Probabilistic Common Stock Analysis

Edward J . Farragher is an Associate Professor of Finance, Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Detroit

Vertical Habitat Gradients: Comparing Phytoplankton Dynamics in Lakes with Low to Moderate Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentration

Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) increased across lakes of Maine for several decades before stabilizing or decreasing in recent years. To investigate the seasonal effects of DOC on phytoplankton habitat structure, I assessed vertical gradients of temperature, oxygen, light, and chlorophyll in four lakes in Acadia National Park from under ice through fall turnover in 2020. Lake DOC concentrations ranged from low (~2 mg L-1) to moderate (~4 mg L-1). Low-DOC lakes were clearer, with greater mean Secchi depths (9-15 m) than moderate-DOC lakes (5-6 m). Moderate-DOC lakes experienced hypolimnetic anoxia in the summer and had more variable concentrations and vertical gradients of chlorophyll a. Seasonal variance of vertical habitat gradients were similar between low- and moderate-DOC lakes, but there was greater stability of chlorophyll a biomass and consistently deeper chlorophyll fluorescence peaks in the low-DOC lakes. Phytoplankton community structure was also assessed at three depths in one low- and one moderate-DOC lake on four dates over the sampling period. While the concentration and depth of chlorophyll a varied more in the moderate-DOC lake, there was greater turnover of phytoplankton community in the low-DOC lake, with Morisita-Horn dissimilarity slightly higher in low-DOC Jordan Pond (r2 = 0.66, p \u3c 0.01) than in moderate-DOC Seal Cove Pond (r2 = 0.61, p \u3c 0.01). Long-term trends in DOC concentration were correlated with Secchi depth across several lakes in Acadia National Park (r2 = 0.76, p \u3c 0.001), and DOC concentration was also related to changes in phytoplankton pigment assemblages in the sediment record of Seal Cove Pond (r2 = -0.38, p = 0.09). DOC concentration was not related to diatom-inferred mixing depth in Seal ii Cove Pond’s sediment record, suggesting that DOC has a greater impact on light environment than on mixing depth in the moderate-DOC lake. Differences in the vertical habitat gradients and phytoplankton community structure of lakes ranging in DOC concentration from 2-4 mg L-1 indicates that lakes are highly sensitive to changes in light environment, thermal structure, and other environmental drivers, particularly at low DOC concentrations. The greater sensitivity of low- to moderate-DOC lakes has important implications for broader ecosystem processes, including nutrient cycling, productivity, and water quality

Geographical inequalities in uptake of NHS funded eye examinations: Poisson modelling of small-area data for Essex, UK.

Background: Small-area analysis of National Health Service (NHS)-funded sight test uptake in Leeds showed significant inequalities in access among people aged <16 or ≥60. Methods: Data were extracted from 604 126 valid General Ophthalmic Services (GOS)1 claim forms for eye examinations for Essex residents between October 2013 and July 2015. Expected GOS1 uptake for each lower super output area was based on England annual uptake. Poisson regression modelling explored associations in GOS1 uptake ratio with deprivation. Results: People aged ≥60 or <16 living in the least deprived quintile were 15% and 26%, respectively, more likely to have an NHS funded eye examination than the most deprived quintile, although all are equally entitled. GOS1 uptake is higher in the more deprived quintiles among 16-59-year old, as means tested social benefits are the main eligibility criteria in this age-group. Inequalities were also observed at local authority level. Conclusions: Inequalities in access among people ≥60 years were not as large as those reported in Leeds, although inequalities in <16-year old were similar. However, demonstrable inequalities in this data set over a longer time period and a larger and more diverse area than Leeds, reinforce the argument that interventions are needed to address eye examination uptake inequalities

Implementation of influenza point-of-care-testing and patient-cohorting during a high-incidence season: a retrospective analysis of impact on infection prevention and control and clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND: During high-incidence influenza seasons, a robust infection prevention and control policy is imperative to reduce nosocomial transmission of influenza. AIM: To assess the impact of Emergency Department (ED) influenza point-of-care-testing (POCT) and influenza-ward patient-cohorting on infection prevention and control and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Influenza POCT was operational in our adult ED from 21st January 2018 and an influenza-ward from 25th January 2018. A retrospective 'before-after' analysis was performed with pre-intervention defined as 1st November 2017-20th January 2018 and post-intervention 21st January-30th April 2018. Primary outcome was rate of hospital-acquired influenza (HAI). Secondary outcomes included antiviral prescription and length of stay. The length of time inpatients remain influenza RNA detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was also analysed

