Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics

The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling - and manipulation - of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization

Location of pathogenic variants in PSEN1 impacts progression of cognitive, clinical, and neurodegenerative measures in autosomal-dominant Alzheimer's disease

Although pathogenic variants in PSEN1 leading to autosomal-dominant Alzheimer disease (ADAD) are highly penetrant, substantial interindividual variability in the rates of cognitive decline and biomarker change are observed in ADAD. We hypothesized that this interindividual variability may be associated with the location of the pathogenic variant within PSEN1. PSEN1 pathogenic variant carriers participating in the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network (DIAN) observational study were grouped based on whether the underlying variant affects a transmembrane (TM) or cytoplasmic (CY) protein domain within PSEN1. CY and TM carriers and variant non-carriers (NC) who completed clinical evaluation, multimodal neuroimaging, and lumbar puncture for collection of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) as part of their participation in DIAN were included in this study. Linear mixed effects models were used to determine differences in clinical, cognitive, and biomarker measures between the NC, TM, and CY groups. While both the CY and TM groups were found to have similarly elevated Aβ compared to NC, TM carriers had greater cognitive impairment, smaller hippocampal volume, and elevated phosphorylated tau levels across the spectrum of pre-symptomatic and symptomatic phases of disease as compared to CY, using both cross-sectional and longitudinal data. As distinct portions of PSEN1 are differentially involved in APP processing by γ-secretase and the generation of toxic β-amyloid species, these results have important implications for understanding the pathobiology of ADAD and accounting for a substantial portion of the interindividual heterogeneity in ongoing ADAD clinical trials

Exchange hazards, relational reliability, and contracts in China: The contingent role of legal enforceability

Building on institutional and transaction cost economics, this article proposes that legal enforceability increases the use of contract over relational reliability (e.g., beliefs that the other party acts in a non-opportunistic manner) to safeguard market exchanges characterized by non-trivial hazards. The results of 399 buyer-supplier exchanges in China show that: (1) when managers perceive that the legal system can protect their firm's interests, they tend to use explicit contracts rather than relational reliability to safeguard transactions involving risks (i.e., asset specificity, environmental uncertainty, and behavioral uncertainty); and (2) when managers do not perceive the legal system as credible, they are less likely to use contracts, and instead rely on relational reliability to safeguard transactions associated with specialized assets and environmental uncertainty, but not those involving behavioral uncertainty. We further find that legal enforceability does not moderate the effect of relational reliability on contracts, but does weaken the effect of contracts on relational reliability. These results endorse the importance of prior experience (e.g., relational reliability) in supporting the use of explicit contracts, and alternatively suggest that, under conditions of greater legal enforceability, the contract signals less regarding one's intention to be trustworthy but more about the efficacy of sanctions. © 2010 Academy of International Business All rights reserved.postprin

Predation Risk Shapes Social Networks in Fission-Fusion Populations

Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission) and merging (fusion) events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes) in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours) in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems

Gain through losses in nonlinear optics

Instabilities of uniform states are ubiquitous processes occurring in a variety of spatially extended nonlinear systems. These instabilities are at the heart of symmetry breaking, condensate dynamics, self-organization, pattern formation and noise amplification across diverse disciplines, including physics, chemistry, engineering and biology. In nonlinear optics, modulation instabilities are generally linked to the so-called parametric amplification process, which occurs when certain phase-matching or quasi-phase-matching conditions are satisfied. In the present review article, we summarize the principle results on modulation instabilities and parametric amplification in nonlinear optics, with special emphasis on optical fibres. We then review state-of-the-art research about a peculiar class of modulation instabilities and signal amplification processes induced by dissipation in nonlinear optical systems. Losses applied to certain parts of the spectrum counterintuitively lead to the exponential growth of the damped mode themselves, causing gain through losses. We discuss the concept of imaging of losses into gain, showing how to map a given spectral loss profile into a gain spectrum. We demonstrate with concrete examples that dissipation-induced modulation instability, apart from being of fundamental theoretical interest, may pave the way towards the design of a new class of tuneable fibre-based optical amplifiers, optical parametric oscillators, frequency comb sources and pulsed lasers

NALP3 inflammasome upregulation and CASP1 cleavage of the glucocorticoid receptor cause glucocorticoid resistance in leukemia cells

Glucocorticoids are universally used in the treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), and resistance to glucocorticoids in leukemia cells confers poor prognosis. To elucidate mechanisms of glucocorticoid resistance, we determined the prednisolone sensitivity of primary leukemia cells from 444 patients newly diagnosed with ALL and found significantly higher expression of CASP1 (encoding caspase 1) and its activator NLRP3 in glucocorticoid-resistant leukemia cells, resulting from significantly lower somatic methylation of the CASP1 and NLRP3 promoters. Overexpression of CASP1 resulted in cleavage of the glucocorticoid receptor, diminished the glucocorticoid-induced transcriptional response and increased glucocorticoid resistance. Knockdown or inhibition of CASP1 significantly increased glucocorticoid receptor levels and mitigated glucocorticoid resistance in CASP1-overexpressing ALL. Our findings establish a new mechanism by which the NLRP3-CASP1 inflammasome modulates cellular levels of the glucocorticoid receptor and diminishes cell sensitivity to glucocorticoids. The broad impact on the glucocorticoid transcriptional response suggests that this mechanism could also modify glucocorticoid effects in other diseases

