Measuring and modelling concurrency

This article explores three critical topics discussed in the recent debate over concurrency (overlapping sexual partnerships): measurement of the prevalence of concurrency, mathematical modelling of concurrency and HIV epidemic dynamics, and measuring the correlation between HIV and concurrency. The focus of the article is the concurrency hypothesis – the proposition that presumed high prevalence of concurrency explains sub-Saharan Africa's exceptionally high HIV prevalence. Recent surveys using improved questionnaire design show reported concurrency ranging from 0.8% to 7.6% in the region. Even after adjusting for plausible levels of reporting errors, appropriately parameterized sexual network models of HIV epidemics do not generate sustainable epidemic trajectories (avoid epidemic extinction) at levels of concurrency found in recent surveys in sub-Saharan Africa. Efforts to support the concurrency hypothesis with a statistical correlation between HIV incidence and concurrency prevalence are not yet successful. Two decades of efforts to find evidence in support of the concurrency hypothesis have failed to build a convincing case

Evaluating quality of obstetric care in low-resource settings: Building on the literature to design tailor-made evaluation instruments - an illustration in Burkina Faso

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are many instruments available freely for evaluating obstetric care quality in low-resource settings. However, this profusion can be confusing; moreover, evaluation instruments need to be adapted to local issues. In this article, we present tools we developed to guide the choice of instruments and describe how we used them in Burkina Faso to facilitate the participative development of a locally adapted instrument.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Based on a literature review, we developed two tools: a conceptual framework and an analysis grid of existing evaluation instruments. Subsequently, we facilitated several sessions with evaluation stakeholders in Burkina Faso. They used the tools to develop a locally adapted evaluation instrument that was subsequently tested in six healthcare facilities.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three outputs emerged from this process:</p> <p>1) A comprehensive conceptual framework for the quality of obstetric care, each component of which is a potential criterion for evaluation.</p> <p>2) A grid analyzing 37 instruments for evaluating the quality of obstetric care in low-resource settings. We highlight their key characteristics and describe how the grid can be used to prepare a new evaluation.</p> <p>3) An evaluation instrument adapted to Burkina Faso. We describe the experience of the Burkinabé stakeholders in developing this instrument using the conceptual framework and the analysis grid, while taking into account local realities.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This experience demonstrates how drawing upon existing instruments can inspire and rationalize the process of developing a new, tailor-made instrument. Two tools that came out of this experience can be useful to other teams: a conceptual framework for the quality of obstetric care and an analysis grid of existing evaluation instruments. These provide an easily accessible synthesis of the literature and are useful in integrating it with the context-specific knowledge of local actors, resulting in evaluation instruments that have both scientific and local legitimacy.</p

Malnutrition in young children of rural Burkina Faso: comparison of survey data from 1999 with 2009.

OBJECTIVE: For measurement of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1, reliable data on nutrition indicators of specific countries are essential. Malnutrition is also the main determinant for childhood mortality, which is addressed in MDG 4. METHODS: In the health and demographic surveillance area of Kossi Province in north-western Burkina Faso, nutritional parameters were compared in two cohorts of young children of the same age range from eight villages. Surveys took place in June and December of the year 1999 and 2009. A multivariate model was used to control for confounding variables. RESULTS: For the 1999 study, data were analysed for 179 and 197 children who took part in the June and December survey respectively. In 2009, corresponding data were analysed for 460 and 409 children. Prevalence of underweight was highest in December 1999 (42.6%) and lowest in December 2009 (34.1%). After adjustment for age, sex and village, there was a slight but not always significant improvement in the z-scores of weight-for-age, weight-for-length, length-for-age, and mid-arm circumference over time. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study confirm the still unacceptable high prevalence of malnutrition in young children of rural sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Progress in the reduction of malnutrition remains slow on this continent making it rather unlikely that the corresponding MDGs will be achieved. Large-scale multi-sectoral community-based interventions are urgently needed for a sustainable improvement of child health in SSA

The epidemiology of pregnancy outcomes in rural Burkina Faso.

OBJECTIVES: To describe levels and causes of pregnancy-related mortality and selected outcomes after pregnancy (OAP) in two districts of Burkina Faso. METHODS: A household census was conducted in the two study districts, recording household deaths to women aged 12-49 years from 2001 to 2006. Questions on pregnancy outcomes in the last 5 years for resident women of reproductive age were included, and an additional method - direct sisterhood - was added in part of the area. Adult female deaths were followed-up with verbal autopsies (VA) with household members. A probabilistic model for interpreting VA data (InterVA-M) was used to determine distributions of probable causes of death. An OAP survey was conducted among all women with an experience of pregnancy during the prior 12 months. It aimed to document physical and psychological disabilities, economic and social consequences and discomfort that women may suffer as a result of a pregnancy. RESULTS: The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was 441 per 100 000 live births (95% CI: 397, 485), significantly higher in Diapaga [519 per 100 000 (95% CI: 454, 584)] than Ouargaye [353 per 100 000 (95% CI: 295, 411)]. MMRs were associated with wealth quintile, age and distance from a health facility. The causes of death showed higher than expected rates of sepsis (30%) and lower rates of haemorrhage (7%). A substantial proportion of all women had difficulty performing day-to-day tasks as a consequence of pregnancy. Women who had experienced stillbirths or Caesarean sections reported symptom-related indicators of poor physical health more frequently than women reporting uncomplicated deliveries, and were also more likely to be depressed. CONCLUSIONS: Expectations on the levels and causes of pregnancy-related mortality in Burkina Faso may need to be re-examined, and this could have programmatic implications; for example high levels of sepsis could prompt renewed efforts to reach women with skilled attendance at delivery and follow-up during the postpartum period. Further documentation of how complication-induced disabilities affect women and their families is needed. For mortality and morbidity outcomes, demonstrating variation between study districts is important to empower local decision makers with evidence of need at a subnational level