The Waiting Time for Inter-Country Spread of Pandemic Influenza

BACKGROUND: The time delay between the start of an influenza pandemic and its subsequent initiation in other countries is highly relevant to preparedness planning. We quantify the distribution of this random time in terms of the separate components of this delay, and assess how the delay may be extended by non-pharmaceutical interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model constructed for this time delay accounts for: (i) epidemic growth in the source region, (ii) the delay until an infected individual from the source region seeks to travel to an at-risk country, (iii) the chance that infected travelers are detected by screening at exit and entry borders, (iv) the possibility of in-flight transmission, (v) the chance that an infected arrival might not initiate an epidemic, and (vi) the delay until infection in the at-risk country gathers momentum. Efforts that reduce the disease reproduction number in the source region below two and severe travel restrictions are most effective for delaying a local epidemic, and under favourable circumstances, could add several months to the delay. On the other hand, the model predicts that border screening for symptomatic infection, wearing a protective mask during travel, promoting early presentation of cases arising among arriving passengers and moderate reduction in travel volumes increase the delay only by a matter of days or weeks. Elevated in-flight transmission reduces the delay only minimally. CONCLUSIONS: The delay until an epidemic of pandemic strain influenza is imported into an at-risk country is largely determined by the course of the epidemic in the source region and the number of travelers attempting to enter the at-risk country, and is little affected by non-pharmaceutical interventions targeting these travelers. Short of preventing international travel altogether, eradicating a nascent pandemic in the source region appears to be the only reliable method of preventing country-to-country spread of a pandemic strain of influenza

Large-Scale Evidence for the Effect of the COLIA1 Sp1 Polymorphism on Osteoporosis Outcomes: The GENOMOS Study.

Background Osteoporosis and fracture risk are considered to be under genetic control. Extensive work is being performed to identify the exact genetic variants that determine this risk. Previous work has suggested that a G/T polymorphism affecting an Sp1 binding site in the COLIA1 gene is a genetic marker for low bone mineral density (BMD) and osteoporotic fracture, but there have been no very-large-scale studies of COLIA1 alleles in relation to these phenotypes. Methods and Findings Here we evaluated the role of COLIA1 Sp1 alleles as a predictor of BMD and fracture in a multicenter study involving 20,786 individuals from several European countries. At the femoral neck, the average (95% confidence interval [CI]) BMD values were 25 mg/cm2 (CI, 16 to 34 mg/cm2) lower in TT homozygotes than the other genotype groups ( p < 0.001), and a similar difference was observed at the lumbar spine; 21 mg/cm2 (CI, 1 to 42 mg/cm2), ( p = 0.039). These associations were unaltered after adjustment for potential confounding factors. There was no association with fracture overall (odds ratio [OR] = 1.01 [CI, 0.95 to 1.08]) in either unadjusted or adjusted analyses, but there was a non-significant trend for association with vertebral fracture and a nominally significant association with incident vertebral fractures in females (OR = 1.33 [CI, 1.00 to 1.77]) that was independent of BMD, and unaltered in adjusted analyses. Conclusions Allowing for the inevitable heterogeneity between participating teams, this study—which to our knowledge is the largest ever performed in the field of osteoporosis genetics for a single gene—demonstrates that the COLIA1 Sp1 polymorphism is associated with reduced BMD and could predispose to incident vertebral fractures in women, independent of BMD. The associations we observed were modest however, demonstrating the importance of conducting studies that are adequately powered to detect and quantify the effects of common genetic variants on complex diseases

Critical Essay: Organizational cognitive neuroscience drives theoretical progress, or: The curious case of the straw man murder:organizational cognitive neuroscience drives theoretical progress, or: The curious case of the straw man murder

In this critical essay, we respond to Lindebaum’s (2016) argument that neuroscientific methodologies and data have been accepted prematurely in proposing novel management theory. We acknowledge that building new management theories requires firm foundations. We also find his distinction between demand and supply side forces helpful as an analytical framework identifying the momentum for the contemporary production of management theory. Nevertheless, some of the arguments Lindebaum (2016) puts forward, on closer inspection, can be contested, especially those related to the supply side of organizational cognitive neuroscience (OCN) research: fMRI data, motherhood statements and ethical concerns. We put forward a more positive case for OCN methodologies and data, as well as clarifying exactly what OCN really means, and its consequences for the development of strong management theory

Adults with autism overestimate the volatility of the sensory environment.

Insistence on sameness and intolerance of change are among the diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but little research has addressed how people with ASD represent and respond to environmental change. Here, behavioral and pupillometric measurements indicated that adults with ASD are less surprised than neurotypical adults when their expectations are violated, and decreased surprise is predictive of greater symptom severity. A hierarchical Bayesian model of learning suggested that in ASD, a tendency to overlearn about volatility in the face of environmental change drives a corresponding reduction in learning about probabilistically aberrant events, thus putatively rendering these events less surprising. Participant-specific modeled estimates of surprise about environmental conditions were linked to pupil size in the ASD group, thus suggesting heightened noradrenergic responsivity in line with compromised neural gain. This study offers insights into the behavioral, algorithmic and physiological mechanisms underlying responses to environmental volatility in ASD

Variant curation expert panel recommendations for RYR1 pathogenicity classifications in malignant hyperthermia susceptibility

Purpose: As a ClinGen Expert Panel (EP) we set out to adapt the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG)/Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP) pathogenicity criteria for classification of RYR1 variants as related to autosomal dominantly inherited malignant hyperthermia (MH). Methods: We specified ACMG/AMP criteria for variant classification for RYR1 and MH. Proposed rules were piloted on 84 variants. We applied quantitative evidence calibration for several criteria using likelihood ratios based on the Bayesian framework. Results: Seven ACMG/AMP criteria were adopted without changes, nine were adopted with RYR1-specific modifications, and ten were dropped. The in silico (PP3 and BP4) and hotspot criteria (PM1) were evaluated quantitatively. REVEL gave an odds ratio (OR) of 23:1 for PP3 and 14:1 for BP4 using trichotomized cutoffs of ≥0.85 (pathogenic) and ≤0.5 (benign). The PM1 hotspot criterion had an OR of 24:1. PP3 and PM1 were implemented at moderate strength. Applying the revised ACMG/AMP criteria to 44 recognized MH variants, 29 were classified as pathogenic, 13 as likely pathogenic, and 2 as variants of uncertain significance. Conclusion: Curation of these variants will facilitate classification of RYR1/MH genomic testing results, which is especially important for secondary findings analyses. Our approach to quantitatively calibrating criteria is generalizable to other variant curation expert panels

Behavioural determinants of physical activity across the life course: a "Determinants of Diet and Physical Activity" (DEDIPAC) umbrella literature review

Background Low levels of physical activity (PA) are a global concern and increasing PA engagement is becoming a priority in current public health policies. Despite the large number of studies and reviews available, the evidence regarding the behavioral determinants of PA is still inconclusive. Thus, the aim of this umbrella systematic literature review (SLR) was to summarize the evidence on the behavioral determinants of PA across the life course. Methods A systematic online search was conducted on MEDLINE, ISI Web of Science, Scopus, and SPORTDiscus databases. The search was limited to studies published in English from January, 2004 to April, 2016. SLRs and meta-analyses (MAs) of observational studies that investigated the behavioral determinants of PA were considered eligible. The extracted data were assessed based on the importance of the determinants, the strength of evidence, and the methodological quality. The full protocol is available from PROSPERO (PROSPERO 2014:CRD42015010616). Results Seventeen reviews on 35 behavioral determinants of PA were eligible for this umbrella SLR. Regardless of age, the most investigated determinants were those related with ‘screen use’ and ‘smoking’. For youth, probable positive evidence emerged for ‘previous PA’ and ‘independent mobility and active transport’ among children and adolescents. For the adult population, ‘transition to university’ and ‘pregnancy/having a child’ showed probable negative associations. Conclusions Although the majority of the evidence was limited and most of the determinants were not associated with PA, this umbrella SLR provided a comprehensive overview of the associations between behavioral determinants and PA. Youth should be physically active in the early years and increase active transportation to/from school, independent mobility, and ‘free-range activities’ without adult supervision, whilst adult PA behaviors are mostly influenced by the life events. Finally, more research is needed that incorporates prospective study designs, standardized definitions of PA, objective measurement methods of PA assessment, and the use of interactionist and mediational approaches for the evaluation of different behavioral determinants influencing PA behaviors

Characterization of the association between 8q24 and colon cancer: gene-environment exploration and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Genome-wide association studies and subsequent replication studies have shown that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the chromosomal region 8q24 are associated with colorectal cancer susceptibility.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examined 11 SNP markers in the 8q24 region between 128.47 and 128.54 Mb, using a total of 1,987 colon cases and 2,339 controls who self-reported as white from two independent, well-characterized study populations. Analysis was performed separately within each study, and combined using random effects meta-analysis. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) and to test for effect modification by known colon cancer risk factors. We also performed a meta-analysis combining our results with previous studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed evidence of association for four SNPs in low to high linkage disequilibrium (r²ranging from 0.18 to 0.93) localized in a 16.2 kb region defined by rs10505477 and rs1056368. The combined results for our two studies of colon cancer showed an OR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.01-1.20, P_trend= 0.023), and a meta-analysis of our results with previously reported studies of colon and colorectal cancer strongly support the association for this SNP (combined OR for rs6983267 = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.18-1.24, p = 5.5 × 10^-44). We did not observe any notable evidence of effect modification by known colon cancer risk factors, and risk did not differ significantly by tumor site or stage.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study confirms the association between polymorphisms on chromosome 8q24 and colon cancer risk and suggests that the susceptibility locus in region 8q24 is not strongly modified by various lifestyle, environmental, and demographic risk factors for colon cancer.</p

Host Genetics and HIV-1: The Final Phase?

This is a crucial transition time for human genetics in general, and for HIV host genetics in particular. After years of equivocal results from candidate gene analyses, several genome-wide association studies have been published that looked at plasma viral load or disease progression. Results from other studies that used various large-scale approaches (siRNA screens, transcriptome or proteome analysis, comparative genomics) have also shed new light on retroviral pathogenesis. However, most of the inter-individual variability in response to HIV-1 infection remains to be explained: genome resequencing and systems biology approaches are now required to progress toward a better understanding of the complex interactions between HIV-1 and its human host

HIV-1 co-receptor usage:influence on mother-to-child transmission and pediatric infection

Viral CCR5 usage is not a predictive marker of mother to child transmission (MTCT) of HIV-1. CXCR4-using viral variants are little represented in pregnant women, have an increased although not significant risk of transmission and can be eventually also detected in the neonates. Genetic polymorphisms are more frequently of relevance in the child than in the mother. However, specific tissues as the placenta or the intestine, which are involved in the prevalent routes of infection in MTCT, may play an important role of selective barriers