A unified explanation of variability and bias in human probability judgments : how computational noise explains the mean-variance signature

Human probability judgments are both variable and subject to systematic biases. Most probability judgment models treat variability and bias separately: a deterministic model explains the origin of bias, to which a noise process is added to generate variability. But these accounts do not explain the characteristic inverse U-shaped signature linking mean and variance in probability judgments. By contrast, models based on sampling generate the mean and variance of judgments in a unified way: the variability in the response is an inevitable consequence of basing probability judgments on a small sample of remembered or simulated instances of events. We consider two recent sampling models, in which biases are explained either by the sample accumulation being further corrupted by retrieval noise (the Probability Theory + Noise account) or as a Bayesian adjustment to the uncertainty implicit in small samples (the Bayesian sampler). While the mean predictions of these accounts closely mimic one another, they differ regarding the predicted relationship between mean and variance. We show that these models can be distinguished by a novel linear regression method that analyses this crucial mean–variance signature. First, the efficacy of the method is established using model recovery, demonstrating that it more accurately recovers parameters than complex approaches. Second, the method is applied to the mean and variance of both existing and new probability judgment data, confirming that judgments are based on a small number of samples that are adjusted by a prior, as predicted by the Bayesian sampler

Atherogenic index of plasma is associated with the severity of Hidradenitis Suppurativa: a case-control study

Background: Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a chronic inflammatory disease associated with several comorbidities and vascular risk factors, such as dyslipidemia. The present study aimed to assess the possible associations between the lipid profile and atherogenic indexes and the severity of HS. Methods: This case-control study enrolled 78 HS patients and 62 healthy controls. Classic lipid profile and lipoprotein ratios, including the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), were evaluated. The severity of HS was measured by the HS Physician Global Assessment (PGA). Results: HS-patients had lower serum total cholesterol and HDL-C levels and higher AIP than the control group. AIP was positively correlated to BMI, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, LDL-C, triglycerides, non-HDL-C, ApoB, HOMA, and hs-CRP and negatively to HDL-C and ApoA1. For the overall lipid profile, only AIP was related to a more severe HS (PGA ? 3) after controlling for age, sex, BMI, insulin resistance (IR), active smoking, and statin use (r = 0.268; p = 0.023). Multiple logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, BMI, IR, smoking status and statin use, showed that AIP ? 0.11 was significantly associated with the severity of HS (OR, 4.38; CI 95%, 1.09-17.50; p = 0.037). Conclusions: In conclusion, these results showed that AIP is significantly and independently associated with HS severity

Prevalence and severity of cardiac abnormalities and arteriosclerosis in farmed rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Cardiovascular disease may pose a major threat to the health and welfare of farmed fish. By investigating a range of established cardiovascular disease indicators, we aimed to determine the prevalence, severity and consequences of this affliction in farmed rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from an open cage farm in the Baltic Sea, an open cage farm in a freshwater lake, and a land-based recirculating aquaculture system. We also aimed to identify environmental, anthropogenic and physiological factors contributing towards the development of the disease. The majority of trout possessed enlarged hearts with rounded ventricles (mean height:width ratios of 1.0-1.1 c.f. similar to 1.3 in wild fish) and a high degree of vessel misalignment (mean angles between the longitudinal ventricular axis and the axis of the bulbus arteriosus of 28-31 degrees c.f. similar to 23 degrees in wild fish). The prevalence and severity of coronary arteriosclerosis was also high, as 92-100% of fish from the different aquaculture facilities exhibited coronary lesions. Mean lesion incidence and severity indices were 67-95% and 3.1-3.9, respectively, which resulted in mean coronary arterial blockages of 19-32%. To evaluate the functional significance of these findings, we modelled the effects of arterial blockages on coronary blood flow and experimentally tested the effects of coronary occlusion in a sub-sample of fish. The observed coronary blockages were estimated to reduce coronary blood flow by 34-54% while experimental coronary occlusion adversely affected the electrocardiogram of trout. Across a range of environmental (water current, predation), anthropogenic (boat traffic intensity, hatchery of origin, brand of feed pellets) and physiological factors (condition factor, haematological and plasma indices), the hatchery of origin was the main factor contributing towards the observed variation in the development of cardiovascular disease. Therefore, further research on the effects of selective breeding programs and rearing strategies on the development of cardiovascular disease is needed to improve the welfare and health of farmed fish

Ebullition of methane from peatlands: Does peat act as a signal shredder?

