On the choice of ensemble mean for estimating the forced signal in the presence of internal variability

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.In this paper we examine various options for the calculation of the forced signal in climate model simulations, and the impact these choices have on the estimates of internal variability. We find that an ensemble mean of runs from a single climate model [a single model ensemble mean (SMEM)] provides a good estimate of the true forced signal even for models with very few ensemble members. In cases where only a single member is available for a given model, however, the SMEM from other models is in general out-performed by the scaled ensemble mean from all available climate model simulations [the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM)]. The scaled MMEM may therefore be used as an estimate of the forced signal for observations. The MMEM method, however, leads to increasing errors further into the future, as the different rates of warming in the models causes their trajectories to diverge. We therefore apply the SMEM method to those models with a sufficient number of ensemble members to estimate the change in the amplitude of internal variability under a future forcing scenario. In line with previous results, we find that on average the surface air temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in precipitation increases on average, particularly at high latitudes. Variability in sea level pressure decreases on average in the Southern Hemisphere, while in the Northern Hemisphere there are regional differences.This work was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through grants to L. M. F. (DE170100367) and to M. H. E. through the ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate System Science (CE110001028). J. B. K. is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/N005783/1). B. A. S. was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (EAR-1447048)

Liraglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes

Background The cardiovascular effect of liraglutide, a glucagon-like peptide 1 analogue, when added to standard care in patients with type 2 diabetes, remains unknown. Methods In this double-blind trial, we randomly assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk to receive liraglutide or placebo. The primary composite outcome in the time-to-event analysis was the first occurrence of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. The primary hypothesis was that liraglutide would be noninferior to placebo with regard to the primary outcome, with a margin of 1.30 for the upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval of the hazard ratio. No adjustments for multiplicity were performed for the prespecified exploratory outcomes. Results A total of 9340 patients underwent randomization. The median follow-up was 3.8 years. The primary outcome occurred in significantly fewer patients in the liraglutide group (608 of 4668 patients [13.0%]) than in the placebo group (694 of 4672 [14.9%]) (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 0.97; P<0.001 for noninferiority; P=0.01 for superiority). Fewer patients died from cardiovascular causes in the liraglutide group (219 patients [4.7%]) than in the placebo group (278 [6.0%]) (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.93; P=0.007). The rate of death from any cause was lower in the liraglutide group (381 patients [8.2%]) than in the placebo group (447 [9.6%]) (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.97; P=0.02). The rates of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure were nonsignificantly lower in the liraglutide group than in the placebo group. The most common adverse events leading to the discontinuation of liraglutide were gastrointestinal events. The incidence of pancreatitis was nonsignificantly lower in the liraglutide group than in the placebo group. Conclusions In the time-to-event analysis, the rate of the first occurrence of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus was lower with liraglutide than with placebo. (Funded by Novo Nordisk and the National Institutes of Health; LEADER ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01179048 .)

The failure of suicide prevention in primary care: family and GP perspectives - a qualitative study

Background Although Primary care is crucial for suicide prevention, clinicians tend to report completed suicides in their care as non-preventable. We aimed to examine systemic inadequacies in suicide prevention from the perspectives of bereaved family members and GPs.Methods Qualitative study of 72 relatives or close friends bereaved by suicide and 19 General Practitioners who have experienced the suicide of patients.Results Relatives highlight failures in detecting symptoms and behavioral changes and the inability of GPs to understand the needs of patients and their social contexts. A perceived overreliance on anti-depressant treatment is a major source of criticism by family members. GPs tend to lack confidence in the recognition and management of suicidal patients, and report structural inadequacies in service provision.Conclusions Mental health and primary care services must find innovative and ethical ways to involve families in the decision-making process for patients at risk of suicide

Temporal trends (1977-2007) and ethnic inequity in child mortality in rural villages of southern Guinea Bissau

Background Guinea Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with one of the highest under-5 mortality rate. Despite its importance for policy planning, data on child mortality are often not available or of poor quality in low-income countries like Guinea Bissau. Our aim in this study was to use the baseline survey to estimate child mortality in rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau for a 30 years period prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention. We aimed to investigate temporal trends with emphasis on historical events and the effect of ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. Methods A baseline survey was conducted prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention to estimate child mortality in 241 rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau between 1977 and 2007. Crude child mortality rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method from birth history of 7854 women. Cox regression models were used to investigate the effects of birth periods with emphasis on historical events, ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. Results High levels of child mortality were found at all ages under five with a significant reduction in child mortality over the time periods of birth except for 1997-2001. That period comprises the 1998/99 civil war interval, when child mortality was 1.5% higher than in the previous period. Children of Balanta ethnic group had higher hazard of dying under five years of age than children from other groups until 2001. Between 2002 and 2007, Fula children showed the highest mortality. Increasing walking distance to the nearest health centre increased the hazard, though not substantially, and polygyny had a negligible and statistically not significant effect on the hazard. Conclusion Child mortality is strongly associated with ethnicity and it should be considered in health policy planning. Child mortality, though considerably decreased during the past 30 years, remains high in rural Guinea Bissau. Temporal trends also suggest that civil wars have detrimental effects on child mortality. Trial Registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN5243333

El Niño Modulations Over The Past Seven Centuries (Letter to the editor)

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Effects of oral semaglutide on cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and/or chronic kidney disease: Design and baseline characteristics of SOUL, a randomized trial

