Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model: Application to the French manufacturing sector.

The aim of this paper is to build and estimate a macroeconomic model of credit risk for the French manufacturing sector. This model is based on Wilson's CreditPortfolioView model (1997a, 1997b); it enables us to simulate loss distributions for a credit portfolio for several macroeconomic scenarios. We implement two simulation procedures based on two assumptions relative to probabilities of default (PDs): in the first procedure, firms are assumed to have identical default probabilities; in the second, individual risk is taken into account. The empirical results indicate that these simulation procedures lead to quite different loss distributions. For instance, a negative one standard deviation shock on output leads to a maximum loss of 3.07% of the financial debt of the French manufacturing sector, with a probability of 99%, under the identical default probability hypothesis versus 2.61% with individual default probabilities.macro stress test ; credit risk model ; loss distribution.

Bias for consonantal information over vocalic information in 30-month-olds: cross-linguistic evidence from French and English.

Using a name-based categorization task, Nazzi found in 2005 that French-learning 20-month-olds can make use of one-feature consonantal contrasts between new labels but fail to do so with one-feature vocalic contrasts. This asymmetry was interpreted as developmental evidence for the proposal that consonants play a more important role than vowels at the lexical level. In the current study using the same task, we first show that by 30 months French-learning infants can make use of one-feature vocalic contrasts (e.g., /pize/-/pyze/). Second, we show that in a situation where infants must neglect either a consonantal one-feature change or a vocalic one-feature change (e.g., match a /pide/ with either a /tide/ or a /pyde/), both French- and English-learning 30-month-olds choose to neglect the vocalic change rather than the consonantal change. We argue that these results suggest that by 30 months of age, infants still give less weight to vocalic information than to consonantal information in a lexically related task even though they are able to process fine vocalic information

Tectonic controls on the long-term carbon isotope mass balance

The long-term, steady-state marine carbon isotope record reflects changes to the proportional burial rate of organic carbon relative to total carbon on a global scale. For this reason, times of high δ¹³C are conventionally interpreted to be oxygenation events caused by excess organic burial. Here we show that the carbon isotope mass balance is also significantly affected by tectonic uplift and erosion via changes to the inorganic carbon cycle that are independent of changes to the isotopic composition of carbon input. This view is supported by inverse co-variance between δ¹³C and a range of uplift proxies, including seawater⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, that demonstrates how erosional forcing of carbonate weathering outweighs that of organic burial on geological time scales. A model of the long-term carbon cycle shows that increases in δ¹³C need not be associated with increased organic burial and that alternative tectonic drivers (erosion, outgassing) provide testable and plausible explanations for sustained deviations from the long-term δ¹³C mean. Our approach emphasizes the commonly overlooked difference between how net and gross carbon fluxes affect the long-term carbon isotope mass balance, and may lead to reassessment of the role that the δ¹³C record plays in reconstructing the oxygenation of Earth’s surface environment

Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada) and had two objectives: (i) to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii) to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC). To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed

Comparison of established and emerging biodosimetry assays

Rapid biodosimetry tools are required to assist with triage in the case of a large-scale radiation incident. Here, we aimed to determine the dose-assessment accuracy of the well-established dicentric chromosome assay (DCA) and cytokinesis-block micronucleus assay (CBMN) in comparison to the emerging γ-H2AX foci and gene expression assays for triage mode biodosimetry and radiation injury assessment. Coded blood samples exposed to 10 X-ray doses (240 kVp, 1 Gy/min) of up to 6.4 Gy were sent to participants for dose estimation. Report times were documented for each laboratory and assay. The mean absolute difference (MAD) of estimated doses relative to the true doses was calculated. We also merged doses into binary dose categories of clinical relevance and examined accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the assays. Dose estimates were reported by the first laboratories within 0.3-0.4 days of receipt of samples for the γ-H2AX and gene expression assays compared to 2.4 and 4 days for the DCA and CBMN assays, respectively. Irrespective of the assay we found a 2.5-4-fold variation of interlaboratory accuracy per assay and lowest MAD values for the DCA assay (0.16 Gy) followed by CBMN (0.34 Gy), gene expression (0.34 Gy) and γ-H2AX (0.45 Gy) foci assay. Binary categories of dose estimates could be discriminated with equal efficiency for all assays, but at doses ≥1.5 Gy a 10% decrease in efficiency was observed for the foci assay, which was still comparable to the CBMN assay. In conclusion, the DCA has been confirmed as the gold standard biodosimetry method, but in situations where speed and throughput are more important than ultimate accuracy, the emerging rapid molecular assays have the potential to become useful triage tools

