Reliability and usability of tourism climate indices.

Tourism climate indices (TCI) are commonly used to describe the climate conditions suitable for tourism activities, from the planning, investment or daily operations perspectives. A substantial amount of research has been carried out, in particular with respect to new indices formulae adapted to specific tourism products, and parameters and their weighting, taking into account surveys on the stated preferences of tourists, especially in terms of comfort. This paper illustrates another field of research, which seeks to better understand the different sources of uncertainty associated with indices. Indeed, slight differences in formula thresholds, variations in computation methods, and also the use of multimodel ensembles create nuances that affect the ways in which indices projections are usually presented. Firstly, we assess the impact of differences in preference surveys on the definition of indices thresholds, in particular for thermal comfort. Secondly, we compare computation methods for France, showing the need to better specify detailed data sources and their use to ensure the comparability of results. Thirdly, using multimodel ensembles for the Mediterranean basin, we assess the uncertainty inherent in long-term projections, which are used in modelling the economic impact of climate change. This paper argues in favour of a more cautious use of tourism comfort indices, with more consideration given to the robustness of data (validation, debiasing, uncertainty assessment, etc.) and users’ needs, from the climate services perspective.This paper was written by a team participating in the EU FP7 project CLIM-RUN “Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding Users Needs” (2011–2014)

Building a better future: An exploration of beliefs about climate change and perceived need for adaptation within the building industry

Copyright © 2011 Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Building and Environment . Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Building and Environment Vol. 46 (2011), DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.12.007The present research explored beliefs about climate change among an important yet relatively understudied population: representatives of the building industry. We also assessed the perceived adequacy of current climate-related actions within the industry and the perceived need for developing new practices. The results of a survey administered within a large engineering firm suggest a fairly high level of concern about climate issues within this sector: participants perceived climate change to be an important issue, current practices to be inadequate, and a need to develop new ways of addressing climate change. Despite this, there was notable and consequential variability in how participants thought about climate change. Higher levels of seniority were associated with greater satisfaction with current practices, and the belief that climate change was a natural rather than man-made phenomena was associated with a reduced support for the idea that changes to current practices were necessary. In addition, when thinking about climate relevant actions (whether current practices or the alternatives) participants focussed almost exclusively on mitigation rather than adaptation. The implications of these patterns for innovation around climate change within the building industry are discussed.EPSR

Estimating Chikungunya prevalence in La Réunion Island outbreak by serosurveys: Two methods for two critical times of the epidemic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused a major two-wave seventeen-month-long outbreak in La Réunion Island in 2005–2006. The aim of this study was to refine clinical estimates provided by a regional surveillance-system using a two-stage serological assessment as gold standard.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two serosurveys were implemented: first, a rapid survey using stored sera of pregnant women, in order to assess the attack rate at the epidemic upsurge (s1, February 2006; n = 888); second, a population-based survey among a random sample of the community, to assess the herd immunity in the post-epidemic era (s2, October 2006; n = 2442). Sera were screened for anti-CHIKV specific antibodies (IgM and IgG in s1, IgG only in s2) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Seroprevalence rates were compared to clinical estimates of attack rates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In s1, 18.2% of the pregnant women were tested positive for CHIKV specific antibodies (13.8% for both IgM and IgG, 4.3% for IgM, 0.1% for IgG only) which provided a congruent estimate with the 16.5% attack rate calculated from the surveillance-system. In s2, the seroprevalence in community was estimated to 38.2% (95% CI, 35.9 to 40.6%). Extrapolations of seroprevalence rates led to estimate, at 143,000 and at 300,000 (95% CI, 283,000 to 320,000), the number of people infected in s1 and in s2, respectively. In comparison, the surveillance-system estimated at 130,000 and 266,000 the number of people infected for the same periods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A rapid serosurvey in pregnant women can be helpful to assess the attack rate when large seroprevalence studies cannot be done. On the other hand, a population-based serosurvey is useful to refine the estimate when clinical diagnosis underestimates it. Our findings give valuable insights to assess the herd immunity along the course of epidemics.</p

Drug safety of rosiglitazone and pioglitazone in France: a study using the French PharmacoVigilance database

International audienceBackgroundThiazolidinediones (TZDs), rosiglitazone (RGZ) and pioglitazone (PGZ) are widely used as hypoglycemic drugs in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The aim of our study was to investigate the profile of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) related to TZDs and to investigate potential risk factors of these ADRs.MethodsType 2 diabetic patients were identified from the French Database of PharmacoVigilance (FPVD) between 2002 and 2006. We investigated ADR related to TZD, focusing on 4 ADR: edema, heart failure, myocardial infarction and hepatitis corresponding to specific WHO-ART terms.ResultsAmong a total of 99,284 adult patients in the FPVD, 2295 reports concerned type 2 diabetic patients (2.3% of the whole database), with 161 (7%) exposed to TZDs. The frequency of edema and cardiac failure was significantly higher with TZDs than in other patients (18% and 7.4% versus 0.8% and 0.1% respectively, p ConclusionsThiazolidinediones exposure is associated with an increased risk of edema and heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes even when recommendations for use are respected. In contrast, the risk of hepatic reactions and myocardial infarction with this class of drugs seems to be similar to other hypoglycemic agents

Childhood lead exposure in France: benefit estimation and partial cost-benefit analysis of lead hazard control

