An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade

The traditional gravity model has been applied many times to international trade flows, especially in order to analyze trade creation and trade diversion. However, there are two fundamental objections to the model: it cannot describe substitutions between flows and it lacks a cogent theoretical foundation. A newly developed model, the Extended Gravity Model (EGM), overcomes these objections. The model shares characteristics of the models of Bergstrand (1985), Andersen and Van Wincoop (2003), and Redding and Scott (2003). An empirical test on a world-wide sample of 19 thousand 2005 trade flows strongly rejects the gravity model in favour of the EGM. The empirical analysis also shows that the gravity model widely overestimates the influence of the determinants of international trade, which is due to strong substitution between trade flows, reducing the initial (gravity model) effects. Substitution determines both trade creation and trade diversion. The EGM encompasses several models originating in regional economics and can be applied usefully to a wide set of subjects.bilateral trade, imports, exports, spatial allocation, trade creation, trade diversion, distance, market access, supplier access, multilateral resistance terms, remoteness indices

Investment risk taking by institutional investors

This paper is the first that formally compares investment risk taking by pension funds and insurance firms. Using a unique and extended dataset that covers the volatile investment period 1995-2009, we find that, in the Netherlands, insurers take substantially less investment risk than pension funds, even though a market risk capital charge for insurers is yet absent. This result can be explained from financial distress costs, which only insurers face. We also find that institutional investors' risk taking is determined by their risk bearing capacity, where this risk bearing capacity depends on capital, size, reinsurance, underwriting risk and human and financial wealth per pension plan participant. Finally, and in line with the ownership structure hypothesis, stock insurers are found to take significantly more investment risk than mutual insurers.Portfolio Choice, Insurance Companies, Pension Funds, Ownership Structure

Measuring and explaining competition in the financial sector

The first part of this paper provides a systematic discussion of the structural problems of competition on financial markets as observed from the demand and from the supply side, using a diagnostic framework. Potential impediments to competition are concentration, entry barriers, lack of transparency, product complexity, switching and search costs, financial illiteracy, lack of consumer power and weak intermediaries. In response to such financial market failures, we suggest a number of possible policy reactions. The second part of the paper investigates ways to measure competition and provides empirical figures on banking competition in 101 separate countries and assesses the market structure as monopolistic (or a perfect cartel), perfectly competitive or monopolistic competitive. Also, banking competition is explained, using explanatory variables of market structure, contestability, inter-industry competition, and institutional and macro economic conditions. This analysis provides possible instruments for reform in order to help promote competition. Next, the impact of banking consolidation is examined. Finally, developments in competition are observed over time, generally pointing to a downward trend.competition, concentration, entry barriers, transparency, consolidation, contestability, institutional conditions, restrictions on activities or investment, regulation, Panzar-Rosse model.

Market impact costs of institutional equity trades

This paper is the first to analyze market impact and execution costs of equity trading by a pension fund. We find that, on average, these costs are nonnegligible. Average market impact costs equal 20 basis points for buys and 30 basis points for sells; average execution costs equal 27 basis points and 38 basis points, respectively. Furthermore, we show that relative trade size and market capitalization, commonly found to play an important role, have only limited influence on the market impact of a trade. The most important determinants of the price effect are momentum, stock price volatility, investment style, trade type (agency, single, or principal), and trading venue

Pension fund sophistication and investment policy

This paper assesses the sophistication of pension funds' investment policies using data on 748 Dutch pension funds during the 1999.2006 period. We develop three indicators of sophistication: gross rounding of investment choices, investments in alternative sophisticated asset classes and 'home bias'. We find that pension funds' strategic portfolio choices are often based on coarse and possibly less sophisticated approaches. Most pension funds, particularly the medium-sized and smaller ones, round strategic asset allocations to the nearest multiple of 5%, similar to age heaping in demographic and historical studies. Second, many pension funds invest little or nothing in alternative asset classes besides equities and bonds, resulting in limited asset diversification. Third, medium-sized and smaller pension funds favor regional investments and as such not fully employ the opportunities of international diversification. Finally, we show that pension funds using less sophisticated asset allocation rules tend to opt for investment strategies with a lower risk-return profile.Pension funds, investment policy, portfolio choice, gross rounding, heaping, diversification, home bias, alternative investments, behavioral finance.

