Unbiased Tail Estimation by an Extension of the Generalized Pareto Distribution

AMS classifications: 62G20; 62G32;bias;exchange rate;heavy tails;peaks-over-threshold;regular variation;tail index

Unbiased Tail Estimation by an Extension of the Generalized Pareto Distribution

AMS classifications: 62G20; 62G32;

Gambling with the future of young people

First paragraph: UK Policy makers addressed two key public health problems last summer: smoking and gambling. Both are quasi-voluntary behaviours, involve powerful vested interests and have serious implications for the future health and well being of young people; but policy on them is going in opposite directions. July’s smokefree legislation was followed in October by a law increasing the legal age of tobacco purchase to 18. This builds on the 2002 Tobacco Advertising and Promotion Act, which removed all tobacco advertising, and the mandating of enhanced health warnings in 2001, which in October 2008 will be further improved by the addition of graphic images. These measures combine with systematic increases in the taxation on tobacco products, NHS countrywide smoking cessation services and multi-component health promotion

From Transit Hub to Major Supplier of Illicit Cigarettes to Argentina and Brazil: The Changing Role of Domestic Production and Transnational Tobacco Companies in Paraguay Between 1960 and 2003

Background  Paraguay has reportedly been a major transit hub for illicit tobacco products since the 1960s, initially to supply markets in Argentina and Brazil and, more recently, other regional markets and beyond. However, to date there has been no systematic analysis, notably independent of the tobacco industry, of this trade including the roles of domestic production and transnational tobacco companies (TTCs). This article fills that gap by detailing the history of Paraguay’s illicit cigarette trade to Brazil and Argentina of TTC products and Paraguayan production between 1960 and 2003. The effective control of illicit cigarette flows, under Article 15 of the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and the Protocol to Eliminate the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products, requires fuller understanding of the changing nature of the illicit trade. Methods  We systematically searched internal industry documents to understand the activities and strategies of leading TTCs in Paraguay and subregion over time. We also mapped illicit trade volume and patterns using US government and UN data on the cigarette trade involving Paraguay. We then estimated Paraguay’s cigarette production from 1989 to 2003 using tobacco leaf flows from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade). Results  We identify four phases in the illicit tobacco trade involving Paraguay: 1) Paraguay as a transit hub to smuggle BAT and PMI cigarettes from the U.S. into Argentina and Brazil (from the 1960s to the mid-1970s); 2) BAT and PMI competing in north-east Argentina (1989–1994); 3) BAT and PMI competing in southern and southern-east Brazil (mid to late 1990s); and 4) the growth in the illicit trade of Paraguayan manufactured cigarettes (from the mid- 1990s onwards). These phases suggest the illicit trade was seeded by TTCs, and that the system of supply and demand on lower priced brands they developed in the 1990s created a business opportunity for manufacturing in Paraguay. Brazil’s efforts to fight this trade, with a 150% tax on exports to Latin American countries in 1999, further prompted supply of the illicit trade to shift from TTCs to Paraguayan manufacturers. Conclusion  This paper extends evidence of the longstanding complicity of TTCs in the illicit trade to this region and the consequent growth of Paraguayan production in the 1990s. Our findings confirm the need to better understand the factors influencing how the illicit tobacco trade has changed over time, in specific regional contexts, and amid tobacco industry globalization. In Paraguay, the changing roles of TTC and domestic production have been central to shifting patterns of illicit supply and distribution since the 1960s. Important questions are raised, in turn, about TTCs efforts to participate as legitimate partners in global efforts to combat the problem, including a leading role in data gathering and analysis