Bubbling (ebullition) of greenhouse gases, particularly methane, from peatlands has been attributed to environmental forcings, such as changes in atmospheric pressure. However, observations from peat soils suggest that ebullition and environmental forcing may not always be correlated and that interactions between bubbles and the peat structure may be the cause of such decoupling. To investigate this possibility, we used a simple computer model (Model of Ebullition and Gas storAge) to simulate methane ebullition from a model peat. We found that lower porosity peat can store methane bubbles for lengthy periods of time, effectively buffering or moderating ebullition so that it no longer reflects bubble production signals. Our results suggest that peat structure may act as a “signal shredder” and needs to be taken into account when measuring and modeling ebullition

Immunohistochemical localization of phosphohistidine phosphatase PHPT1 in mouse and human tissues

Protein histidine phosphorylation accounts for about 6% of the total protein phosphorylation in eukaryotic cells; still details concerning histidine phosphorylation and dephosphorylation are limited. A mammalian 14-kDa phosphohistidine phosphatase, also denominated PHPT1, was found 6 years ago that provided a new tool in the study of phosphohistidine phosphorylation. The localization of PHPT1 mRNA by Northern blot analysis revealed high expression in heart and skeletal muscle. The main object of the present study was to determine the PHPT1 expression on protein level in mouse tissues in order to get further information on the physiological role of the enzyme. Tissue samples from adult mice and 14.5-day-old mouse embryos were processed for immunostaining using a PHPT1-specific polyclonal antibody. The same antibody was also provided to the Swedish human protein atlas project (HPR) (http://www.proteinatlas.org/index.php). The results from both studies were essentially consistent with the previously reported expression of mRNA of a few human tissues. In addition, several other tissues, including testis, displayed a high protein expression. A salient result of the present investigation was the ubiquitous expression of the PHPT1 protein and its high expression in continuously dividing epithelial cells

Multi-component assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an evaluation of the ADO and DOSE indices and the global obstructive lung disease categories in international primary care data sets

Acknowledgements We thank Sian Williams of the International Primary Care Respiratory Group for her help and encouragement with the project. The OPCRD database was made available courtesy of the Respiratory Effectiveness Group and RIRL and the data were kindly prepared for analysis by Julie von Ziegenweidt. Funding The International Primary Care Respiratory Group (IPCRG) provided funding for this research project as an UNLOCK group study for which the funding was obtained through an unrestricted grant by Novartis AG, Basel, Switzerland. The latter funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Database access for the OPCRD was provided by the Respiratory Effectiveness Group (REG) and Research in Real Life; the OPCRD statistical analysis was funded by REG. The Bocholtz Study was funded by PICASSO for COPD, an initiative of Boehringer Ingelheim, Pfizer and the Caphri Research Institute, Maastricht University, The Netherlands.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Update of the list of qualified presumption of safety (QPS) recommended microorganisms intentionally added to food or feed as notified to EFSA

The qualified presumption of safety (QPS) provides a generic pre-assessment of the safety ofmicroorganisms intended for use in the food or feed chains, to support the work of EFSA’s ScientificPanels. QPS assessment allows a fast track evaluation of strains belonging to QPS taxonomic units(TUs): species for bacteria, yeast, fungi, protists/microalgae and families for viruses. QPS TUs areassessed for their body of knowledge and safety. Safety concerns related to a QPS TU are reflected,when possible, as‘qualifications’, which should be tested at strain and/or product level. Based on thepossession of potentially harmful traits by some strains,filamentous fungi, bacteriophages, oomycetes,streptomycetes,Enterococcus faecium,Escherichia coliandClostridium butyricumare excluded fromthe QPS assessment.Between October 2019 and September 2022, 323 notifications of TUs werereceived, 217 related to feed additives, 54 to food enzymes, food additives andflavourings, 14 to plantprotection products and 38 to novel foods. The list of QPS-recommended TUs is reviewed every6 months following an extensive literature search strategy. Only sporadic infections with a few QPSstatus TUs in immunosuppressed individuals were identified and the assessment did not change theQPS status of these TUs. The QPS list has been updated in relation to the most recent taxonomicinsights and the qualifications were revised and streamlined. The qualification‘absence ofaminoglycoside production ability’was withdrawn forBacillus velezensis. Six new TUs received the QPSstatus:Bacillus paralicheniformiswith the qualification‘absence of toxigenic activity’and‘absence ofbacitracin production ability’;Bacillus circulanswith the qualifications for‘production purposes only’and‘absence of cytotoxic activity’;Haematococcus lacustris(synonymHaematococcus pluvialis) andOgataea polymorpha, both with the qualification‘for production purposes only’;Lactiplantibacillusargentoratensis;Geobacillus thermodenitrificanswith the qualification‘absence of toxigenic activity