Trends in Competition and Profitability in the Banking Industry: A Basic Framework

This paper brings to the forefront the assumptions that we make when focusing on a particular type of explanation for bank profitability. We evaluate a broad field of research by introducing a general framework for a profit maximizing bank and demonstrate how different types of models can be fitted into this framework. Next, we present an overview of the current major trends in European banking and relate them to each model’s assumptions, thereby shedding light on the relevance, timeliness and shelf life of the different models. This way, we arrive at a set of recommendations for a future research agenda. We advocate a more prominent role for output prices, and suggest a modification of the intermediation approach. We also suggest ways to more clearly distinguish between market power and efficiency, and explain why we need time-dependent models. Finally, we propose the application of existing models to different size classes and sub-markets. Throughout we emphasize the benefits from applying several, complementary models to overcome the identification problems that we observe in individual models.

Cheap versus expensive trades: Assessing the determinants of market impact costs

This paper assesses the determinants of market impact costs of institutional equity trades, using unique data from the world's second largest pension fund. We allow the impact of trade characteristics and market conditions on trading costs to depend on the level of trading costs itself and establish significant differences in the responses of cheaper and more expensive trades. We explain the distinct responses from differences in information content and demand for liquidity between trades with high and low trading costs. Finally, to illustrate the practical relevance of the approach, we use our method to forecast future trading costs

Growth Rates Preservation (GRP) temporal benchmarking: Drawbacks and alternative solutions

Benchmarking monthly or quarterly series to annual data is a common practice in many National Statistical Institutes. The benchmarking problem arises when time series data for the same target variable are measured at different frequencies and there is a need to remove discrepancies between the sums of the sub-annual values and their annual benchmarks. Several benchmarking methods are available in the literature. The Growth Rates Preservation (GRP) benchmarking procedure is often considered the best method. It is often claimed that this procedure is grounded on an ideal movement preservation principle. However, we show that there are important drawbacks to GRP, relevant for practical applications, that are unknown in the literature. Alternative benchmarking models will be considered that do not suffer from some of GRP\u2019s side effects

Assessing Competition with the Panzar-Rosse Model: The Role of Scale, Costs, and Equilibrium

The Panzar-Rosse test has been widely applied to assess competitive conduct, often in specifcations controlling for firm scale or using a price equation. We show that neither a price equation nor a scaled revenue function yields a valid measure for competitive conduct. Moreover, even an unscaled revenue function generally requires additional information about costs and market equilibrium. Our theoretical findings are confirmed by an empirical analysis of competition in banking, using a sample covering more than 110,000 bank-year observations on almost 18,000 banks in 67 countries during 1986-2004.Panzar-Rosse test, competition, firm size

Real Pension Rights as a Control Mechanism for Pension Fund Solvency

This paper models policy responses to changes in solvency by Dutch occupational pension funds using a unique panel dataset containing the balance sheets of all registered pension funds in the Netherlands over a period of 15 years (1993-2007). The model describes how nominal pension rights are expanded, by e.g. indexation or backservice, or, on the contrary, how the current pension accumulation is skimmed, e.g. by setting the pension premium over its actuarially fair price to build buffers. Policy responses are explained by the funding ratio and other pension fund characteristics such as pension funds' size and type, and participants' ages. We find that pension rights are expanded in line with the funding ratio, but that the pension funds' response function exhibits two sharp and significant behavioural breaks, close to the minimum funding ratio of 105% and the target ratio of around 125%. These levels also play a pivotal role in current supervisory regulation. We further find that large pension funds and grey funds are relatively generous to participants.pension funds, pension rights, risk sharing instruments, indexation, funding ratio, solvability, regime shifts.