Spatial heterogeneity promotes coexistence of rock-paper-scissor metacommunities

The rock-paper-scissor game -- which is characterized by three strategies R,P,S, satisfying the non-transitive relations S excludes P, P excludes R, and R excludes S -- serves as a simple prototype for studying more complex non-transitive systems. For well-mixed systems where interactions result in fitness reductions of the losers exceeding fitness gains of the winners, classical theory predicts that two strategies go extinct. The effects of spatial heterogeneity and dispersal rates on this outcome are analyzed using a general framework for evolutionary games in patchy landscapes. The analysis reveals that coexistence is determined by the rates at which dominant strategies invade a landscape occupied by the subordinate strategy (e.g. rock invades a landscape occupied by scissors) and the rates at which subordinate strategies get excluded in a landscape occupied by the dominant strategy (e.g. scissor gets excluded in a landscape occupied by rock). These invasion and exclusion rates correspond to eigenvalues of the linearized dynamics near single strategy equilibria. Coexistence occurs when the product of the invasion rates exceeds the product of the exclusion rates. Provided there is sufficient spatial variation in payoffs, the analysis identifies a critical dispersal rate $d^*$ required for regional persistence. For dispersal rates below $d^*$, the product of the invasion rates exceed the product of the exclusion rates and the rock-paper-scissor metacommunities persist regionally despite being extinction prone locally. For dispersal rates above $d^*$, the product of the exclusion rates exceed the product of the invasion rates and the strategies are extinction prone. These results highlight the delicate interplay between spatial heterogeneity and dispersal in mediating long-term outcomes for evolutionary games.Comment: 31pages, 5 figure

Alpha-particle-induced complex chromosome exchanges transmitted through extra-thymic lymphopoiesis in vitro show evidence of emerging genomic instability

Human exposure to high-linear energy transfer α-particles includes environmental (e.g. radon gas and its decay progeny), medical (e.g. radiopharmaceuticals) and occupational (nuclear industry) sources. The associated health risks of α-particle exposure for lung cancer are well documented however the risk estimates for leukaemia remain uncertain. To further our understanding of α-particle effects in target cells for leukaemogenesis and also to seek general markers of individual exposure to α-particles, this study assessed the transmission of chromosomal damage initially-induced in human haemopoietic stem and progenitor cells after exposure to high-LET α-particles. Cells surviving exposure were differentiated into mature T-cells by extra-thymic T-cell differentiation in vitro. Multiplex fluorescence in situ hybridisation (M-FISH) analysis of naïve T-cell populations showed the occurrence of stable (clonal) complex chromosome aberrations consistent with those that are characteristically induced in spherical cells by the traversal of a single α-particle track. Additionally, complex chromosome exchanges were observed in the progeny of irradiated mature T-cell populations. In addition to this, newly arising de novo chromosome aberrations were detected in cells which possessed clonal markers of α-particle exposure and also in cells which did not show any evidence of previous exposure, suggesting ongoing genomic instability in these populations. Our findings support the usefulness and reliability of employing complex chromosome exchanges as indicators of past or ongoing exposure to high-LET radiation and demonstrate the potential applicability to evaluate health risks associated with α-particle exposure.This work was supported by the Department of Health, UK. Contract RRX95 (RMA NSDTG)

Dicentric Dose Estimates for Patients Undergoing Radiotherapy in the RTGene Study to Assess Blood Dosimetric Models and the New Bayesian Method for Gradient Exposure.

The RTGene study was focused on the development and validation of new transcriptional biomarkers for prediction of individual radiotherapy patient responses to ionizing radiation. In parallel, for validation purposes, this study incorporated conventional biomarkers of radiation exposure, including the dicentric assay. Peripheral blood samples were taken with ethical approval and informed consent from a total of 20 patients undergoing external beam radiotherapy for breast, lung, gastrointestinal or genitourinary tumors. For the dicentric assay, two samples were taken from each patient: prior to radiotherapy and before the final fraction. Blood samples were set up using standard methods for the dicentric assay. All the baseline samples had dicentric frequencies consistent with the expected background for the normal population. For blood taken before the final fraction, all the samples displayed distributions of aberrations, which are indicative of partial-body exposures. Whole-body and partial-body cytogenetic doses were calculated with reference to a 250-kVp X-ray calibration curve and then compared to the dose to blood derived using two newly developed blood dosimetric models. Initial comparisons indicated that the relationship between these measures of dose appear very promising, with a correlation of 0.88 (P = 0.001). A new Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson finite mixture method was applied to the dicentric data, and partial-body dose estimates showed no significant difference (P > 0.999) from those calculated by the contaminated Poisson technique. The next step will be further development and validation in a larger patient group