Assessing the impact of care farms on quality of life and offending: a pilot study among probation service users in England

OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility of conducting a cost-effectiveness study of using care farms (CFs) to improve quality of life and reduce reoffending among offenders undertaking community orders (COs). To pilot questionnaires to assess quality of life, connection to nature, lifestyle behaviours, health and social-care use. To assess recruitment and retention at 6 months and feasibility of data linkage to Police National Computer (PNC) reconvictions data and data held by probation services. DESIGN: Pilot study using questionnaires to assess quality of life, individually linked to police and probation data. SETTING: The pilot study was conducted in three probation service regions in England. Each site included a CF and at least one comparator CO project. CFs are working farms used with a range of clients, including offenders, for therapeutic purposes. The three CFs included one aquaponics and horticulture social enterprise, a religious charity focusing on horticulture and a family-run cattle farm. Comparator projects included sorting secondhand clothes and activities to address alcohol misuse and anger management. PARTICIPANTS: We recruited 134 adults (over 18) serving COs in England, 29% female. RESULTS: 52% of participants completed follow-up questionnaires. Privatisation of UK probation trusts in 2014 negatively impacted on recruitment and retention. Linkage to PNC data was a more successful means of follow-up, with 90% consenting to access their probation and PNC data. Collection of health and social-care costs and quality-adjusted life year derivation were feasible. Propensity score adjustment provided a viable comparison method despite differences between comparators. We found worse health and higher reoffending risk among CF participants due to allocation of challenging offenders to CFs, making risk of reoffending a confounder. CONCLUSIONS: Recruitment would be feasible in a more stable probation environment. Follow-up was challenging; however, assessing reconvictions from PNC data is feasible and a potential primary outcome for future studies

Prevalence, Nature, Severity and Risk Factors for Prescribing Errors in Hospital Inpatients : Prospective Study in 20 UK Hospitals

Funding This study was funded by the General Medical Council (GMC). The study funders had no role in the study design, in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data, in the writing of this manuscript or in the decision to submit the article for publication. Acknowledgements The EQUIP team would like to thank the following people: Members of the Expert Reference Group (Graham Buckley, Gary Cook, Dianne Parker, Lesley Pugsley and Mike Scott); Members of the Error Validation Group (Lindsay Harper, Katy Mellor, Steven Williams, Keith Harkins, Steve McGlynn, Ray George, Tim Dornan, Penny Lewis); Tribal Consulting Ltd. (Heather Heathfield, Emma Carter) for database design; Study co-ordinators at hospitals (Linda Aldred, Deborah Armstrong, Isam Badhawi, Kathryn Ball, Neil Caldwell, Vanya Fidling, Nicholas Fong, Heather Ford, Andrea Gill, Lindsay Harper, Jean Holmes, Sally James, Christopher Poole, Sally Shaw, Heather Smith, Julie Street, Atia Rifat, David Thornton, Tracey Thornton, Jane Warren, Steven Williams), and all pharmacists at the study sites who collected data for this study.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

High temperature, low cycle fatigue characterization of P91 weld and heat affected zone material

The high temperature low cycle fatigue behavior of P91 weld metal (WM) and weld joints (cross-weld) is presented. Strain-controlled tests have been carried out at 400 °C and 500 °C. The cyclic behavior of the weld material (WM) and cross-weld (CW) specimens are compared with previously published base material (BM) tests. The weld material is shown to give a significantly harder and stiffer stress–strain response than both the base material and the cross-weld material. The cross-weld tests exhibited a cyclic stress–strain response, which was similar to that of the base material. All specimen types exhibited cyclic softening but the degree of softening exhibited by the cross-weld specimens was lower than that of the base material and all-weld tests. Finite element models of the base metal, weld metal and cross-weld test specimens are developed and employed for identification of the cyclic viscoplasticity material parameters. Heat affected zone (HAZ) cracking was observed for the cross-weld tests

Micromechanical finite element modelling of thermo-mechanical fatigue for P91 steels