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lead exposure remains a public health concern due to its serious adverse effects, such as cognitive and behavioral impairment: children younger than six years of age being the most vulnerable population. In Europe, the lead-related economic impacts have not been examined in detail. We estimate the annual costs in France due to childhood exposure and, through a cost benefit analysis (CBA), aim to assess the expected social and economic benefits of exposure abatement.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Monetary benefits were assessed in terms of avoided national costs. We used results from a 2008 survey on blood-lead (B-Pb) concentrations in French children aged one to six years old. Given the absence of a threshold concentration being established, we performed a sensitivity analysis assuming different hypothetical threshold values for toxicity above 15 μg/L, 24 μg/L and 100 μg/L. Adverse health outcomes of lead exposure were translated into social burden and economic costs based on literature data from literature. Direct health benefits, social benefits and intangible avoided costs were included. Costs of pollutant exposure control were partially estimated in regard to homes lead-based paint decontamination, investments aiming at reducing industrial lead emissions and removal of all lead drinking water pipes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The following overall annual benefits for the three hypothetical thresholds values in 2008 are: €22.72 billion, €10.72 billion and €0.44 billion, respectively. Costs from abatement ranged from €0.9 billion to 2.95 billion/year. Finally, from a partial CBA of lead control in soils and dust the estimates of total net benefits were € 3.78 billion, € 1.88 billion and €0.25 billion respectively for the three hypothesized B-Pb effect values.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Prevention of childhood lead exposure has a high social benefit, due to reduction of B-Pb concentrations to levels below 15 μg/L or 24 μg/L, respectively. Reducing only exposures above 100 μg/L B-Pb has little economic impact due to the small number of children who now exhibit such high exposure levels. Prudent public policies would help avoiding future medical interventions, limit the need for special education and increase future productivity, and hence lifetime income for children exposed to lead.</p

The CONSTANCES cohort: an open epidemiological laboratory

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prospective cohorts represent an essential design for epidemiological studies and allow for the study of the combined effects of lifestyle, environment, genetic predisposition, and other risk factors on a large variety of disease endpoints. The CONSTANCES cohort is intended to provide public health information and to serve as an "open epidemiologic laboratory" accessible to the epidemiologic research community. Although designed as a "general-purpose" cohort with very broad coverage, it will particularly focus on occupational and social determinants of health, and on aging.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The CONSTANCES cohort is designed as a randomly selected representative sample of French adults aged 18-69 years at inception; 200,000 subjects will be included over a five-year period. At inclusion, the selected subjects will be invited to fill a questionnaire and to attend a Health Screening Center (HSC) for a comprehensive health examination: weight, height, blood pressure, electrocardiogram, vision, auditory, spirometry, and biological parameters; for those aged 45 years and older, a specific work-up of functional, physical, and cognitive capacities will be performed. A biobank will be set up. The follow-up includes a yearly self-administered questionnaire, and a periodic visit to an HSC. Social and work-related events and health data will be collected from the French national retirement, health and death databases. The data that will be collected include social and demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, life events, behaviors, and occupational factors. The health data will cover a wide spectrum: self-reported health scales, reported prevalent and incident diseases, long-term chronic diseases and hospitalizations, sick-leaves, handicaps, limitations, disabilities and injuries, healthcare utilization and services provided, and causes of death.</p> <p>To take into account non-participation at inclusion and attrition throughout the longitudinal follow-up, a cohort of non-participants will be set up and followed through the same national databases as participants.</p> <p>A field-pilot was performed in 2010 in seven HSCs, which included about 3,500 subjects; it showed a satisfactory structure of the sample and a good validity of the collected data.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The constitution of the full eligible sample is planned during the last trimester of 2010, and the cohort will be launched at the beginning of 2011.</p

The position of mefloquine as a 21st century malaria chemoprophylaxis

BACKGROUND: Malaria chemoprophylaxis prevents the occurrence of the symptoms of malaria. Travellers to high-risk Plasmodium falciparum endemic areas need an effective chemoprophylaxis. METHODS: A literature search to update the status of mefloquine as a malaria chemoprophylaxis. RESULTS: Except for clearly defined regions with multi-drug resistance, mefloquine is effective against the blood stages of all human malaria species, including the recently recognized fifth species, Plasmodium knowlesi. New data were found in the literature on the tolerarability of mefloquine and the use of this medication by groups at high risk of malaria. DISCUSSION: Use of mefloquine for pregnant women in the second and third trimester is sanctioned by the WHO and some authorities (CDC) allow the use of mefloquine even in the first trimester. Inadvertent pregnancy while using mefloquine is not considered grounds for pregnancy termination. Mefloquine chemoprophylaxis is allowed during breast-feeding. Studies show that mefloquine is a good option for other high-risk groups, such as long-term travellers, VFR travellers and families with small children. Despite a negative media perception, large pharmaco-epidemiological studies have shown that serious adverse events are rare. A recent US evaluation of serious events (hospitalization data) found no association between mefloquine prescriptions and serious adverse events across a wide range of outcomes including mental disorders and diseases of the nervous system. As part of an in-depth analysis of mefloquine tolerability, a potential trend for increased propensity for neuropsychiatric adverse events in women was identified in a number of published clinical studies. This trend is corroborated by several cohort studies that identified female sex and low body weight as risk factors. CONCLUSION: The choice of anti-malarial drug should be an evidence-based decision that considers the profile of the individual traveller and the risk of malaria. Mefloquine is an important, first-line anti-malarial drug but it is crucial for prescribers to screen medical histories and inform mefloquine users of potential adverse events. Careful prescribing and observance of contraindications are essential. For some indications, there is currently no replacement for mefloquine available or in the pipeline