Credit Risk Assessment in Microfinance Institutions Through Scoring: Moroccan Case

Microfinance institutions are organizations that provide financial services to people who are poor or excluded from the financial system. However, they often face many difficulties, such as non-repayment of loans by borrowers. In developing countries like Morocco, this situation has led to the failure of several microcredit institutions. Before granting such loans, MFIs face difficulties in assessing the riskiness of potential borrowers. In this context, efficient instruments are needed to assess credit risk, The credit scoring model is a mathematical model used to estimate the probability of default, i.e., the likelihood that customers will trigger a credit event (i.e., bankruptcy, bond default, payment default, and cross-default events). The effectiveness of scoring depends not so much on the technical tools used as in the systematic training of users, credit officers and branch managers will only be convinced that scoring can help them make decisions if they understand how it works and can observe it in concrete tests. This paper describes how credit scoring works, what microcredit institutions can expect from it and how they can use it, as well as the data required. An empirical study was conducted in 1021 borrowers of a Moroccan microfinance institution, in order to show the predictive capacity of credit scoring models and to identify the explanatory variables of the probability of default of loans granted by MFIs, using a logistic regression model. The results obtained show that the main variables in this regard are the amount of the loan, the number of arrears, the collateral provided, the credit analyst's assessment, the borrower's male gender and the level and trend of the general stock market index. The results  presented advance the results of previous research and may be useful to MFI managers, regulatory institutions, financial analysts, and academic researchers.     JEL Classification: G2, G3, C58  Paper type: Empirical researchMicrofinance institutions are organizations that provide financial services to people who are poor or excluded from the financial system. However, they often face many difficulties, such as non-repayment of loans by borrowers. In developing countries like Morocco, this situation has led to the failure of several microcredit institutions. Before granting such loans, MFIs face difficulties in assessing the riskiness of potential borrowers. In this context, efficient instruments are needed to assess credit risk, The credit scoring model is a mathematical model used to estimate the probability of default, i.e., the likelihood that customers will trigger a credit event (i.e., bankruptcy, bond default, payment default, and cross-default events). The effectiveness of scoring depends not so much on the technical tools used as in the systematic training of users, credit officers and branch managers will only be convinced that scoring can help them make decisions if they understand how it works and can observe it in concrete tests. This paper describes how credit scoring works, what microcredit institutions can expect from it and how they can use it, as well as the data required. An empirical study was conducted in 1021 borrowers of a Moroccan microfinance institution, in order to show the predictive capacity of credit scoring models and to identify the explanatory variables of the probability of default of loans granted by MFIs, using a logistic regression model. The results obtained show that the main variables in this regard are the amount of the loan, the number of arrears, the collateral provided, the credit analyst's assessment, the borrower's male gender and the level and trend of the general stock market index. The results  presented advance the results of previous research and may be useful to MFI managers, regulatory institutions, financial analysts, and academic researchers.     JEL Classification: G2, G3, C58  Paper type: Empirical researc

Exports price and non-price competitiveness: comparative analysis between morocco and some emerging countries

Exports represent a major component of the economic growth of countries, especially for a small open economy such as the Moroccan economy. Since its independence, Morocco has invested a great deal of effort in order to gain its external balance. The blocking of its import substitution strategy between 1960 and 1962, based on the protection and development of local industry, pushed it to embark on a policy of openness and liberalization. The latter was concretized by the adoption of a promotion policy for exports and international outsourcing from 1983 onwards. In the light of the phenomenon of the globalization of the value chain and the internationalization of production, the country has been oriented towards a policy of specialization in new world trades since 2005. In spite of these efforts, the trade deficit continues to grow annually. This can be explained by the increase in imported products, which are indeed imperative and indispensable for the good functioning of the national economy. This observation implies the importance of improving the competitiveness of Moroccan exports. In this sense, the analysis of the determinants of Moroccan export competitiveness is judicious. This document aims to establish a comparative analysis of export competitiveness and its determinants between Morocco and certain emerging countries. The result of the benchmark enables to conclude the importance of structural factors as well as price factors in the improvement of the countries' export performance. The Chinese and Turkish experiences discussed in this document are rich in lessons.  However, these models can inspire Morocco, which is still a young economy looking for pillars to withstand competition and stand out internationally.Exports represent a major component of the economic growth of countries, especially for a small open economy such as the Moroccan economy. Since its independence, Morocco has invested a great deal of effort in order to gain its external balance. The blocking of its import substitution strategy between 1960 and 1962, based on the protection and development of local industry, pushed it to embark on a policy of openness and liberalization. The latter was concretized by the adoption of a promotion policy for exports and international outsourcing from 1983 onwards. In the light of the phenomenon of the globalization of the value chain and the internationalization of production, the country has been oriented towards a policy of specialization in new world trades since 2005. In spite of these efforts, the trade deficit continues to grow annually. This can be explained by the increase in imported products, which are indeed imperative and indispensable for the good functioning of the national economy. This observation implies the importance of improving the competitiveness of Moroccan exports. In this sense, the analysis of the determinants of Moroccan export competitiveness is judicious. This document aims to establish a comparative analysis of export competitiveness and its determinants between Morocco and certain emerging countries. The result of the benchmark enables to conclude the importance of structural factors as well as price factors in the improvement of the countries' export performance. The Chinese and Turkish experiences discussed in this document are rich in lessons.  However, these models can inspire Morocco, which is still a young economy looking for pillars to withstand competition and stand out internationally