PEMBINAAN NARAPIDANA YANG MENGALAMI GANGGUAN JIWA DI DALAM LEMBAGA PEMASYARAKATAN

PEMBINAAN NARAPIDANA YANG MENGALAMI GANGGUAN JIWADI LEMBAGA PEMASYARAKATAN Agusriadi Dahlan Ali Suhaimi ABSTRAKLembaga Pemasyarakatan sebelumnya disebut Penjara adalah tempat orang-orang yang melakukan kriminalitas dan pelanggaran hukum lainnya agar mereka dapat menyadari kesalahannya dan mempertanggungjawabkan apa yang telah mereka perbuat. Hukuman yang mereka terima sebagai balasan yang setimpal terhadap perbuatan mereka, meskipun nilai-nilai kemanusiaan beserta hak asasinya kurang diperhatikan. Lembaga Pemasyarakatan merupakan tempat yang stressfull atau menekan yang dapat berpengaruh terhadap fisik dan kejiwaan (psikologi) seseorang ditambah kecemasan yang berlebihan sehingga muncul depresi yang mengakibatkan seseorang melakukan bunuh diri. Akibat stress melahirkan depresi dan depresi biasanya akan terjadi kegoncangan kejiwaan yang luar biasa yang dapat mengakibatkan seseorang menjadi tidak waras (gila). Undang-Undang No.12/1995 tentang Lembaga Pemasyarakatan maupun Peraturan Pemerintah No. 99 Tahun 2012 tentang Perubahan Kedua Atas Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 32 Tahun 1999 tentang Syarat dan Tata Cara Pelaksanaan Hak Warga Binaan Pemasyarakatan tidak menjelaskan ketentuan terhadap narapidana yang gila di dalam lapas sebagaimana yang pernah terjadi di Lapas Kelas II-A Lambaro, Aceh Besar dan Rutan Klas I Tanjung Gusta, Medan. Selanjutnya yang bersangkutan dikirim ke Lapas Kelas Klass II-B Meulaboh tanggal 27 Januari 2014. Selama tujuh hari di Lapas Klass II-B Meulaboh Zabir bin Ilyas kemudian di titipkan di Rumah Sakit Jiwa Banda Aceh karena penyakitnya sudah mencapai stadium empat untuk mendapatkan perawatan dan penyembuhan kejiwaannya. Bagaimanakah pengaturan dan pembinaan terhadap narapidana yang mengalami gangguan kejiwaan dalam Lembaga Pemasyarakatan. Kemudian bagaimanakah kepastian hukum bagi narapidana yang sedang mengalami gangguan kejiwaan, dan bagaimana status hukum bagi narapidana yang sembuh dari gangguan kejiwaan. Penelitian dan pengkajian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaturan dan pembinaan terhadap narapidana yang mengalami gangguan kejiwaan dalam Lapas dan mengidentifikasi kepastian hukum bagi narapidana yang sedang mengalami gangguan kejiwaan serta mengetahui status hukum bagi narapidana yang sembuh dari gangguan kejiwaan.Metode yang digunakan adalah metode penelitian yuridis-normatif dengan menggunakan jenis penelitian deskriptis analisis dalam rangka untuk menemukan aturan hukum, prinsip-prinsip hukum, norma maupun doktrin-doktrin hukum dengan pendekatan undang-undang, kasus. Sumber data adalah data sekunder berupa bahan hukum primer, bahan hukum sekunder, dan bahan hukum tersier.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Pengaturan tentang perawatan narapidana yang mengalami gangguan kejiwaan dalam Lembaga Pemasyarakatan di Indonesia belum diatur, baik dalam Undang-Undang Nomor 12 Tahun 1995 tentang Lembaga Pemasyarakatan maupun PP No. 99 Tahun 2012 tentang PP No. 99 Tahun 2012 tentang Perubahan Kedua Atas PP No.32 Tahun 1999 tentang Syarat dan Tata Cara Pelaksanaan Hak Warga Binaan Pemasyarakatan. Namun bila narapidana sakit atau gangguan kesehatan lainnya yang tidak termasuk gangguan kejiwaan ada aturan tentang perawatan medis. Adapun mengenai narapidana yang mengalami gangguan kejiwaan di Lembaga Pemasyarakatan di Indonesia hingga kini belum ada kepastian hukum karena kasus seperti ini sangat langka terjadi di Indonesia. Pihak otoritas hanya menggunakan hak diskresi yang dimilikinya untuk menyelesaikan kasus tersebut sebagaimana terjadi di Lapas Porong Surabaya. Tetapi di Aceh kasus ini baru pertama kali terjadi yang dialami Zabir bin Ilyas pada tahun 2014. Pimpinan Lapas memutuskan memasukkan Zabir bin Ilyas ke Rumah Sakit Jiwa Banda Aceh. Terkait status hukum narapidana yang sembuh dari gangguan kejiwaan masih tetap sebagai tersangka (ditahan). Tidak ada keringanan hukuman apalagi sampai dibebaskan sebelum masa hukuman habis dijalankan. Hingga kini tidak ada satupun aturan yang mengatur baik secara implisit maupun ekplisit yang mengatur tentang narapidana yang sembuh dari penyakit kejiwaan (gila).Disarankan kepada Pemerintah agar merevisi Undang-Undang Nomor 12 Tahun 1995 tentang Lembaga Pemasyarakatan dan memasukkan salah satu pasal yang mengatur mengenai narapidana yang mengalami gangguan kejiwaan di dalam Lembaga Pemasyarakatan. Agar terwujudnya kepastian hukum di Indonesia mengenai narapidana yang mengalami gangguan kejiwaan dalam lebaga pemasyarakatan untuk membuat regulasi legal baik berupa undang-undang khusus atau melalui Peraturan Pemerintah. Kemudian disarankan agar narapidana yang mengalami gangguan kejiwaan dalam Lembaga Pemasyarakatan dapat dibebaskan dan dikembalikan ke keluarganya atau dimasukkan ke rumah sakit jiwa hingga sembuh.Kata Kunci : Pembinaan, Narapidana, Gangguan Jiwa, Lembaga Pemasyarakatan.Banda Ace

