The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Feedbacks on Climate Sensitivity Estimates

A number of climate modeling studies have shown that differences between typical choices for representing ozone can affect climate change projections. Here, we investigate potential climate impacts of a specific ozone representation used in simulations of the HadGEM model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The method considers ozone changes only in the troposphere and lower stratosphere and prescribes stratospheric ozone elsewhere. For a standard climate sensitivity simulation, we find that this method leads to significantly increased global warming and specific patterns of regional surface warming compared with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry set-up. We explain this mainly by the suppressed part of the stratospheric ozone changes and the associated alteration of the stratospheric water vapor feedback. This combined effect is modulated by simultaneous cirrus cloud changes. We underline the need to understand better how representations of ozone can affect climate modeling results and, in particular, global and regional climate sensitivity estimates.European Research Council ACCI project (project number 267760

Stratospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering: Implications for UV exposure and air quality

Abstract. Various forms of geoengineering have been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Methods which aim to modify the Earth's energy balance by reducing insolation are often subsumed under the term solar radiation management (SRM). Here, we present results of a standard SRM modelling experiment in which the incoming solar irradiance is reduced to offset the global mean warming induced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For the first time in an atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, we include atmospheric composition feedbacks for this experiment. While the SRM scheme considered here could offset greenhouse gas induced global mean surface warming, it leads to important changes in atmospheric composition. We find large stratospheric ozone increases that induce significant reductions in surface UV-B irradiance, which would have implications for vitamin D production. In addition, the higher stratospheric ozone levels lead to decreased ozone photolysis in the troposphere. In combination with lower atmospheric specific humidity under SRM, this results in overall surface ozone concentration increases in the idealized G1 experiment. Both UV-B and surface ozone changes are important for human health. We therefore highlight that both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes must be considered in the assessment of any SRM scheme, due to their important roles in regulating UV exposure and air quality. We thank the European Research Council for funding through the ACCI project, project number 267760. In particular, we thank Jonathan M. Gregory (UK Met Office, University of Reading), Manoj M. Joshi (University of East Anglia) and Annette Osprey (University of Reading) for model development as part of the QUEST-ESM project supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under contract numbers RH/H10/19 and R8/H12/124. We acknowledge use of the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the UK Met Office and NERC. For plotting, we used Matplotlib, a 2-D graphics environment for the Python programming language developed by Hunter (2007). We are grateful for advice of P. Telford during the model development stage of this project and thank the UKCA team at the UK Met Office for help and support.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Copernicus Publications via http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4191-2016

An Improved Approximate Consensus Algorithm in the Presence of Mobile Faults

This paper explores the problem of reaching approximate consensus in synchronous point-to-point networks, where each pair of nodes is able to communicate with each other directly and reliably. We consider the mobile Byzantine fault model proposed by Garay '94 -- in the model, an omniscient adversary can corrupt up to $f$ nodes in each round, and at the beginning of each round, faults may "move" in the system (i.e., different sets of nodes may become faulty in different rounds). Recent work by Bonomi et al. '16 proposed a simple iterative approximate consensus algorithm which requires at least $4f+1$ nodes. This paper proposes a novel technique of using "confession" (a mechanism to allow others to ignore past behavior) and a variant of reliable broadcast to improve the fault-tolerance level. In particular, we present an approximate consensus algorithm that requires only $\lceil 7f/2\rceil + 1$ nodes, an $\lfloor f/2 \rfloor$ improvement over the state-of-the-art algorithms. Moreover, we also show that the proposed algorithm is optimal within a family of round-based algorithms

Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics

Future trends in Arctic springtime total column ozone, and its chemical and dynamical drivers, are assessed using a seven-member ensemble from the Met Office Unified Model with United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UM-UKCA) simulating the period 1960–2100. The Arctic mean March total column ozone increases throughout the 21st century at a rate of  ∼  11.5 DU decade⁻¹, and is projected to return to the 1980 level in the late 2030s. However, the integrations show that even past 2060 springtime Arctic ozone can episodically drop by  ∼  50–100 DU below the corresponding long-term ensemble mean for that period, reaching values characteristic of the near-present-day average level. Consistent with the global decline in inorganic chlorine (Clᵧ) over the century, the estimated mean halogen-induced chemical ozone loss in the Arctic lower atmosphere in spring decreases by around a factor of 2 between the periods 2001–2020 and 2061–2080. However, in the presence of a cold and strong polar vortex, elevated halogen-induced ozone losses well above the corresponding long-term mean continue to occur in the simulations into the second part of the century. The ensemble shows a significant cooling trend in the Arctic winter mid- and upper stratosphere, but there is less confidence in the projected temperature trends in the lower stratosphere (100–50 hPa). This is partly due to an increase in downwelling over the Arctic polar cap in winter, which increases transport of ozone into the polar region as well as drives adiabatic warming that partly offsets the radiatively driven stratospheric cooling. However, individual winters characterised by significantly suppressed downwelling, reduced transport and anomalously low temperatures continue to occur in the future. We conclude that, despite the projected long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, the large interannual dynamical variability is expected to continue in the future, thereby facilitating episodic reductions in springtime ozone columns. Whilst our results suggest that the relative role of dynamical processes for determining Arctic springtime ozone will increase in the future, halogen chemistry will remain a smaller but non-negligible contributor for many decades to come.We thank NCAS Computational Model Support for help with setting up and porting the model. We acknowledge the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. We acknowledge use of the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the UK Met Office and the NERC. Amanda C. Maycock, John A. Pyle and N. Luke Abraham were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, a NERC-funded research centre. We acknowledge funding from the ERC for the ACCI project (grant number 267760), including a PhD studentship for Ewa M. Bednarz. Amanda C. Maycock acknowledges support from an AXA postdoctoral fellowship and NERC grant NE/M018199/1

On the Changing Role of the Stratosphere on the Tropospheric Ozone Budget: 1979–2010

We study the evolution of tropospheric ozone over the period 1979-2010 using a chemistry-climate model employing a stratosphere-troposphere chemistry scheme. By running with specified dynamics, the key feedback of composition on meteorology is suppressed, isolating the chemical response. By using historical forcings and emissions, interactions between processes are realistically represented. We use the model to assess how the ozone responds over time and to investigate model responses and trends. We find that the CFC-driven decrease in stratospheric ozone plays a significant role in the tropospheric ozone burden. Over the period 1979-1994, the decline in transport of ozone from the stratosphere, partially offsets an emissions-driven increase in tropospheric ozone production. From 1994-2010, despite a levelling off in emissions increased stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone drives a small increase in the tropospheric ozone burden. These results have implications for the impact of future stratospheric ozone recovery on air quality and radiative forcing.European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme 10 (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 603557 (StratoClim)

Proximate determinants of fertility in Ethiopia: comparative analysis of the 2005 and 2011 DHS

Fertility is one of the elements in population dynamics that makes a significant contribution towards changing population size and structure over time. In Ethiopia, for the last 10 years the total fertility rate (TFR) has declined slightly from 5.5 to 4.8 children in 2011. But, the TFR in urban areas has increased from 2.4 to 2.6 per 1000 live births. The Bongaarts model was applied to estimate the indices of the four main proximate determinants of fertility. Bongaarts defines the TFR of a population as a function of the total fecundity rate (TF), index of marriage (Cm), index of contraception (Cc), index of postpartum infecundability (Ci), and index of abortion (Ca); this can be written as TFR = Cm × Cc × Ci × Ca × TF. In 2005, the index of married women in urban areas was lower than rural, but it was unfortunately the same in urban and rural areas in 2011. For the last decade, the index of postpartum infecundability had a great fertility reduction effect compared with the contraception index and marriage index in rural Ethiopia. The lower the four indices of proximate determinants, the more fertility will be reduced. As such, the Ethiopian government, international non-governmental organizations and policy-makers must pay attention to increase the prevalence of contraceptive use and educate society to fight against child marriage. Permanent contraceptive use, such as female sterilization, should be promoted; moreover, legal organizations and the community must work together to raise the legal age of marriage to 18 years.IS

Tackling Exascale Software Challenges in Molecular Dynamics Simulations with GROMACS

GROMACS is a widely used package for biomolecular simulation, and over the last two decades it has evolved from small-scale efficiency to advanced heterogeneous acceleration and multi-level parallelism targeting some of the largest supercomputers in the world. Here, we describe some of the ways we have been able to realize this through the use of parallelization on all levels, combined with a constant focus on absolute performance. Release 4.6 of GROMACS uses SIMD acceleration on a wide range of architectures, GPU offloading acceleration, and both OpenMP and MPI parallelism within and between nodes, respectively. The recent work on acceleration made it necessary to revisit the fundamental algorithms of molecular simulation, including the concept of neighborsearching, and we discuss the present and future challenges we see for exascale simulation - in particular a very fine-grained task parallelism. We also discuss the software management, code peer review and continuous integration testing required for a project of this complexity.Comment: EASC 2014 conference proceedin

A pilot telephone intervention to increase uptake of breast cancer screening in socially deprived areas in Scotland (TELBRECS):study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Breast cancer accounts for almost 30% of all cancers and is the second leading cause of cancer deaths in women in Scotland. Screening is key to early detection. The Scottish Breast Screening Programme is a nationwide, free at point of delivery screening service, to which all women aged between 50 and 70 years are invited to attend every 3 years. Currently over three-quarters of invited women regularly attend screening. However, women from more deprived areas are much less likely to attend: for example in the 3 years from 2010-2012 only 63% of women in the most deprived area attended the East of Scotland Breast Screening programme versus 81% in the least deprived. Research has suggested that reminders (telephone or letter) and brief, personalised interventions addressing barriers to attendance may be helpful in increasing uptake in low-income women. METHODS/DESIGN We will employ a brief telephone reminder and support intervention, whose purpose is to elicit and address any mistaken beliefs women have about breast screening, with the aim that the perceived benefits of screening come to outweigh any perceived barriers for individuals. We will test whether this intervention, plus a simple anticipated regret manipulation, will lead to an increase in the uptake of breast cancer screening amongst low-income women who have failed to attend a first appointment, in a randomised controlled trial with 600 women. Participants will be randomly allocated to one of four treatment arms i.e. 1) Letter reminder (i.e. Treatment as usual: CONTROL); 2) Telephone reminder (TEL), 3) Telephone reminder plus telephone support (TEL-SUPP) and 4) Telephone reminder plus support plus AR (TEL-SUPP-AR). The primary outcome will be attendance at breast screening within 3 months of the reminder letter. DISCUSSION If this simple telephone support intervention (with or without AR intervention) leads to a significant increase in breast screening attendance, this would represent a rare example of a theoretically-driven, relatively simple psychological intervention that could result in earlier detection of breast cancer amongst an under-served group of lower socio-economic women. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled trials: ISRCTN06039270. Registered 16th January 2014

Complex-Distance Potential Theory and Hyperbolic Equations

An extension of potential theory in R^n is obtained by continuing the Euclidean distance function holomorphically to C^n. The resulting Newtonian potential is generated by an extended source distribution D(z) in C^n whose restriction to R^n is the delta function. This provides a natural model for extended particles in physics. In C^n, interpreted as complex spacetime, D(z) acts as a propagator generating solutions of the wave equation from their initial values. This gives a new connection between elliptic and hyperbolic equations that does not assume analyticity of the Cauchy data. Generalized to Clifford analysis, it induces a similar connection between solutions of elliptic and hyperbolic Dirac equations. There is a natural application to the time-dependent, inhomogeneous Dirac and Maxwell equations, and the `electromagnetic wavelets' introduced previously are an example.Comment: 25 pages, submited to Proceedings of 5th Intern. Conf. on Clifford Algebras, Ixtapa, June 24 - July 4, 199

Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing

The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates using specially designed sensitivity simulations with the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol model) chemistry–climate model. We perform a number of idealised time-slice experiments under perpetual solar maximum (SMAX) and minimum conditions (SMIN), and we find that contributions from changes in direct heating and photolysis rates are both important for determining the stratospheric shortwave heating, temperature and ozone responses to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle. The combined effects of the processes are found to be largely additive in the tropics but nonadditive in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results indicate that, in contrast to the original mechanism proposed in the literature, the solar-induced changes in the horizontal shortwave heating rate gradients not only in autumn/early winter but throughout the dynamically active season are important for modulating the dynamical response to changes in solar forcing. In spring, these gradients are strongly influenced by the shortwave heating anomalies at higher southern latitudes, which are closely linked to the concurrent changes in ozone. In addition, our simulations indicate differences in the winter SH dynamical responses between the experiments. We suggest a couple of potential drivers of the simulated differences, i.e. the role of enhanced zonally asymmetric ozone heating brought about by the increased solar-induced ozone levels under SMAX and/or sensitivity of the polar dynamical response to the altitude of the anomalous radiative tendencies. All in all, our results suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone, both in the tropics/mid-latitudes and the polar regions, are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle. In addition, the markedly nonadditive character of the SH polar vortex response simulated in austral spring highlights the need for consistent model implementation of the solar cycle forcing in both the radiative heating and photolysis schemes