Examining the Nexus Water Demand-Economic Growth in Morocco: A Tapio Decoupling Index Analysis

Water, the lifeblood of our planet, plays a crucial role not only in sustaining ecosystems but also in driving economic activities. Its pivotal importance in agriculture, industry, and human consumption makes it a non-negotiable element for societal progress and well-being. Yet, as vital as it is for economic development, its waning availability is sounding alarms worldwide, emphasizing the need for decoupling economic growth from water use. This holds especially true for nations like Morocco, grappling with water management challenges due to its arid and semi-arid climate. This research paper delves into the relationship between Morocco's economic growth and water demand from 1980 to 2017, utilizing the Tapio decoupling index. The findings indicate that water demand is decoupled from economic growth only in the absence of drought, suggesting that Morocco lacks resilience to climate change. These insights underscore the pressing need for robust and resilient water management approaches to ensure long-term economic and environmental sustainability in Morocco. Relying solely on adaptation might not suffice given the recurrent droughts intensified by climate change risks. Hence, a priority for decision-makers should be formulating strategies that enhance resilience.   Keywords: Water scarcity, Tapio decoupling index, Economic growth, Resilience, Morocco. Classification JEL : Q21- Q25- Q56 Paper type: Empirical Research L'eau, élément vital de notre planète, joue un rôle crucial non seulement dans le maintien des écosystèmes, mais aussi dans la conduite des activités économiques. Son importance capitale dans l'agriculture, l'industrie et la consommation humaine en fait un élément non négociable pour le progrès et le bien-être de la société. Pourtant, aussi vitale soit-elle pour le développement économique, sa disponibilité décroissante sonne l'alarme dans le monde entier, soulignant la nécessité de découpler la croissance économique de l'utilisation de l'eau. Cela est particulièrement vrai pour des pays comme le Maroc, aux prises avec des problèmes de gestion de l'eau en raison de son climat aride et semi-aride. Ce document de recherche se penche sur la relation entre la croissance économique du Maroc et la demande en eau de 1980 à 2017, en utilisant l'indice de découplage Tapio. Les résultats indiquent que la demande en eau n'est découplée de la croissance économique qu'en l'absence de sécheresse, ce qui suggère que le Maroc manque de résilience face au changement climatique. Ces informations soulignent le besoin pressant d'approches de gestion de l'eau robustes et résilientes pour assurer la durabilité économique et environnementale à long terme au Maroc. Compter uniquement sur l'adaptation pourrait ne pas suffire étant donné les sécheresses récurrentes intensifiées a cause du changement climatique. Par conséquent, une priorité pour les décideurs devrait être de formuler des stratégies qui renforcent la résilience.   Mots clés : Pénurie d'eau, Indice de découplage Tapio, Croissance économique, Résilience, Maroc. JEL Classification : Q21- Q25- Q56 Type du papier : Recherche Empiriqu

A SPECIFIC COBB-DOUGLAS MODEL AND THE PERFORMAMNCE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION IN THE FRAMEWORK OF MANAGEMENT CONTROL MECHANISM

The position of public administrations at the centre of major socio-economic development projects means that these administrations are strongly requested to perform their productivity mechanisms. Any failure affects systematically development and society, explaining why management control is an essential tool for mitigating risks and failures and increasing the performance and productivity possibilities of these administrations. Thus, management control will be considered through a carefully proposed Cobb-Douglas model adapted to the public sector of the Moroccan administration. The importance and the originality of this work reside respectively in the scientific engineering position of the Cobb-Douglas formalism and in the interpretation that we give to the production scale factors K and L for a rational and reliable adaptation