In this paper, the cyclic plasticity and fatigue crack initiation behaviour of a tempered martensite ferritic steel under thermo-mechanical fatigue conditions is examined by means of micromechanical finite element modelling. The crystal plasticity-based model explicitly reflects the microstructure of the material, measured by electronic backscatter diffraction. The predicted cyclic thermo-mechanical response agrees well with experiments under both in-phase and out-of-phase conditions. A thermo-mechanical fatigue indicator parameter, with stress triaxiality and temperature taken into account, is developed to predict fatigue crack initiation. In the fatigue crack initiation simulation, the out-of-phase thermo-mechanical response is identified to be more dangerous than in-phase response, which is consistent with experimental failure data. It is shown that the behaviour of thermo-mechanical fatigue can be effectively predicted at the microstructural level and this can lead to a more accurate assessment procedure for power plant components

Impact and cost-effectiveness of care farms on health and well-being of offenders on probation: a pilot study

Background Care farms (CFs), in which all or part of the farm is used for therapeutic purposes, show potential for improving well-being for disadvantaged groups. We assessed the feasibility of determining the cost-effectiveness of CFs in improving quality of life compared with comparator sites among probationers undertaking community orders (COs). Objectives (1) To conduct a systematic review of CF impacts and mechanisms in improving health and logic model development; (2) to inform future studies by estimating differences in quality of life and other outcomes, identifying factors driving CO allocation and ways to maximise recruitment and follow-up; and (3) to assess feasibility of cost-effectiveness analysis. Review methods A mixed-methods synthesis following Campbell Collaboration guidelines. Pilot study: three probation service regions in England, each with a CF and a comparator CO site. Participants were adult offenders (aged ≥ 18 years) serving COs. The primary outcome was quality of life [as measured via the Clinical Outcome in Routine Evaluation–Outcome Measure (CORE-OM)]. Other outcomes were health behaviours, mental well-being, connectedness to nature and reconvictions. Data sources In November 2014, we searched 22 health, education, environmental, criminal justice and social science electronic databases, databases of grey literature and care farming websites across Europe. There were no language restrictions. A full list of databases searched is given in Appendix 1; some examples include Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (via EBSCOhost), The Campbell Library, Criminal Justice Abstracts (via EBSCOhost), MEDLINE (via Ovid) and Scopus (Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, the Netherlands). Results Our systematic review identified 1659 articles: 14 qualitative, 12 quantitative and one mixed-methods study. Small sample sizes and poor design meant that all were rated as being at a high risk of bias. Components of CFs that potentially improve health are being in a group, the role of the farmer and meaningful work, and interaction with animals. There was a lack of quantitative evidence indicating that CFs improve quality of life and there was weak evidence of improved mental health, self-efficacy, self-esteem, affect and mood. In the pilot study we recruited 134 respondents, and only 21 declined; 37% were allocated to three CFs and the remainder to comparators. This was below our recruitment target of 300. Recruitment proved challenging as a result of the changes in probation (probation trusts were disbanded in 2014) and closure of one CF. We found significant differences between CFs and comparator users: those at CFs were more likely to be male, smokers, substance users, at higher risk of reoffending (a confounder) and have more missing CORE-OM questions. Despite these differences, the use of propensity analysis facilitated comparison. Participants consented to our team accessing, and we were able to link, probation and police reconviction data for 90% of respondents. We gained follow-up questionnaire data from 52% of respondents, including health and social care use cost data. We transformed CORE-OM into CORE-6D, allowing derivation of quality-adjusted life-years. As a pilot, our study was not powered to identify significant differences in outcomes. Qualitatively, we observed that within COs, CFs can be formally recognised as rehabilitative but in practice can be seen as punitive. Limitations Changes in probation presented many challenges that limited recruitment and collection of cost data. Conclusions Recruitment is likely to be feasible in a more stable probation environment. Retention among probationers is challenging but assessing reconvictions from existing data is feasible. We found worse health and risk of reoffending among offenders at CFs, reflecting the use of CFs by probation to manage challenging offenders. Future work A sufficiently powered natural experiment is feasible and of value. Using reconvictions (from police data) as a primary outcome is one solution to challenges with retention. Propensity analysis provides a viable method for comparison despite differences in participants at CFs and comparator sites. However, future work is dependent on stability and support for CFs within probation services. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013892 and SW2013–04 (the Campbell Collaboration). Funding details The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme