Balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties: An integrated hydro-economic modeling framework

In arid countries worldwide, social conflicts between irrigation-based human development and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems are widespread and attract many public debates. This research focuses on the analysis of water and agricultural policies aimed at conserving groundwater resources and maintaining rurallivelihoods in a basin in Spain's central arid region. Intensive groundwater mining for irrigation has caused overexploitation of the basin's large aquifer, the degradation of reputed wetlands and has given rise to notable social conflicts over the years. With the aim of tackling the multifaceted socio-ecological interactions of complex water systems, the methodology used in this study consists in a novel integration into a common platform of an economic optimization model and a hydrology model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). This robust tool is used to analyze the spatial and temporal effects of different water and agricultural policies under different climate scenarios. It permits the prediction of different climate and policy outcomes across farm types (water stress impacts and adaptation), at basin's level (aquifer recovery), and along the policies’ implementation horizon (short and long run). Results show that the region's current quota-based water policies may contribute to reduce water consumption in the farms but will not be able to recover the aquifer and will inflict income losses to the rural communities. This situation would worsen in case of drought. Economies of scale and technology are evidenced as larger farms with cropping diversification and those equipped with modern irrigation will better adapt to water stress conditions. However, the long-term sustainability of the aquifer and the maintenance of rurallivelihoods will be attained only if additional policy measures are put in place such as the control of illegal abstractions and the establishing of a water bank. Within the policy domain, the research contributes to the new sustainable development strategy of the EU by concluding that, in water-scarce regions, effective integration of water and agricultural policies is essential for achieving the water protection objectives of the EU policies. Therefore, the design and enforcement of well-balanced region-specific polices is a major task faced by policy makers for achieving successful water management that will ensure nature protection and human development at tolerable social costs. From a methodological perspective, this research initiative contributes to better address hydrological questions as well as economic and social issues in complex water and human systems. Its integrated vision provides a valuable illustration to inform water policy and management decisions within contexts of water-related conflicts worldwide

Detecting Starting Point Bias in Dichotomous-Choice Contingent Valuation Surveys

We examine starting point bias in CV surveys with dichotomous choice payment questions and follow-ups, and double-bounded models of the WTP responses. We wish to investigate (1) the seriousness of the biases for the location and scale parameters of WTP in the presence of starting point bias; (2) whether or not these biases depend on the distribution of WTP and on the bids used; and (3) how well a commonly used diagnostic for starting point bias - a test of the null that bid set dummies entered in the right-hand side of the WTP model are jointly equal to zero - performs under various circumstances. Because starting point bias cannot be separately identified in any reliable manner from biases caused by model specification, we use simulation approaches to address this issue. Our Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the effect of ignoring starting point bias is complex and depends on the true distribution of WTP. Bid set dummies tend to soak up misspecifications in the distribution assumed by the researcher for the latent WTP, rather than capturing the presence of starting point bias. Their power in detecting starting point bias is low

Ciliopathies with Skeletal Anomalies and Renal Insufficiency due to Mutations in the IFT-A Gene WDR19

A subset of ciliopathies, including Sensenbrenner, Jeune, and short-rib polydactyly syndromes are characterized by skeletal anomalies accompanied by multiorgan defects such as chronic renal failure and retinitis pigmentosa. Through exome sequencing we identified compound heterozygous mutations in WDR19 in a Norwegian family with Sensenbrenner syndrome. In a Dutch family with the clinically overlapping Jeune syndrome, a homozygous missense mutation in the same gene was found. Both families displayed a nephronophthisis-like nephropathy. Independently, we also identified compound heterozygous WDR19 mutations by exome sequencing in a Moroccan family with isolated nephronophthisis. WDR19 encodes IFT144, a member of the intraflagellar transport (IFT) complex A that drives retrograde ciliary transport. We show that IFT144 is absent from the cilia of fibroblasts from one of the Sensenbrenner patients and that ciliary abundance and morphology is perturbed, demonstrating the ciliary pathogenesis. Our results suggest that isolated nephronophthisis, Jeune, and Sensenbrenner syndromes are clinically overlapping disorders that can result from a similar molecular cause