Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for operational planning for up to two years ahead, and for long-term forecasts in some situations, such as population forecasting. This paper provides principles for selecting and preparing data, making seasonal adjustments, extrapolating, assessing uncertainty, and identifying when to use extrapolation. The principles are based on received wisdom (i.e., experts’ commonly held opinions) and on empirical studies. Some of the more important principles are:• In selecting and preparing data, use all relevant data and adjust the data for important events that occurred in the past.• Make seasonal adjustments only when seasonal effects are expected and only if there is good evidence by which to measure them.• In extrapolating, use simple functional forms. Weight the most recent data heavily if there are small measurement errors, stable series, and short forecast horizons. Domain knowledge and forecasting expertise can help to select effective extrapolation procedures. When there is uncertainty, be conservative in forecasting trends. Update extrapolation models as new data are received.• To assess uncertainty, make empirical estimates to establish prediction intervals.• Use pure extrapolation when many forecasts are required, little is known about the situation, the situation is stable, and expert forecasts might be biased

Egg rejection in blackbirds Turdus merula: a by-product of conspecific parasitism or successful resistance against interspecific brood parasites?

Traditional theory assumes that egg recognition and rejection abilities arise as a response against interspecific brood parasitism (IBP). However, rejection also appears in some species that are currently not exploited by interspecific parasites, such as Turdus thrushes. Recent evidences suggest that rejection abilities evolved in these species as a response to conspecific brood parasitism (CBP). To test these two alternative hypotheses, we performed an experimental study by parasitizing nests of the common blackbird (Turdus merula) with conspecifics or heterospecific eggs under different risk of parasitism (presence of interspecific or conspecific parasites near the nest). Common blackbird is a potential host of the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus) but suffers low levels of CBP too. Results: We found that blackbirds were able to recognize and eject heterospecific eggs at high rates whereas most of conspecifics eggs were not recognized and, therefore, accepted. Ejection rates of conspecific eggs did not exceed 13 %, even in situations of high risk of CBP (blackbird female placed near the nest), which contradict the main prediction derived from the CBP hypothesis. Conversely, ejection rates of experimental eggs simulating IBP were much higher (80–100 %). Furthermore, female blackbirds were more aggressive towards cuckoos than towards blackbird dummies. Conclusions: Our results considered together support the IBP hypothesis, indicating that recognition and rejection of parasitic eggs in blackbirds have probably evolved due to previous cuckoo parasitism. The current absence of IBP in blackbirds may be due to the highly efficient rejection abilities in this species. Thus, these abilities have been retained in absence of brood parasitism as a consequence of the low costs involved for blackbirds, resulting in a successful resistance against interspecific brood parasitism.Financial support has been provided by the Consejería Economía, Innovación, Ciencia y Empleo. Junta de Andalucia (research project CVI-6653)

Design concepts for the Cherenkov Telescope Array CTA: an advanced facility for ground-based high-energy gamma-ray astronomy

Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has had a major breakthrough with the impressive results obtained using systems of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has a huge potential in astrophysics, particle physics and cosmology. CTA is an international initiative to build the next generation instrument, with a factor of 5-10 improvement in sensitivity in the 100 GeV-10 TeV range and the extension to energies well below 100 GeV and above 100 TeV. CTA will consist of two arrays (one in the north, one in the south) for full sky coverage and will be operated as open observatory. The design of CTA is based on currently available technology. This document reports on the status and presents the major design concepts of CTA

A Hybrid Forecasting Framework with Neural Network and Time-Series Method for Intermittent Demand in Semiconductor Supply Chain

Part 2: Service Engineering Based on Smart Manufacturing CapabilitiesInternational audienceAs the primary prerequisite of capacity planning, inventory control and order management, demand forecast is a critical issue in semiconductor supply chain. A great quantity of stock keeping units (SKUs) with intermittent demand patterns and distinctive lead-times need specific prediction respectively. It is difficult for companies in semiconductor supply chain to manage intricate inventory systems with the changeable nature of intermittent (lumpy) demand. This study aims to propose an integrated forecasting approach with recurrent neural network and parametric method for intermittent demand problems to support flexible decisions in inventory management, as a critical role in intelligent supply chain. An empirical study was conducted with product time series in a semiconductor company in Taiwan to validate the practicality of proposed model. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid model can improve forecast accuracy in demand management of semiconductor supply chain