Review: to be or not to be an identifiable model. Is this a relevant question in animal science modelling?

International audienceWhat is a good (useful) mathematical model in animal science? For models constructed for prediction purposes, the question of model adequacy (usefulness) has been traditionally tackled by statistical analysis applied to observed experimental data relative to model-predicted variables. However, little attention has been paid to analytic tools that exploit the mathematical properties of the model equations. For example, in the context of model calibration, before attempting a numerical estimation of the model parameters, we might want to know if we have any chance of success in estimating a unique best value of the model parameters from available measurements. This question of uniqueness is referred to as structural identifiability; a mathematical property that is defined on the sole basis of the model structure within a hypothetical ideal experiment determined by a setting of model inputs (stimuli) and observable variables (measurements). Structural identifiability analysis applied to dynamic models described by ordinary differential equations (ODE) is a common practice in control engineering and system identification. This analysis demands mathematical technicalities that are beyond the academic background of animal science, which might explain the lack of pervasiveness of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling. To fill this gap, in this paper we address the analysis of structural identifiability from a practitioner perspective by capitalizing on the use of dedicated software tools. Our objectives are (i) to provide a comprehensive explanation of the structural identifiability notion for the community of animal science modelling, (ii) to assess the relevance of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling and (iii) to motivate the community to use identifiability analysis in the modelling practice (when the identifiability question is relevant). We focus our study on ODE models. By using illustrative examples that include published mathematical models describing lactation in cattle, we show how structural identifiability analysis can contribute to advancing mathematical modelling in animal science towards the production of useful models and highly informative experiments. Rather than attempting to impose a systematic identifiability analysis to the modelling community during model developments, we wish to open a window towards the discovery of a powerful tool for model construction and experiment design

Beginning of the End of Cost Competitiveness in CEE Countries - Analysis of Dependence between Labor Costs and Internationalization of the Region

In order to exemplify the above econometric model I carried out empirical analysis of the companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, identifying the companies for which efficiency-seeking is the main internationalization motive. The analysis of internationalization of 26 companies during the years 1990-2010 clearly shows that a significant part of investments is located outside the territory of Poland, in the countries with lower labor costs. This fact confirms that CEE countries will gradually become less and less attractive in terms of costs not only for MNEs from developed countries but also for the companies originating from transition economies.Głównym celem artykułu jest weryfikacja, czy niski poziom kosztów pracy w Europie Środkowej i Wschodniej będący do tej pory jednym z czynników wpływających na konkurencyjność tego regionu pozostanie nim w dłuższej perspektywie czasowej. W pracy na podstawie próby wszystkich państw UE zbadano zależność pomiędzy poziomem internacjonalizacji (stan odpływu BIZ per capita) a kosztami pracy w sektorze przedsiębiorstw i GNP per capita. Analiza regresji potwierdziła istnienie zależności pomiędzy wyżej wymienionymi czynnikami. Oznacza to, że stopniowy wzrost kosztów pracy w państwach Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej prowadził będzie do stopniowego odpływu BIZ z tego regionu do państw bardziej konkurencyjnych kosztowo. W celu egzemplifikacji powyższych zależności w pracy dodatkowo przedstawiono analizę inwestycji zagranicznych polskich spółek notowanych na GPW, z których to 26 dokonało inwwestycji zagranicznych o wyraźnych motywach związanych z obniżeniem kosztów produkcji. Fakt ten potwierdza powolny spadek konkurencyjności kosztowej polskiej gospodarki, tym samym zmusza do poszukiwania nowych rozwiązań instytucjonalnych mogących utrzymać konkurencyjność polskiej gospodarki w długim okresie

The Future of International Investment Regulation: Towards a World Investment Organisation?

With growth in foreign investment and in the number of companies investing in foreign countries, the application of general principles of public international law has not been deemed adequate to regulate foreign investment and there is, as yet, no comprehensive international treaty on the regulation of foreign investment. Consequently, states have resorted to bilateral investment treaties (BITs), regional trade and international investment agreements (IIAs) and free trade agreements (FTAs) to supplement and complement the regime of protection for foreign investors. In the absence of an international investment court, states hosting foreign investment or investor states have opted for investor-state dispute settlement mechanism (ISDS). This mechanism has brought about its own challenges to the international law of foreign investment due to inconsistency in the application and interpretation of the key principles of international investment law by such arbitration tribunals, and further, there is no appellate mechanism to bring about some cohesion and consistency in jurisprudence. Therefore, there are various proposals mooted by scholars to address these challenges and they range from tweaks to BITs and IIAs, the creation of an appellate mechanism and the negotiation of a multilateral treaty to proposals for reform of ISDS only. After assessing the merits and demerits of such proposals, this study goes further, arguing for the creation of a World Investment Organisation (WIO) with a standing mechanism for settlement of investment disputes in order to ensure legal certainty, predictability and the promotion of the flow of foreign investment in a sustainable and responsible manner