Aim: To describe the design of the SOUL trial (Semaglutide cardiOvascular oUtcomes triaL) and the baseline clinical data of its participants. Materials and methods: In SOUL, the effects of oral semaglutide, the first oral glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, on the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events in individuals with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD) and/or chronic kidney disease (CKD) will be assessed. SOUL is a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled CV outcomes trial comparing oral semaglutide (14 mg once daily) with placebo, both in addition to standard of care, in individuals aged ≥50 years with type 2 diabetes and evidence of ASCVD (coronary artery disease [CAD], cerebrovascular disease, symptomatic peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) and/or CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2). The primary outcome is time from randomization to first occurrence of a major adverse CV event (MACE; a composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke). This event-driven trial will continue until 1225 first adjudication-confirmed MACEs have occurred. Enrolment has been completed. Results: Overall, 9650 participants were enrolled between June 17, 2019 and March 24, 2021 (men 71.1%, White ethnicity 68.9%, mean age 66.1 years, diabetes duration 15.4 years, body mass index 31.1 kg/m2, glycated haemoglobin 63.5 mmol/mol [8.0%]). The most frequently used antihyperglycaemic medications at baseline were metformin (75.7%), insulin and insulin analogues (50.5%), sulphonylureas (29.1%), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (26.7%) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (23.0%). At randomization, 70.7% of participants had CAD, 42.3% had CKD, 21.1% had cerebrovascular disease and 15.7% had symptomatic PAD (categories not mutually exclusive). Prevalent heart failure was reported in 23.0% of participants. Conclusion: SOUL will provide evidence regarding the CV effects of oral semaglutide in individuals with type 2 diabetes and established ASCVD and/or CKD

Biogenesis of the inner membrane complex is dependent on vesicular transport by the alveolate specific GTPase Rab11B

Apicomplexan parasites belong to a recently recognised group of protozoa referred to as Alveolata. These protists contain membranous sacs (alveoli) beneath the plasma membrane, termed the Inner Membrane Complex (IMC) in the case of Apicomplexa. During parasite replication the IMC is formed de novo within the mother cell in a process described as internal budding. We hypothesized that an alveolate specific factor is involved in the specific transport of vesicles from the Golgi to the IMC and identified the small GTPase Rab11B as an alveolate specific Rab-GTPase that localises to the growing end of the IMC during replication of Toxoplasma gondii. Conditional interference with Rab11B function leads to a profound defect in IMC biogenesis, indicating that Rab11B is required for the transport of Golgi derived vesicles to the nascent IMC of the daughter cell. Curiously, a block in IMC biogenesis did not affect formation of sub-pellicular microtubules, indicating that IMC biogenesis and formation of sub-pellicular microtubules is not mechanistically linked. We propose a model where Rab11B specifically transports vesicles derived from the Golgi to the immature IMC of the growing daughter parasites

Inpatient COVID-19 mortality has reduced over time: Results from an observational cohort

BACKGROUND: The Covid-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom has seen two waves; the first starting in March 2020 and the second in late October 2020. It is not known whether outcomes for those admitted with severe Covid were different in the first and second waves. METHODS: The study population comprised all patients admitted to a 1,500-bed London Hospital Trust between March 2020 and March 2021, who tested positive for Covid-19 by PCR within 3-days of admissions. Primary outcome was death within 28-days of admission. Socio-demographics (age, sex, ethnicity), hypertension, diabetes, obesity, baseline physiological observations, CRP, neutrophil, chest x-ray abnormality, remdesivir and dexamethasone were incorporated as co-variates. Proportional subhazards models compared mortality risk between wave 1 and wave 2. Cox-proportional hazard model with propensity score adjustment were used to compare mortality in patients prescribed remdesivir and dexamethasone. RESULTS: There were 3,949 COVID-19 admissions, 3,195 hospital discharges and 733 deaths. There were notable differences in age, ethnicity, comorbidities, and admission disease severity between wave 1 and wave 2. Twenty-eight-day mortality was higher during wave 1 (26.1% versus 13.1%). Mortality risk adjusted for co-variates was significantly lower in wave 2 compared to wave 1 [adjSHR 0.49 (0.37, 0.65) p<0.001]. Analysis of treatment impact did not show statistically different effects of remdesivir [HR 0.84 (95%CI 0.65, 1.08), p = 0.17] or dexamethasone [HR 0.97 (95%CI 0.70, 1.35) p = 0.87]. CONCLUSION: There has been substantial improvements in COVID-19 mortality in the second wave, even accounting for demographics, comorbidity, and disease severity. Neither dexamethasone nor remdesivir appeared to be key explanatory factors, although there may be unmeasured confounding present

El Niño, tropical Atlantic warmth, and Atlantic hurricanes over the past 1500 years

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 880-883, doi:10.1038/nature08219.Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here, we place recent activity in a longer-term context, by comparing two independent estimates of TC activity over the past 1500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate employs a previously published statistical model of Atlantic TC activity driven by proxy-reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic TC activity during Medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The Medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results in the statistical model from a ‘perfect storm’ of La Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.M.E.M. and Z.Z. acknowledge support from the ATM programme of the National Science Foundation (grant ATM-0542356). J.P.D. acknowledges support from the EAR and OCE programmes of the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-0519118 and OCE-0402746), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences, and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research

Holographic No-Boundary Measure

We show that the complex saddle points of the no-boundary wave function with a positive cosmological constant and a positive scalar potential have a representation in which the geometry consists of a regular Euclidean AdS domain wall that makes a smooth transition to a Lorentzian, inflationary universe that is asymptotically deSitter. The transition region between AdS and dS regulates the volume divergences of the AdS action and accounts for the phases that explain the classical behavior of the final configuration. This leads to a dual formulation in which the semiclassical no-boundary measure is given in terms of the partition function of field theories on the final boundary that are certain relevant deformations of the CFTs that occur in AdS/CFT. We conjecture that the resulting dS/CFT duality holds also beyond the leading order approximation.Comment: 35 pages, 6 figure