Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions operating in Spain during the last twenty-two years – generating almost twenty-three million bank loan records in total. Spanish monetary conditions were exogenously determined during the entire sample period. Using a variety of duration models we find that lower short-term interest rates prior to loan origination result in banks granting more risky new loans. Banks also soften their lending standards – they lend more to borrowers with a bad credit history and with high uncertainty. Lower interest rates, by contrast, reduce the credit risk of outstanding loans. Loan credit risk is maximized when both interest rates are very low prior to loan origination and interest rates are very high over the life of the loan. Our results suggest that low interest rates increase bank risk-taking, reduce credit risk in banks in the very short run but worsen it in the medium run. Risk-taking is not equal for all type of banks: Small banks, banks with fewer lending opportunities, banks with less sophisticated depositors, and savings or cooperative banks take on more extra risk than other banks when interest rates are lower. Higher GDP growth reduces credit risk on both new and outstanding loans, in stark contrast to the differential effects of monetary policy.monetary policy;low interest rates;financial stability;lending standards;credit risk;risk-taking;business cycle;bank organization;duration analysis

Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy:What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions operating in Spain during the last twenty-two years – generating almost twenty-three million bank loan records in total. Spanish monetary conditions were exogenously determined during the entire sample period. Using a variety of duration models we find that lower short-term interest rates prior to loan origination result in banks granting more risky new loans. Banks also soften their lending standards – they lend more to borrowers with a bad credit history and with high uncertainty. Lower interest rates, by contrast, reduce the credit risk of outstanding loans. Loan credit risk is maximized when both interest rates are very low prior to loan origination and interest rates are very high over the life of the loan. Our results suggest that low interest rates increase bank risk-taking, reduce credit risk in banks in the very short run but worsen it in the medium run. Risk-taking is not equal for all type of banks: Small banks, banks with fewer lending opportunities, banks with less sophisticated depositors, and savings or cooperative banks take on more extra risk than other banks when interest rates are lower. Higher GDP growth reduces credit risk on both new and outstanding loans, in stark contrast to the differential effects of monetary policy.

Appearance and Maturation of T-Cell Subsets During Rat Thymus Ontogeny

In previous papers, we have described the ontogenetical development of thymic stromal-cell components (epithelium, macrophages, dendritic cells) of Wistar rats. Here, we correlate those results with the maturation of rat T-cell precursors along the fetal and postnatal life. First T-cell precursors, which colonize the thymus anlage around days 13-14 of gestation, largely express CD45, CD43, CD53, and Thy 1 cell markers, and in a lesser proportion the OX22 antigen. Rat CD3-CD4-CD8- thymocytes present in the earliest stages of gestation could be subdivided in three major cell subpopulations according to the CD44 and CD25 expression: CD44-/+CD25- → CD44+CD25+ → CD44+CD25- On fetal days 17-18, a certain proportion of CD4-CD8-cells weakly,express the TcRβ chain, in correlation with the appearance of the first immature CD4-CD8+ thymocytes. This cell subpopulation, in progress to the CD4+CD8+ stage, upregulates CD8α before the CD8β chain, expresses the CD53 antigen, and exhibits a high proliferative rate. First mature thymocytes arising from the DP (CD4+CD8+) cells appear on fetal days 20-21. Then, the CD4+:CD8+ cell ratio is ≤1 changing to adult values (2-3) just after birth. Also, the percentage of VβTcR repertoire covered in adult thymus is reached during the postnatal period, being lower during the fetal life. Finally, in correlation with the beginning of thymocyte emigration to the periphery a new wave of T-cell maturation apparently occurs in the perinatal rat thymus

Environmentally Tuning Asphalt Pavements Using Phase Change Materials

Environmental conditions are considered an important factor influencing asphalt pavement performance. The addition of modifiers, both to the asphalt binder and the asphalt mixture, has attracted considerable attention in potentially alleviating environmentally induced pavement performance issues. Although many solutions have been developed, and some deployed, many asphalt pavements continue to prematurely fail due to environmental loading. The research reported herein investigates the synthetization and characterization of biobased Phase Change Materials (PCMs) and inclusion of Microencapsulated PCM (μPCM) in asphalt binders and mixtures to help reduce environmental damage to asphalt pavements. In general, PCM substances are formulated to absorb and release thermal energy as the material liquify and solidify, depending on pavement temperature. As a result, PCMs can provide asphalt pavements with thermal energy storage capacities to reduce the impacts of drastic ambient temperature scenarios and minimize the appearance of critical temperatures within the pavement structure. By modifying asphalt pavement materials with PCMs, it may be possible to tune the pavement to the environment

