A diagnostic conundrum

A 26-year-old man was referred with facial weakness, dysarthria, dysphagia, ophthalmoparesis and severely weak and wasted legs. His symptoms had begun when aged 20 with electric shock pains and paraesthesia in both feet progressing over 6 months to the lower calves. He then developed buttock numbness and occasional faecal incontinence. By age 22, he had diffuse lower limb weakness and wasting, with difficulty standing from a seated position and frequent tripping. He became wheelchair-dependent within 3 years

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens

Using Biomarkers to Inform Cumulative Risk Assessment

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers are considered the method of choice for determining exposure to environmental contaminants and relating such exposures to health outcomes. However, the association between many biomarkers and outcome is not direct because of variability in sensitivity and susceptibility in the individual. OBJECTIVES: We explore the relationship between environmental exposures and health outcomes as mitigated by differential susceptibility in individuals or populations and address the question “Can biomarkers enable us to understand and quantify better the population burden of disease and health effects attributable to environmental exposures?” METHODS: We use a case–study approach to develop the thesis that biomarkers offer a pathway to disaggregation of health effects into specific, if multiple, risk factors. We offer the point of view that a series or array of biomarkers, including biomarkers of exposure, biomarkers of susceptibility, and biomarkers of effect, used in concert offer the best means by which to effect this disaggregation. We commence our discussion by developing the characteristics of an ideal biomarker, then give some examples of commonly used biomarkers to show the strengths and weaknesses of current usage. We follow this by more detailed case-study assessment outlining the state-of-the-science in specific cases. We complete our work with recommendations regarding the future use of biomarkers and areas for continued development. CONCLUSIONS: The case studies provide examples of when and how biomarkers can be used to infer the source and magnitude of exposure among a set of competing sources and pathways. The answer to this question is chemical specific and relates to how well the biomarker matches the characteristics of an “ideal” biomarker–in particular ease of collection and persistence. The use of biomarkers in combination provides a better opportunity to disaggregate both source and pathway contributions

Anthropometric indices of Gambian children after one or three annual rounds of mass drug administration with azithromycin for trachoma control.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin, carried out for the control of blinding trachoma, has been linked to reduced mortality in children. While the mechanism behind this reduction is unclear, it may be due, in part, to improved nutritional status via a potential reduction in the community burden of infectious disease. To determine whether MDA with azithromycin improves anthropometric indices at the community level, we measured the heights and weights of children aged 1 to 4 years in communities where one (single MDA arm) or three annual rounds (annual MDA arm) of azithromycin had been distributed. METHODS: Data collection took place three years after treatment in the single MDA arm and one year after the final round of treatment in the annual MDA arm. Mean height-for-age, weight-for-age and weight-for-height z scores were compared between treatment arms. RESULTS: No significant differences in mean height-for-age, weight-for-age or weight-for-height z scores were found between the annual MDA and single MDA arms, nor was there a significant reduction in prevalence of stunting, wasting or underweight between arms. CONCLUSIONS: Our data do not provide evidence that community MDA with azithromycin improved anthropometric outcomes of children in The Gambia. This may suggest reductions in mortality associated with azithromycin MDA are due to a mechanism other than improved nutritional status

Medication administration errors for older people in long-term residential care

Background Older people in long-term residential care are at increased risk of medication errors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a computerised barcode medication management system designed to improve drug administrations in residential and nursing homes, including comparison of error rates and staff awareness in both settings. Methods All medication administrations were recorded prospectively for 345 older residents in thirteen care homes during a 3-month period using the computerised system. Staff were surveyed to identify their awareness of administration errors prior to system introduction. Overall, 188,249 attempts to administer medication were analysed to determine the prevalence of potential medication administration errors (MAEs). Error classifications included attempts to administer medication at the wrong time, to the wrong person or discontinued medication. Analysis compared data at residential and nursing home level and care and nursing staff groups. Results Typically each resident was exposed to 206 medication administration episodes every month and received nine different drugs. Administration episodes were more numerous (p < 0.01) in nursing homes (226.7 per resident) than in residential homes (198.7). Prior to technology introduction, only 12% of staff administering drugs reported they were aware of administration errors being averted in their care home. Following technology introduction, 2,289 potential MAEs were recorded over three months. The most common MAE was attempting to give medication at the wrong time. On average each resident was exposed to 6.6 potential errors. In total, 90% of residents were exposed to at least one MAE with over half (52%) exposed to serious errors such as attempts to give medication to the wrong resident. MAEs rates were significantly lower (p < 0.01) in residential homes than nursing homes. The level of non-compliance with system alerts was low in both settings (0.075% of administrations) demonstrating virtually complete error avoidance. Conclusion Potentially inappropriate administration of medication is a serious problem in long-term residential care. A computerised barcode system can accurately and automatically detect inappropriate attempts to administer drugs to residents. This tool can reliably be used by care staff as well as nurses to improve quality of care and patient safety

