 63.4% ± 4.2 SE; PTT x̅= 64.4% ± 4.7 SE). High nesting propensity (97.3% year-1 ± 1.9% SE) of tagged birds indicated minimal PTT effect on breeding probability. These findings show harness-mounted transmitters can give unbiased measures of demographic parameters of this species, and are relevant to other large-bodied, cursorial, ground-nesting birds of open habitats, particularly other bustards

Detection of epithelial apoptosis in pelvic ileal pouches for ulcerative colitis and familial adenomatous polyposis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) is the surgical procedure of choice for patients with refractory ulcerative colitis (UC) and for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) with many rectal polyps. Pouchitis is one of the more frequent complications after IPAA in UC patients; however, it is rare in FAP.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>Evaluate pro-apoptotic activity in endoscopically and histological normal mucosa of the ileal pouch in patients with UC and FAP.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Eighteen patients (nine with UC and nine with FAP) with J pouch after total rectocolectomy were studied. Biopsies were obtained from the mucosa of the pouch and from normal ileum. The specimens were snap-frozen and the expressions of Bax and Bcl-2 were determined by immunoblot of protein extracts and by immunohistochemistry analysis. FADD, Caspase-8, APAF-1 and Caspase-9 were evaluated by immunoprecipitation and immunoblot.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patients with UC had significantly higher protein levels of Bax and APAF-1, Caspase-9 than patients with FAP, but were similar to controls. The expressions of Bcl-2 and FADD, Caspase-8 were similar in the groups. Immunohistochemistry for Bax showed less intensity of immunoreactions in FAP than in UC and Controls. Bcl-2 immunostaining was similar among the groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patients with FAP present lower levels of pro-apoptotic proteins in all methods applied, even in the absence of clinical and endoscopic pouchitis and dysplasia in the histological analysis. These findings may explain a tendency of up-regulation of apoptosis in UC patients, resulting in higher rates of progression to pouchitis in these patients, which could correlate with mucosal atrophy that occurs in inflamed tissue. However, FAP patients had low pro-apoptotic activity in the mucosa, and it could explain the tendency to low cell turn over and presence of adenomas in this syndrome.</p

Whale, whale, everywhere: increasing abundance of western South Atlantic humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in their wintering grounds

The western South Atlantic (WSA) humpback whale population inhabits the coast of Brazil during the breeding and calving season in winter and spring. This population was depleted to near extinction by whaling in the mid-twentieth century. Despite recent signs of recovery, increasing coastal and offshore development pose potential threats to these animals. Therefore, continuous monitoring is needed to assess population status and support conservation strategies. The aim of this work was to present ship-based line-transect estimates of abundance for humpback whales in their WSA breeding ground and to investigate potential changes in population size. Two cruises surveyed the coast of Brazil during August-September in 2008 and 2012. The area surveyed in 2008 corresponded to the currently recognized population breeding area; effort in 2012 was limited due to unfavorable weather conditions. WSA humpback whale population size in 2008 was estimated at 16,410 (CV = 0.228, 95% CI = 10,563–25,495) animals. In order to compare abundance between 2008 and 2012, estimates for the area between Salvador and Cabo Frio, which were consistently covered in the two years, were computed at 15,332 (CV = 0.243, 95% CI = 9,595–24,500) and 19,429 (CV = 0.101, 95% CI = 15,958–23,654) whales, respectively. The difference in the two estimates represents an increase of 26.7% in whale numbers in a 4-year period. The estimated abundance for 2008 is considered the most robust for the WSA humpback whale population because the ship survey conducted in that year minimized bias from various sources. Results presented here indicate that in 2008, the WSA humpback whale population was at least around 60% of its estimated pre-modern whaling abundance and that it may recover to its pre-exploitation size sooner than previously estimated.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

ATM variants and cancer risk in breast cancer patients from Southern Finland

BACKGROUND: Individuals heterozygous for germline ATM mutations have been reported to have an increased risk for breast cancer but the role for ATM genetic variants for breast cancer risk has remained unclear. Recently, a common ATM variant, ATMivs38 -8T>C in cis with the ATMex39 5557G>A (D1853N) variant, was suggested to associate with bilateral breast cancer among familial breast cancer patients from Northern Finland. We have here evaluated the 5557G>A and ivs38-8T>C variants in an extensive case-control association analysis. We also aimed to investigate whether there are other ATM mutations or variants contributing to breast cancer risk in our population. METHODS: Two common ATM variants, 5557G>A and ivs38-8T>C, previously suggested to associate with bilateral breast cancer, were genotyped in an extensive set of 786 familial and 884 unselected breast cancer cases as well as 708 healthy controls. We also screened the entire coding region and exon-intron boundaries of the ATM gene in 47 familial breast cancer patients and constructed haplotypes of the patients. The identified variants were also evaluated for increased breast cancer risk among additional breast cancer cases and controls. RESULTS: Neither of the two common variants, 5557G>A and ivs38-8T>C, nor any haplotype containing them, was significantly associated with breast cancer risk, bilateral breast cancer or multiple primary cancers in any of the patient groups or subgoups. Three rare missense alterations and one intronic change were each found in only one patient of over 250 familial patients studied and not among controls. The fourth missense alteration studied further was found with closely similar frequencies in over 600 familial cases and controls. CONCLUSION: Altogether, our results suggest very minor effect, if any, of ATM genetic variants on familial breast cancer in Southern Finland. Our results do not support association of the 5557G>A or ivs38-8T>C variant with increased breast cancer risk or with bilateral breast cancer

An Investigation into the Poor Survival of an Endangered Coho Salmon Population

To investigate reasons for the decline of an endangered population of coho salmon (O. kisutch), 190 smolts were acoustically tagged during three consecutive years and their movements and survival were estimated using the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking project (POST) array. Median travel times of the Thompson River coho salmon smolts to the lower Fraser River sub-array were 16, 12 and 10 days during 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. Few smolts were recorded on marine arrays. Freshwater survival rates of the tagged smolts during their downstream migration were 0.0–5.6% (0.0–9.0% s.e.) in 2004, 7.0% (6.2% s.e.) in 2005, and 50.9% (18.6% s.e.) in 2006. Overall smolt-to-adult return rates exhibited a similar pattern, which suggests that low freshwater survival rates of out-migrating smolts may be a primary reason for the poor conservation status of this endangered coho salmon population