Morocco's exports today: A real legacy from the past

Exports of goods and services are a major driver of the economic and social development of countries, especially in the case of small open economies, such as Morocco. Since independence, Moroccan exports have been characterised by a concentration on basic products and a relatively weak evolution in comparison with competitors. Since 2005, these exports have undergone a profound structural transformation. The integration of the Moroccan economy in the new world trades has changed the base of specialisation of the country. It has gone from a country specialised in the production and export of agricultural products and textiles to a country producing and exporting automobile, electrical and aeronautical products. Therefore, forecasting Moroccan exports are of great importance for policy makers and government. The most popular and appropriate model for forecasting macroeconomic series in the literature are times series models. In this paper, we test whether the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model can forecast Moroccan exports. To do so, we follow the modelling process developed by Box & Jenkins (1976), namely: identification of the susceptible models, parameter estimates and validation testing. The results show that satisfactory forecasts can be obtained using the ARIMA model (0,1,0) or AR (1). This confirms the idea that the behaviour of exports today is the result of a rich historical antecedent of events. The examination of the country's economic history allows us to deduce the importance of structural factors for the development of exports. This analysis can serve as the basis for a multivariate model for the behaviour of Moroccan exports in the future.Exports of goods and services are a major driver of the economic and social development of countries, especially in the case of small open economies, such as Morocco. Since independence, Moroccan exports have been characterised by a concentration on basic products and a relatively weak evolution in comparison with competitors. Since 2005, these exports have undergone a profound structural transformation. The integration of the Moroccan economy in the new world trades has changed the base of specialisation of the country. It has gone from a country specialised in the production and export of agricultural products and textiles to a country producing and exporting automobile, electrical and aeronautical products. Therefore, forecasting Moroccan exports are of great importance for policy makers and government. The most popular and appropriate model for forecasting macroeconomic series in the literature are times series models. In this paper, we test whether the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model can forecast Moroccan exports. To do so, we follow the modelling process developed by Box & Jenkins (1976), namely: identification of the susceptible models, parameter estimates and validation testing. The results show that satisfactory forecasts can be obtained using the ARIMA model (0,1,0) or AR (1). This confirms the idea that the behaviour of exports today is the result of a rich historical antecedent of events. The examination of the country's economic history allows us to deduce the importance of structural factors for the development of exports. This analysis can serve as the basis for a multivariate model for the behaviour of Moroccan exports in the future

Integrating Climate Policy, Social inclusion, and Indigenous Knowledge: Toward a Holistic Approach for Morocco's Sustainable Future

This study explores the intrinsic integration of climate policy, social inclusion, and indigenous knowledge in the context of Morocco's unique socio-cultural context. Despite their recognized individual importance, the literature lacks comprehensive insights into the transformative potential of this triangular approach. Based on existing research and theoretical frameworks, this study highlights the lack of exploration into how the interaction of these elements can foster effective climate policies and promote social cohesion. The detailed analysis highlights the need for empirical investigation to fill this gap and shed light on the complex dynamics between climate policy, social inclusion, and indigenous knowledge. This study aims to unveil unexploited potential for sustainable development by proposing a comprehensive framework that recognizes the interdependencies and potential benefits of integrating these dimensions. By filling this gap, this research contributes to academic discourse and policy formulation by offering insight into developing climate policies that embrace social inclusion and leverage indigenous knowledge for climate resilience in the Moroccan context. This study provides a roadmap for future studies to explore the complexities, nuances, and tangible impacts of this integrated approach in the Moroccan context and beyond, ultimately contributing to creating more informed and equitable climate policies in other countries.   Keywords: Climate Policy, Indigenous knowledge, social cohesion, Morocco. Classification JEL : E61, F68, J15, Q01 Paper type: Theoretical ResearchCet article explore l'intégration de la politique climatique, de l'inclusion sociale et des connaissances indigènes dans le contexte socioculturel marocain. Malgré leur importance respective, la littérature manque de perspectives globales sur le potentiel de cette approche transversale. Sur la base des études et des cadres théoriques existants, cet article met en évidence le manque d'exploration de la manière dont l'interaction de ces aspects peut favoriser la mise en place de politiques climatiques efficaces et promouvoir la cohésion sociale. Notre analyse met en évidence la nécessité d'une enquête empirique pour combler cette lacune et mettre en lumière sur la dynamique complexe entre la politique climatique, l'inclusion sociale et les connaissances indigènes. Cette étude vise à dévoiler un potentiel inexploité pour le développement durable en proposant un cadre global qui reconnaît les interdépendances et les avantages potentiels de l'intégration de ces trois dimensions. En comblant cette lacune, cette recherche contribue au développement du champ académique en offrant un aperçu de l'élaboration de politiques climatiques qui intègrent l'inclusion sociale et tirent parti des savoirs ancestraux pour la résilience climatique dans le contexte marocain. Cette étude fournit une feuille de route pour de futures études visant à explorer les complexités, les nuances et les impacts tangibles de cette approche intégrée dans le contexte marocain, contribuant finalement à créer des politiques climatiques plus éclairées et plus équitables dans d'autres pays.   Mots clés : Politique climatique, Connaissances indigènes, Inclusion sociale, Maroc. JEL Classification : E61, F68, J15, Q01 Type du papier : Recherche Théoriqu