Serological markers for prediction of response to anti-tumor necrosis factor treatment in Crohn's disease

peer reviewedOBJECTIVES: The use of monoclonal anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antibodies (infliximab, Remicade) is a new therapeutic approach for severe refractory luminal or fistulizing, Crohn's disease (CD). However, up to 30% of patients do not respond to this treatment. So far, no parameters predictive of response to anti-TNT have been identified. Our aim was to determine whether serological markers ASCA (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies) or pANCA (perinuclear antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies) could identify Crohn's patients likely to benefit from anti-TNF therapy. METHODS: Serum samples of 279 CID patients were analyzed for ASCA and pANCA before anti-TNF therapy. A blinded physician determined clinical response at week 4 (refractory luminal CD) or week 10 (fistulizing CD) after the first infusion of infliximab (5 mg/kg). RESULTS: Overall, there was no relationship between ASCA or pANCA and response to therapy. However, lower response rates were observed for patients with refractory intestinal disease carrying the pANCA+/ASCA- combination, although this lacked significance (p = 0.067). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of infliximab-treated patients, neither ASCA nor pANCA could predict response to treatment. However, the combination pANCA+/ASCA- might warrant further investigation for its value in predicting nonresponse in patients with refractory luminal disease

EURL ECVAM Workshop on New Generation of Physiologically-Based Kinetic Models in Risk Assessment

The European Union Reference Laboratory for Alternatives to Animal Testing (EURL ECVAM) Strategy Document on Toxicokinetics (TK) outlines strategies to enable prediction of systemic toxicity by applying new approach methodologies (NAM). The central feature of the strategy focuses on using physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) modelling to integrate data generated by in vitro and in silico methods for absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) in humans for predicting whole-body TK behaviour, for environmental chemicals, drugs, nano-materials, and mixtures. In order to facilitate acceptance and use of this new generation of PBK models, which do not rely on animal/human in vivo data in the regulatory domain, experts were invited by EURL ECVAM to (i) identify current challenges in the application of PBK modelling to support regulatory decision making; (ii) discuss challenges in constructing models with no in vivo kinetic data and opportunities for estimating parameter values using in vitro and in silico methods; (iii) present the challenges in assessing model credibility relying on non-animal data and address strengths, uncertainties and limitations in such an approach; (iv) establish a good kinetic modelling practice workflow to serve as the foundation for guidance on the generation and use of in vitro and in silico data to construct PBK models designed to support regulatory decision making. To gauge the current state of PBK applications, experts were asked upfront of the workshop to fill a short survey. In the workshop, using presentations and discussions, the experts elaborated on the importance of being transparent about the model construct, assumptions, and applications to support assessment of model credibility. The experts offered several recommendations to address commonly perceived limitations of parameterization and evaluation of PBK models developed using non-animal data and its use in risk assessment, these include: (i) develop a decision tree for model construction; (ii) set up a task force for independent model peer review; (iii) establish a scoring system for model evaluation; (iv) attract additional funding to develop accessible modelling software.; (v) improve and facilitate communication between scientists (model developers, data provider) and risk assessors/regulators; and (vi) organise specific training for end users. The experts also acknowledged the critical need for developing a guidance document on building, characterising, reporting and documenting PBK models using non-animal data. This document would also need to include guidance on interpreting the model analysis for various risk assessment purposes, such as incorporating PBK models in integrated strategy approaches and integrating them with in vitro toxicity testing and adverse outcome pathways. This proposed guidance document will promote the development of PBK models using in vitro and silico data and facilitate the regulatory acceptance of PBK models for assessing safety of chemicals