The dynamic interplay between students and staff in enhancing inclusion in higher education in Latin America

This paper presents findings from the ENTENDER Erasmus+ Capacity Building in Higher Education (CBHE) project (funded by the European Union Commission) involving five Latin American (LA) universities in Argentina and Mexico and threeEuropean partner universities. The project aimed to raise awareness of neurodiversity, create processes and tools to identify neurodivergent students’ learning needs and promote teacher training to design and provide inclusive learning environments. A collaborative cocreation approach was implemented. All elements of the project were evaluated against a baseline via a needs analysis. We discuss the initial challenges, the gains, and the unexpected outcomes that have propelled neurodiversity to the top of the agenda in the partner institutions initiating a change in attitudes from a deficit model to a strengths-based focus.Keywords: Autistic advantage. Strengths based. Higher education. Inclus

The Effect of Exercise Intensity on Postprandial Blood Lipids in Physically-Inactive Men

Download PD

A Census of Star-Forming Galaxies in the z~9-10 Universe based on HST+Spitzer Observations Over 19 CLASH clusters: Three Candidate z~9-10 Galaxies and Improved Constraints on the Star Formation Rate Density at z~9

We utilise a two-color Lyman-Break selection criterion to search for z~9-10 galaxies over the first 19 clusters in the CLASH program. A systematic search yields three z~9-10 candidates. While we have already reported the most robust of these candidates, MACS1149-JD, two additional z~9 candidates are also found and have H_{160}-band magnitudes of ~26.2-26.9. A careful assessment of various sources of contamination suggests <~1 contaminants for our z~9-10 selection. To determine the implications of these search results for the LF and SFR density at z~9, we introduce a new differential approach to deriving these quantities in lensing fields. Our procedure is to derive the evolution by comparing the number of z~9-10 galaxy candidates found in CLASH with the number of galaxies in a slightly lower redshift sample (after correcting for the differences in selection volumes), here taken to be z~8. This procedure takes advantage of the fact that the relative volumes available for the z~8 and z~9-10 selections behind lensing clusters are not greatly dependent on the details of the lensing models. We find that the normalization of the UV LF at z~9 is just 0.28_{-0.20}^{+0.39}\times that at z~8, ~1.4_{-0.8}^{+3.0}x lower than extrapolating z~4-8 LF results. While consistent with the evolution in the UV LF seen at z~4-8, these results marginally favor a more rapid evolution at z>8. Compared to similar evolutionary findings from the HUDF, our result is less insensitive to large-scale structure uncertainties, given our many independent sightlines on the high-redshift universe.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal, updated to include the much deeper Spitzer/IRAC observations over our three z~9-10 candidate

Towards an online-coupled chemistry-climate model: evaluation of trace gases and aerosols in COSMO-ART

Peer reviewe

Comparative Outcomes of Lung Volume Reduction Surgery and Lung Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Lung volume reduction (LVR) and lung transplantation (LTx) have been used in different populations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. To date, comparative study of LVR and LTx has not been performed. We sought to address this gap by pooling the existing evidence in the literature. Methods: An electronic search was performed to identify all prospective studies on LVR and LTx published since 2000. Baseline characteristics, perioperative variables, and clinical outcomes were extracted and pooled for meta-analysis. Results: The analysis included 65 prospective studies comprising 3,671 patients [LTx: 15 studies (n=1,445), LVR: 50 studies (n=2,226)]. Mean age was 60 [95% confidence interval (CI): 58–62] years and comparable between the two groups. Females were 51% (95% CI: 30–71%) in the LTx group vs. 28% (95% CI: 21–36%) in LVR group (P=0.05). Baseline 6-minute walk test (6MWT) and pulmonary function tests were comparable except for the forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), which was lower in the LTx group [21.8% (95% CI: 16.8–26.7%) vs. 27.3% (95% CI: 25.5–29.2%), P=0.04]. Postoperatively, both groups experienced improved FEV1, however post-LTx FEV1 was significantly higher than post-LVR FEV1 [54.9% (95% CI: 41.4–68.4%) vs. 32.5% (95% CI: 30.1–34.8%), P\u3c0.01]. 6MWT was also improved after both procedures [LTx: 212.9 (95% CI: 119.0–306.9) to 454.4 m (95% CI: 334.7–574.2), P\u3c0.01; LVR: 286 (95% CI: 270.2–301.9) to 409.1 m (95% CI: 392.1–426.0), P\u3c0.01], however, with no significant difference between the groups. Pooled survival over time showed no significant difference between the groups. Conclusions: LTx results in better FEV1 but otherwise has comparable outcomes to LVR