Technical Report Series

This document is part of Technical Report (ref: EUR 21758 EN) from the Joint Research Centre and presents part of the modelling work conducted by DG JRC/IPTS as a contribution to the DG ENV Communication on post-2012 climate policy analysis (June 2005). The analyses with the POLES and GEM-E3 models show that the costs of abatement policies, both in marginal terms and total terms, can be significantly reduced if emissions trading and project based mechanisms are used

Proprioceptive Movement Illusions Due to Prolonged Stimulation: Reversals and Aftereffects

Background. Adaptation to constant stimulation has often been used to investigate the mechanisms of perceptual coding, but the adaptive processes within the proprioceptive channels that encode body movement have not been well described. We investigated them using vibration as a stimulus because vibration of muscle tendons results in a powerful illusion of movement. Methodology/Principal Findings. We applied sustained 90 Hz vibratory stimulation to biceps brachii, an elbow flexor and induced the expected illusion of elbow extension (in 12 participants). There was clear evidence of adaptation to the movement signal both during the 6-min long vibration and on its cessation. During vibration, the strong initial illusion of extension waxed and waned, with diminishing duration of periods of illusory movement and occasional reversals in the direction of the illusion. After vibration there was an aftereffect in which the stationary elbow seemed to move into flexion. Muscle activity shows no consistent relationship with the variations in perceived movement. Conclusion. We interpret the observed effects as adaptive changes in the central mechanisms that code movement in direction-selective opponent channels

Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality

Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk

The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Relating reflex gain modulation in posture control to underlying neural network properties using a neuromusculoskeletal model

During posture control, reflexive feedback allows humans to efficiently compensate for unpredictable mechanical disturbances. Although reflexes are involuntary, humans can adapt their reflexive settings to the characteristics of the disturbances. Reflex modulation is commonly studied by determining reflex gains: a set of parameters that quantify the contributions of Ia, Ib and II afferents to mechanical joint behavior. Many mechanisms, like presynaptic inhibition and fusimotor drive, can account for reflex gain modulations. The goal of this study was to investigate the effects of underlying neural and sensory mechanisms on mechanical joint behavior. A neuromusculoskeletal model was built, in which a pair of muscles actuated a limb, while being controlled by a model of 2,298 spiking neurons in six pairs of spinal populations. Identical to experiments, the endpoint of the limb was disturbed with force perturbations. System identification was used to quantify the control behavior with reflex gains. A sensitivity analysis was then performed on the neuromusculoskeletal model, determining the influence of the neural, sensory and synaptic parameters on the joint dynamics. The results showed that the lumped reflex gains positively correlate to their most direct neural substrates: the velocity gain with Ia afferent velocity feedback, the positional gain with muscle stretch over II afferents and the force feedback gain with Ib afferent feedback. However, position feedback and force feedback gains show strong interactions with other neural and sensory properties. These results give important insights in the effects of neural properties on joint dynamics and in the identifiability of reflex gains in experiments

Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks: the role of ISIMIP

The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socio-economic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Lumbar position sense acuity during an electrical shock stressor

BACKGROUND: Optimal motor control of the spine depends on proprioceptive input as a prerequisite for co-ordination and the stability of the spine. Muscle spindles are known to play an important role in proprioception. Animal experiments suggest that an increase in sympathetic outflow can depress muscle spindle sensitivity. As the muscle spindle may be influenced by sympathetic modulation, we hypothesized that a state of high sympathetic activity as during mental stress would affect the proprioceptive output from the muscle spindles in the back muscles leading to alterations in proprioception and position sense acuity. The aim was to investigate the effect of mental stress, in this study the response to an electrical shock stressor, on position sense acuity in the rotational axis of the lumbar spine. METHODS: Passive and active position sense acuity in the rotational plane of the lumbar spine was investigated in the presence and absence of an electrical shock stressor in 14 healthy participants. An electrical shock-threat stressor lasting for approximately 12 minutes was used as imposed stressor to build up a strong anticipatory arousal: The participants were told that they were going to receive 8 painful electrical shocks however the participants never received the shocks. To quantify the level of physiological arousal and the level of sympathetic outflow continuous beat-to-beat changes in heart rate (beats*min(-1)) and systolic, diastolic and mean arterial blood pressure (mmHg) were measured. To quantify position sense acuity absolute error (AE) expressed in degrees was measured. Two-way analysis of variance with repeated measurements (subjects as random factor and treatments as fixed factors) was used to compare the different treatments. RESULTS: Significant increases were observed in systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate during the stress sessions indicating elevated sympathetic activity (15, 14 and 10%, respectively). Despite pronounced changes in the sympathetic activity and subjective experiences of stress no changes were found in position sense acuity in the rotational plane of the lumbar spine in the presence of the electrical shock stressor compared to the control period. CONCLUSION: The present findings indicate that position sense acuity in the rotational plane of the spine was unaffected by the electrical shock stressor

Triceps Surae Short Latency Stretch Reflexes Contribute to Ankle Stiffness Regulation during Human Running

During human running, short latency stretch reflexes (SLRs) are elicited in the triceps surae muscles, but the function of these responses is still a matter of controversy. As the SLR is primarily mediated by Ia afferent nerve fibres, various methods have been used to examine SLR function by selectively blocking the Ia pathway in seated, standing and walking paradigms, but stretch reflex function has not been examined in detail during running. The purpose of this study was to examine triceps surae SLR function at different running speeds using Achilles tendon vibration to modify SLR size. Ten healthy participants ran on an instrumented treadmill at speeds between 7 and 15 km/h under 2 Achilles tendon vibration conditions: no vibration and 90 Hz vibration. Surface EMG from the triceps surae and tibialis anterior muscles, and 3D lower limb kinematics and ground reaction forces were simultaneously collected. In response to vibration, the SLR was depressed in the triceps surae muscles at all speeds. This coincided with short-lasting yielding at the ankle joint at speeds between 7 and 12 km/h, suggesting that the SLR contributes to muscle stiffness regulation by minimising ankle yielding during the early contact phase of running. Furthermore, at the fastest speed of 15 km/h, the SLR was still depressed by vibration in all muscles but yielding was no longer evident. This finding suggests that the SLR has greater functional importance at slow to intermediate running speeds than at faster speeds

Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality

Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk. © 2022, The Author(s).The original version of this Article contained an error in Affiliation 25, which was incorrectly given as ‘Faculty of Medicine ArqFuturo INSPER, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil’. The correct affiliation is listed below. Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil The original Article has been corrected. © The Author(s) 2022.The study was primarily supported by Grants from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre Seville (Research Contract ID: JRC/SVQ/2020/MVP/1654), Medical Research Council-UK (Grant ID: MR/R013349/1), Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655). The following individual Grants also supported this work: J.K and A.U were supported by the Czech Science Foundation, project 20-28560S. A.T was supported by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, Grant CEX2018-000794-S. V.H was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant agreement No 101032087. This work was generated using Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) information [1985–2019]