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Intestinal Parasitic Infection among Children in an Urban Slum of Karachi

Background:Intestinal parasitic infections are endemic worldwide and have been described as constituting the greatest single worldwide cause of illness and disease. Poverty, illiteracy, poor hygiene, lack of access to potable water and hot and humid tropical climate are the factors associated with intestinal parasitic infections. The study aimed to estimate prevalence and identify factors associated with intestinal parasitic infections among 1 to 5 years old children residing in an urban slum of Karachi Pakistan. Methods And PrincipalFindings:A cross sectional survey was conducted from February to June 2006 in Ghosia Colony Gulshan Town Karachi, Pakistan. A simple random sample of 350 children aged 1-5 years was collected. The study used structured pre-tested questionnaire, anthropometric tools and stool tests to obtain epidemiological and disease data. Data were analyzed using appropriate descriptive, univariate and multivariable logistic regression methods. The mean age of participants was 2.8 years and 53% were male. The proportions of wasted, stunted and underweight children were 10.4%, 58.9% and 32.7% respectively. The prevalence of Intestinal parasitic infections was estimated to be 52.8% (95% CI: 46.1, 59.4). Giardia lamblia was the most common parasite followed by Ascaris lumbricoides, Blastocystis hominis and Hymenolepis nana. About 43% children were infected with single parasite and 10% with multiple parasites. Age {Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1, 1.9}, living in rented households (aOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.9) and history of excessive crying (aOR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.4) were significantly associated with intestinal parasitic infections.Conclusion:Intestinal parasites are highly prevalent in this setting and poverty was implicated as an important risk factor for infection. Effective poverty reduction programmes and promotion of deworming could reduce intestinal parasite carriage. There is a need for mass scale campaigns to create awareness about health and hygiene

Application of two machine learning algorithms to genetic association studies in the presence of covariates

BACKGROUND: Population-based investigations aimed at uncovering genotype-trait associations often involve high-dimensional genetic polymorphism data as well as information on multiple environmental and clinical parameters. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a straightforward analytic approach for selecting subsets of these inputs that are most predictive of a pre-defined trait. The performance of these algorithms, however, in the presence of covariates is not well characterized. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this manuscript, we investigate two approaches: Random Forests (RFs) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Through multiple simulation studies, the performance under several underlying models is evaluated. An application to a cohort of HIV-1 infected individuals receiving anti-retroviral therapies is also provided. CONCLUSION: Consistent with more traditional regression modeling theory, our findings highlight the importance of considering the nature of underlying gene-covariate-trait relationships before applying ML algorithms, particularly when there is potential confounding or effect mediation

Twenty two cases of canine neural angiostronglyosis in eastern Australia (2002-2005) and a review of the literature