Soluble TREM2 in CSF and its association with other biomarkers and cognition in autosomal-dominant Alzheimer's disease: a longitudinal observational study

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic modulation of TREM2-dependent microglial function might provide an additional strategy to slow the progression of Alzheimer's disease. Although studies in animal models suggest that TREM2 is protective against Alzheimer's pathology, its effect on tau pathology and its potential beneficial role in people with Alzheimer's disease is still unclear. Our aim was to study associations between the dynamics of soluble TREM2, as a biomarker of TREM2 signalling, and amyloid β (Aβ) deposition, tau-related pathology, neuroimaging markers, and cognitive decline, during the progression of autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease. METHODS: We did a longitudinal analysis of data from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network (DIAN) observational study, which includes families with a history of autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease. Participants aged over 18 years who were enrolled in DIAN between Jan 1, 2009, and July 31, 2019, were categorised as either carriers of pathogenic variants in PSEN1, PSEN2, and APP genes (n=155) or non-carriers (n=93). We measured amounts of cleaved soluble TREM2 using a novel immunoassay in CSF samples obtained every 2 years from participants who were asymptomatic (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR]=0) and annually for those who were symptomatic (CDR>0). CSF concentrations of Aβ40, Aβ42, total tau (t-tau), and tau phosphorylated on threonine 181 (p-tau) were measured by validated immunoassays. Predefined neuroimaging measurements were total cortical uptake of Pittsburgh compound B PET (PiB-PET), cortical thickness in the precuneus ascertained by MRI, and hippocampal volume determined by MRI. Cognition was measured using a validated cognitive composite (including DIAN word list test, logical memory delayed recall, digit symbol coding test [total score], and minimental status examination). We based our statistical analysis on univariate and bivariate linear mixed effects models. FINDINGS: In carriers of pathogenic variants, a high amyloid burden at baseline, represented by low CSF Aβ42 (β=–4·28 × 10^{–2} [SE 0·013], p=0·0012), but not high cortical uptake in PiB-PET (β=–5·51 × 10^{–3} [0·011], p=0·63), was the only predictor of an augmented annual rate of subsequent increase in soluble TREM2. Augmented annual rates of increase in soluble TREM2 were associated with a diminished rate of decrease in amyloid deposition, as measured by Aβ42 in CSF (r=0·56 [0·22], p=0·011), in presymptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants, and with diminished annual rate of increase in PiB-PET (r=–0·67 [0·25], p=0·0060) in symptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants. Presymptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants with annual rates of increase in soluble TREM2 lower than the median showed a correlation between enhanced annual rates of increase in p-tau in CSF and augmented annual rates of increase in PiB-PET signal (r=0·45 [0·21], p=0·035), that was not observed in those with rates of increase in soluble TREM2 higher than the median. Furthermore, presymptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants with rates of increase in soluble TREM2 above or below the median had opposite associations between Aβ42 in CSF and PiB-PET uptake when assessed longitudinally. Augmented annual rates of increase in soluble TREM2 in presymptomatic carriers of pathogenic variants correlated with decreased cortical shrinkage in the precuneus (r=0·46 [0·22]), p=0·040) and diminished cognitive decline (r=0·67 [0·22], p=0·0020). INTERPRETATION: Our findings in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease position the TREM2 response within the amyloid cascade immediately after the first pathological changes in Aβ aggregation and further support the role of TREM2 on Aβ plaque deposition and compaction. Furthermore, these findings underpin a beneficial effect of TREM2 on Aβ deposition, Aβ-dependent tau pathology, cortical shrinkage, and cognitive decline. Soluble TREM2 could, therefore, be a key marker for clinical trial design and interpretation. Efforts to develop TREM2-boosting therapies are ongoing

Metastatic chromophobe renal cell carcinoma treated with targeted therapies: A Renal Cross Channel Group study

$\textbf{Background}$ Treatment of non–clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC) remains controversial despite several recent prospective studies of targeted therapies (TT). Often Vascular Endothelial growth Factor (VEGF) and Mammalian Target of Rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitors are used, extrapolating the data from use of these agents in clear cell RCC. $\textbf{Methods}$ We performed a retrospective data analysis within the Renal Cross Channel Group to determine metastatic chromophobe RCC (mChRCC) outcomes in the TT era. The end-points were overall response, overall survival (OS) and time to treatment failure (TTF). The two latter were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. $\textbf{Results}$ 91 mChRCC patients from 26 centres were included. Median follow-up from the date of first metastasis was 6.1 years (range: 0–13.9). Median OS was 37.9 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.4–46.8) from the diagnosis of metastatic disease. Among the 61 patients who received TT, 50 (82%) were treated with anti-angiogenic (AA) and 11 with mTOR inhibitors. Median TTF and OS in patients receiving a first line of AA was 8.7 months (95% CI: 5.2–10.9) and 22.9 months (95% CI: 17.8–49.2) versus 1.9 months (95% CI: 1.0–6.0) and 3.2 months (95% CI: 2.3–not evaluable) with mTOR inhibitors, respectively. A stratified log-rank test was used to compare AA and mTOR inhibitors TT, while controlling the effect of the International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium risk group and no significant difference between AA and mTOR inhibitors was observed for TTF (p = 0.26) or for OS (p = 0.55). $\textbf{Conclusion}$ We report the largest retrospective cohort of patients with mChRCC treated with TT and no significant difference between AA and mTOR inhibitors was observed for TTF and OS

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation