Approximate probabilistic verification of hybrid systems

Hybrid systems whose mode dynamics are governed by non-linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are often a natural model for biological processes. However such models are difficult to analyze. To address this, we develop a probabilistic analysis method by approximating the mode transitions as stochastic events. We assume that the probability of making a mode transition is proportional to the measure of the set of pairs of time points and value states at which the mode transition is enabled. To ensure a sound mathematical basis, we impose a natural continuity property on the non-linear ODEs. We also assume that the states of the system are observed at discrete time points but that the mode transitions may take place at any time between two successive discrete time points. This leads to a discrete time Markov chain as a probabilistic approximation of the hybrid system. We then show that for BLTL (bounded linear time temporal logic) specifications the hybrid system meets a specification iff its Markov chain approximation meets the same specification with probability $1$. Based on this, we formulate a sequential hypothesis testing procedure for verifying -approximately- that the Markov chain meets a BLTL specification with high probability. Our case studies on cardiac cell dynamics and the circadian rhythm indicate that our scheme can be applied in a number of realistic settings

Eye tracking as an MT evaluation technique

Eye tracking has been used successfully as a technique for measuring cognitive load in reading, psycholinguistics, writing, language acquisition etc. for some time now. Its application as a technique for measuring the reading ease of MT output has not yet, to our knowledge, been tested. We report here on a preliminary study testing the use and validity of an eye tracking methodology as a means of semi-automatically evaluating machine translation output. 50 French machine translated sentences, 25 rated as excellent and 25 rated as poor in an earlier human evaluation, were selected. Ten native speakers of French were instructed to read the MT sentences for comprehensibility. Their eye gaze data were recorded non-invasively using a Tobii 1750 eye tracker. The average gaze time and fixation count were found to be higher for the “bad” sentences, while average fixation duration and pupil dilations were not found to be substantially different for output rated as good and output rated as bad. Comparisons between HTER scores and eye gaze data were also found to correlate well with gaze time and fixation count, but not with pupil dilation and fixation duration. We conclude that the eye tracking data, in particular gaze time and fixation count, correlate reasonably well with human evaluation of MT output but fixation duration and pupil dilation may be less reliable indicators of reading difficulty for MT output. We also conclude that eye tracking has promise as a semi-automatic MT evaluation technique, which does not require bi-lingual knowledge, and which can potentially tap into the end users’ experience of machine translation output

Biological, ecological, conservation and legal information for all species and subspecies of Australian bird

We introduce a dataset of biological, ecological, conservation and legal information for every species and subspecies of Australian bird, 2056 taxa or populations in total. Version 1 contains 230 fields grouped under the following headings: Taxonomy & nomenclature, Phylogeny, Australian population status, Conservation status, Legal status, Distribution, Morphology, Habitat, Food, Behaviour, Breeding, Mobility and Climate metrics. It is envisaged that the dataset will be updated periodically with new data for existing fields and the addition of new fields. The dataset has already had, and will continue to have applications in Australian and international ornithology, especially those that require standard information for a large number of taxa

Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The isolation of symptomatic cases and tracing of contacts has been used as an early COVID-19 containment measure in many countries, with additional physical distancing measures also introduced as outbreaks have grown. To maintain control of infection while also reducing disruption to populations, there is a need to understand what combination of measures-including novel digital tracing approaches and less intensive physical distancing-might be required to reduce transmission. We aimed to estimate the reduction in transmission under different control measures across settings and how many contacts would be quarantined per day in different strategies for a given level of symptomatic case incidence. METHODS: For this mathematical modelling study, we used a model of individual-level transmission stratified by setting (household, work, school, or other) based on BBC Pandemic data from 40 162 UK participants. We simulated the effect of a range of different testing, isolation, tracing, and physical distancing scenarios. Under optimistic but plausible assumptions, we estimated reduction in the effective reproduction number and the number of contacts that would be newly quarantined each day under different strategies. RESULTS: We estimated that combined isolation and tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone: mean transmission reduction of 2% for mass random testing of 5% of the population each week, 29% for self-isolation alone of symptomatic cases within the household, 35% for self-isolation alone outside the household, 37% for self-isolation plus household quarantine, 64% for self-isolation and household quarantine with the addition of manual contact tracing of all contacts, 57% with the addition of manual tracing of acquaintances only, and 47% with the addition of app-based tracing only. If limits were placed on gatherings outside of home, school, or work, then manual contact tracing of acquaintances alone could have an effect on transmission reduction similar to that of detailed contact tracing. In a scenario where 1000 new symptomatic cases that met the definition to trigger contact tracing occurred per day, we estimated that, in most contact tracing strategies, 15 000-41 000 contacts would be newly quarantined each day. INTERPRETATION: Consistent with previous modelling studies and country-specific COVID-19 responses to date, our analysis estimated that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts to be successfully traced to ensure an effective reproduction number lower than 1 in the absence of other measures. If combined with moderate physical distancing measures, self-isolation and contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, European Commission, Royal Society, Medical Research Council

Honeybee Colony Vibrational Measurements to Highlight the Brood Cycle

Insect pollination is of great importance to crop production worldwide and honey bees are amongst its chief facilitators. Because of the decline of managed colonies, the use of sensor technology is growing in popularity and it is of interest to develop new methods which can more accurately and less invasively assess honey bee colony status. Our approach is to use accelerometers to measure vibrations in order to provide information on colony activity and development. The accelerometers provide amplitude and frequency information which is recorded every three minutes and analysed for night time only. Vibrational data were validated by comparison to visual inspection data, particularly the brood development. We show a strong correlation between vibrational amplitude data and the brood cycle in the vicinity of the sensor. We have further explored the minimum data that is required, when frequency information is also included, to accurately predict the current point in the brood cycle. Such a technique should enable beekeepers to reduce the frequency with which visual inspections are required, reducing the stress this places on the colony and saving the beekeeper time

Rmi1 stimulates decatenation of double Holliday junctions during dissolution by Sgs1-Top3

double Holliday junction (dHJ) is a central intermediate of homologous recombination that can be processed to yield crossover or non-crossover recombination products. To preserve genomic integrity, cells possess mechanisms to avoid crossing over. We show that Saccharomyces cerevisiae Sgs1 and Top3 proteins are sufficient to migrate and disentangle a dHJ to produce exclusively non-crossover recombination products, in a reaction termed "dissolution." We show that Rmi1 stimulates dHJ dissolution at low Sgs1-Top3 protein concentrations, although it has no effect on the initial rate of Holliday junction (HJ) migration. Rmi1 serves to stimulate DNA decatenation, removing the last linkages between the repaired and template DNA molecules. Dissolution of a dHJ is a highly efficient and concerted alternative to nucleolytic resolution that prevents crossing over of chromosomes during recombinational DNA repair in mitotic cells and thereby contributes to genomic integrity

Genomic signatures of population decline in the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae

Population genomic features such as nucleotide diversity and linkage disequilibrium are expected to be strongly shaped by changes in population size, and might therefore be useful for monitoring the success of a control campaign. In the Kilifi district of Kenya, there has been a marked decline in the abundance of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae subsequent to the rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets. To investigate whether this decline left a detectable population genomic signature, simulations were performed to compare the effect of population crashes on nucleotide diversity, Tajima's D, and linkage disequilibrium (as measured by the population recombination parameter ρ). Linkage disequilibrium and ρ were estimated for An. gambiae from Kilifi, and compared them to values for Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles merus at the same location, and for An. gambiae in a location 200 km from Kilifi. In the first simulations ρ changed more rapidly after a population crash than the other statistics, and therefore is a more sensitive indicator of recent population decline. In the empirical data, linkage disequilibrium extends 100-1000 times further, and ρ is 100-1000 times smaller, for the Kilifi population of An. gambiae than for any of the other populations. There were also significant runs of homozygosity in many of the individual An. gambiae mosquitoes from Kilifi. These results support the hypothesis that the recent decline in An. gambiae was driven by the rollout of bed nets. Measuring population genomic parameters in a small sample of individuals before, during and after vector or pest control may be a valuable method of tracking the effectiveness of interventions

A generative inference framework for analysing patterns of cultural change in sparse population data with evidence for fashion trends in LBK culture

Cultural change can be quantified by temporal changes in frequency of different cultural artefacts and it is a central question to identify what underlying cultural transmission processes could have caused the observed frequency changes. Observed changes, however, often describe the dynamics in samples of the population of artefacts, whereas transmission processes act on the whole population. Here we develop a modelling framework aimed at addressing this inference problem. To do so, we firstly generate population structures from which the observed sample could have been drawn randomly and then determine theoretical samples at a later time t2 produced under the assumption that changes in frequencies are caused by a specific transmission process. Thereby we also account for the potential effect of time-averaging processes in the generation of the observed sample. Subsequent statistical comparisons (e.g. using Bayesian inference) of the theoretical and observed samples at t2 can establish which processes could have produced the observed frequency data. In this way, we infer underlying transmission processes directly from available data without any equilibrium assumption. We apply this framework to a dataset describing pottery from settlements of some of the first farmers in Europe (the LBK culture) and conclude that the observed frequency dynamic of different types of decorated pottery is consistent with age-dependent selection, a preference for 'young' pottery types which is potentially indicative of fashion trends

Female Burying Beetles Benefit from Male Desertion: Sexual Conflict and Counter-Adaptation over Parental Investment

Sexual conflict drives the coevolution of sexually antagonistic traits, such that an adaptation in one sex selects an opposing coevolutionary response from the other. Although many adaptations and counteradaptations have been identified in sexual conflict over mating interactions, few are known for sexual conflict over parental investment. Here we investigate a possible coevolutionary sequence triggered by mate desertion in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides, where males commonly leave before their offspring reach independence. Rather than suffer fitness costs as a consequence, our data suggest that females rely on the male's absence to recoup some of the costs of larval care, presumably because they are then free to feed themselves on the carcass employed for breeding. Consequently, forcing males to stay until the larvae disperse reduces components of female fitness to a greater extent than caring for young singlehandedly. Therefore we suggest that females may have co-evolved to anticipate desertion by their partners so that they now benefit from the male's absence

Serum methylarginines and spirometry-measured lung function in older adults

Rationale: Methylarginines are endogenous nitric oxide synthase inhibitors that have been implicated in animal models of lung disease but have not previously been examined for their association with spirometric measures of lung function in humans. Objectives: This study measured serum concentrations of asymmetric and symmetric dimethylarginine in a representative sample of older community-dwelling adults and determined their association with spirometric lung function measures. Methods: Data on clinical, lifestyle, and demographic characteristics, methylated arginines, and L-arginine (measured using LC-MS/MS) were collected from a population-based sample of older Australian adults from the Hunter Community Study. The five key lung function measures included as outcomes were Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second, Forced Vital Capacity, Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second to Forced Vital Capacity ratio, Percent Predicted Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second, and Percent Predicted Forced Vital Capacity. Measurements and Main Results: In adjusted analyses there were statistically significant independent associations between a) higher asymmetric dimethylarginine, lower Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second and lower Forced Vital Capacity; and b) lower L-arginine/asymmetric dimethylarginine ratio, lower Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second, lower Percent Predicted Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second and lower Percent Predicted Forced Vital Capacity. By contrast, no significant associations were observed between symmetric dimethylarginine and lung function. Conclusions: After adjusting for clinical, demographic, biochemical, and pharmacological confounders, higher serum asymmetric dimethylarginine was independently associated with a reduction in key measures of lung function. Further research is needed to determine if methylarginines predict the decline in lung function