Flood realities, perceptions, and the depth of divisions on climate

Research has led to broad agreement among scientists that anthropogenic climate change is happening now and likely to worsen. In contrast to scientific agreement, US public views remain deeply divided, largely along ideological lines. Science communication has been neutralised in some arenas by intense counter-messaging, but as adverse climate impacts become manifest they might intervene more persuasively in local perceptions. We look for evidence of this occurring with regard to realities and perceptions of flooding in the northeastern US state of New Hampshire. Although precipitation and flood damage have increased, with ample news coverage, most residents do not see a trend. Nor do perceptions about past and future local flooding correlate with regional impacts or vulnerability. Instead, such perceptions follow ideological patterns resembling those of global climate change. That information about the physical world can be substantially filtered by ideology is a common finding from sociological environment/society research

The implications of climate change for the water environment in England

This paper reviews the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management in England. There is a large literature, but most studies have looked at flow volumes or nutrients and none have considered explicitly the implications of climate change for the delivery of water management objectives. Studies have been undertaken in a small number of locations. Studies have used observations from the past to infer future changes, and have used numerical simulation models with climate change scenarios. The literature indicates that climate change poses risks to the delivery of water management objectives, but that these risks depend on local catchment and water body conditions. Climate change affects the status of water bodies, and it affects the effectiveness of measures to manage the water environment and meet policy objectives. The future impact of climate change on the water environment and its management is uncertain. Impacts are dependent on changes in the duration of dry spells and frequency of ‘flushing’ events, which are highly uncertain and not included in current climate scenarios. There is a good qualitative understanding of ways in which systems may change, but interactions between components of the water environment are poorly understood. Predictive models are only available for some components, and model parametric and structural uncertainty has not been evaluated. The impacts of climate change depend on other pressures on the water environment in a catchment, and also on the management interventions that are undertaken to achieve water management objectives. The paper has also developed a series of consistent conceptual models describing the implications of climate change for pressures on the water environment, based around the source-pathway-receptor concept. They provide a framework for a systematic assessment across catchments and pressures of the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management

Analyzing the discharge regime of a large tropical river through remote sensing, ground-based climatic data, and modeling

This study demonstrates the potential for applying passive microwave satellite sensor data to infer the discharge dynamics of large river systems using the main stem Amazon as a test case. The methodology combines (1) interpolated ground-based meteorological station data, (2) horizontally and vertically polarized temperature differences (HVPTD) from the 37-GHz scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite, and (3) a calibrated water balance/water transport model (WBM/WTM). Monthly HVPTD values at 0.25° (latitude by longitude) resolution were resampled spatially and temporally to produce an enhanced HVPTD time series at 0.5° resolution for the period May 1979 through February 1985. Enhanced HVPTD values were regressed against monthly discharge derived from the WBM/WTM for each of 40 grid cells along the main stem over a calibration period from May 1979 to February 1983 to provide a spatially contiguous estimate of time-varying discharge. HVPTD-estimated flows generated for a validation period from March 1983 to February 1985 were found to be in good agreement with both observed arid modeled discharges over a 1400-km section of the main stem Amazon. This span of river is bounded downstream by a region of tidal influence and upstream by low sensor response associated with dense forest canopy. Both the WBM/WTM and HVPTD-derived flow rates reflect the significant impact of the 1982–1983 El Niño-;Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on water balances within the drainage basin

The primordial "f_NL" non-Gaussianity, and perturbations beyond the present horizon

We show a primordial non-linear "f_NL" term may produce unphysically large CMB anisotropy for a red-tilted primordial power spectrum (n<1), because of coupling to primordial fluctuation on the largest scale. We consider a primordial power spectrum models of a running spectral index, and a transition at very low wavenumbers. We find that only negative running spectral index models are allowed, provided that there is no transition at a low wavenumbers (i.e. k -184, at 1 sigma level, on the transition scale of sharp cut-off models, using recent CMB and SDSS data.Comment: v2: Journal information adde

In search of ‘lost’ knowledge and outsourced expertise in flood risk management

This paper examines the parallel discourses of ‘lost’ local flood expertise and the growing use of commercial consultancies to outsource aspects of flood risk work. We critically examine the various claims and counter-claims about lost, local and external expertise in flood management, focusing on the aftermath of the 2007 floods in East Yorkshire, England. Drawing on interviews with consultants, drainage engineers and others, we caution against claims that privilege ‘local’ floods knowledge as ‘good’ and expert knowledge as somehow suspect. This paper urges carefulness in interpreting claims about local knowledge, arguing that it is important always to think instead of hybrid knowledge formations. We conclude by arguing that experiments in the co-production of flood risk knowledge need to be seen as part of a spectrum of ways for producing shared knowledge

Do students value feedback? Student perceptions of tutors' written responses

The topic of feedback to students is an under-researched area, and there has been little empirical research published which focuses on student perceptions. This study explores student perceptions of written feedback and examines whether feedback received demonstrated a student-centred approach to learning. A multi-method approach of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis was used to survey 44 students in the faculties of Business and Art & Design. Student responses show feedback is valued, but believed tutor comments could be more helpful. Survey results indicate that students may need advice on understanding and using feedback before they can engage with it. Content analysis of feedback samples and student responses uncovered four main themes of feedback considered unhelpful to improve learning: comments which were too general or vague, lacked guidance, focused on the negative, or were unrelated to assessment criteria. It is suggested that by focusing on messages conveyed by their writing, providing feedback set in the context of assessment criteria and learning outcomes, and by ensuring that it is timely, tutors could greatly improve the value of feedback

A framework for the selection of the right nuclear power plant

Civil nuclear reactors are used for the production of electrical energy. In the nuclear industry vendors propose several nuclear reactor designs with a size from 35–45 MWe up to 1600–1700 MWe. The choice of the right design is a multidimensional problem since a utility has to include not only financial factors as levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and internal rate of return (IRR), but also the so called “external factors” like the required spinning reserve, the impact on local industry and the social acceptability. Therefore it is necessary to balance advantages and disadvantages of each design during the entire life cycle of the plant, usually 40–60 years. In the scientific literature there are several techniques for solving this multidimensional problem. Unfortunately it does not seem possible to apply these methodologies as they are, since the problem is too complex and it is difficult to provide consistent and trustworthy expert judgments. This paper fills the gap, proposing a two-step framework to choosing the best nuclear reactor at the pre-feasibility study phase. The paper shows in detail how to use the methodology, comparing the choice of a small-medium reactor (SMR) with a large reactor (LR), characterised, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (2006), by an electrical output respectively lower and higher than 700 MWe