Cases of canine neural angiostrongylosis (NA) with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) evaluations in the peer-reviewed literature were tabulated. All cases were from Australia. A retrospective cohort of 59 dogs was contrasted with a series of 22 new cases where NA was diagnosed by the presence of both eosinophilic pleocytosis and anti-Angiostrongylus cantonensis immunloglobulins (IgG) in CSF, determined by ELISA or Western blot. Both cohorts were drawn from south east Queensland and Sydney. The retrospective cohort comprised mostly pups presented for hind limb weakness with hyperaesthesia, a mixture of upper motor neurone (UMN) and lower motor neurone (LMN) signs in the hind limbs and urinary incontinence. Signs were attributed to larval migration through peripheral nerves, nerve roots, spinal cord and brain associated with an ascending eosinophilic meningo-encephomyelitis. The contemporary cohort consisted of a mixture of pups, young adult and mature dogs, with a wider range of signs including (i) paraparesis/proprioceptive ataxia (ii) lumbar and tail base hyperaesthesia, (iii) multi-focal central nervous system dysfunction, or (iv) focal disease with neck pain, cranial neuropathy and altered mentation. Cases were seen throughout the year, most between April and July (inclusive). There was a preponderance of large breeds. Often littermates, or multiple animals from the same kennel, were affected simultaneously or sequentially. A presumptive diagnosis was based on consistent signs, proximity to rats, ingestion/chewing of slugs or snails and eosinophilic pleocytosis. NA was diagnosed by demonstrating anti-A. cantonensis IgG in CSF. Detecting anti-A. cantonensis IgG in serum was unhelpful because many normal dogs (20/21 lb dogs; 8/22 of a hospital population) had such antibodies, often at substantial titres. Most NA cases in the contemporary series (19/22) and many pups (16/38) in the retrospective cohort were managed successfully using high doses of prednisolone and opioids. Treatment often included antibiotics administered in case protozoan encephalomyelitis or translocated bacterial meningitis was present. Supportive measures included bladder care and physiotherapy. Several dogs were left with permanent neural deficits. Dogs are an important sentinel species for NA. Human cases and numerous cases in tawny frogmouths were reported from the same regions as affected dogs over the study period

Urinary levels of N-nitroso compounds in relation to risk of gastric cancer: Findings from the Shanghai cohort study

Background: N-Nitroso compounds are thought to play a significant role in the development of gastric cancer. Epidemiological data, however, are sparse in examining the associations between biomarkers of exposure to N-nitroso compounds and the risk of gastric cancer. Methods: A nested case-control study within a prospective cohort of 18,244 middle-aged and older men in Shanghai, China, was conducted to examine the association between urinary level of N-nitroso compounds and risk of gastric cancer. Information on demographics, usual dietary intake, and use of alcohol and tobacco was collected through in-person interviews at enrollment. Urinary levels of nitrate, nitrite, N-nitroso-2-methylthiazolidine-4-carboxylic acid (NMTCA), N-nitrosoproline (NPRO), N-nitrososarcosine (NSAR), N-nitrosothiazolidine-4-carboxylic acid (NTCA), as well as serum H. pylori antibodies were quantified in 191 gastric cancer cases and 569 individually matched controls. Logistic regression method was used to assess the association between urinary levels of N-nitroso compounds and risk of gastric cancer. Results: Compared with controls, gastric cancer patients had overall comparable levels of urinary nitrate, nitrite, and N-nitroso compounds. Among individuals seronegative for antibodies to H. pylori, elevated levels of urinary nitrate were associated with increased risk of gastric cancer. The multivariate-adjusted odds ratios for the second and third tertiles of nitrate were 3.27 (95% confidence interval = 0.76-14.04) and 4.82 (95% confidence interval = 1.05-22.17), respectively, compared with the lowest tertile (P for trend = 0.042). There was no statistically significant association between urinary levels of nitrite or N-nitroso compounds and risk of gastric cancer. Urinary NMTCA level was significantly associated with consumption of alcohol and preserved meat and fish food items. Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that exposure to nitrate, a precursor of N-nitroso compounds, may increase the risk of gastric cancer among individuals without a history of H. pylori infection

First integrative trend analysis for a great ape species in Borneo

For many threatened species the rate and drivers of population decline are difficult to assess accurately: species’ surveys are typically restricted to small geographic areas, are conducted over short time periods, and employ a wide range of survey protocols. We addressed methodological challenges for assessing change in the abundance of an endangered species. We applied novel methods for integrating field and interview survey data for the critically endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus), allowing a deeper understanding of the species’ persistence through time. Our analysis revealed that Bornean orangutan populations have declined at a rate of 25% over the last 10 years. Survival rates of the species are lowest in areas with intermediate rainfall, where complex interrelations between soil fertility, agricultural productivity, and human settlement patterns influence persistence. These areas also have highest threats from human-wildlife conflict. Survival rates are further positively associated with forest extent, but are lower in areas where surrounding forest has been recently converted to industrial agriculture. Our study highlights the urgency of determining specific management interventions needed in different locations to counter the trend of decline and its associated drivers