LA MICROFINANCE ET L’EMPOWERMENT DES FEMMES : REVUE DE LA LITTERATURE

La microfinance est un outil de lutte contre la pauvreté et de l’inégalité sociale, à travers le financement des activités génératrices de revenus. la microfinance vise les populations exclues du système bancaire classique, et leur permet d’accéder à un crédit, afin, d’améliorer leurs conditions de vie. Aujourd’hui, la notion d’empowerment est utilisée dans la politique de développement. Elle décrit les actions de lutte contre la pauvreté, où le bénéficiaire reçoit une aide, qui lui permet d’améliorer ses conditions de vie par lui-même. La microfinance joue un rôle important dans les stratégies de développement et d’égalité entre les deux sexes à cause de son lien direct avec la lutte contre la pauvreté. En effet, en donnant aux femmes l’accès à des formations et des fonds de roulement, la microfinance peut aider à mobiliser la capacité de production des femmes pour réduire la pauvreté et maximiser le rendement économique. L’objet de ce papier consiste à analyser l’impact des services de la microfinance sur l’empowerment des femmes. Pour cela, Nous avons effectué une revue de littérature afin d’étudier l’impact de la microfinance sur la valorisation de l’empowerment des femmes

La rationalité économique de l’homoéconomicus à l’épreuve des biais cognitifs : une lecture alternative

With the abundance of goods and the diversity of choices, the consumer has introduced several new considerations in the phase of materializing his needs in the form of desires, this operation is associated with errors of judgments explained by the cognitive biases of the human being, which requires a new reading of the models and rules on which consumer behavior is based. Based on this observation, also characterized by the emergence of behavioral economics, in particular with Daniel Kahneman's obtaining the “Nobel Prize” in economics for his work in this field, I tried to clarify this point in the microeconomics field by re-reading the laws of economic rationality (Gossen's laws, etc.) to conclude that the consumer is no longer governed by the laws of microeconomics and the latter's shift from “homo- economicus "to" homo-relative "from where I thought of making an attempt to diagnose the variables allowing the construction of a model which can explain the behavior of the consumer. We can say that the objective of this article is to show the anomalies of homoeconomicus, the figure which represents the neoclassical model of a rational economic agent which remains normative and abstract, hence the need to find another alternative model , more realistic, more efficient and relevant, capable of reflecting the true motivations of human behavior and of defining economic rationality in its multidimensional sense which respects the cognitive and psychosociological peculiarities of the human entity.   JEL Classification : D910 Paper Type : Theoretical ResearchAvec l’abondance des biens et la diversité des choix, le consommateur a introduit plusieurs nouvelles considérations dans la phase de la matérialisation de ses besoins sous forme des désirs, cette opération est associée par des erreurs de jugement expliquées par les biais cognitifs de l’être humain, ce qui impose une nouvelle lecture des modèles et des règles sur lesquels s’appuie le comportement du consommateur. En se basant sur ce constat caractérisé aussi par l’émergence de l’économie comportementale  notamment avec l’obtention de Daniel Kahneman du « prix Nobel » en sciences économiques sur ses travaux dans ce domaine, j’ai essayé d’éclaircir ce point dans le domaine micro-économie à travers la relecture des lois de la rationalité économique (lois de Gossen,…) pour conclure que le consommateur n’est plus gouverné par les lois de la micro-économie et le passage de ce dernier de « homo-économicus » à « homo-relatives » d’où j’ai pensé de faire un essai de diagnostiquer les variables permettant la construction d’un modèle qui peut expliquer le comportement du consommateur . On peut dire que l’objectif de cet article est de montrer les anomalies de l’homoéconomicus, la figure qui représente le modèle néoclassique d’un agent économique rationnel qui reste normatif et abstrait, d’où la nécessité de trouver un autre modèle alternatif, plus réaliste, plus performant et pertinent, capable de refléter les vraies motivations du comportement humain et de définir la rationalité économique dans son sens multidimensionnel qui respecte les particularités cognitives et psychosociologiques de l’entité humaine.        Classification JEL : D910 Type de l’article : Recherche théoriqu