The Invisible Thin Red Line

The aim of this paper is to argue that the adoption of an unrestricted principle of bivalence is compatible with a metaphysics that (i) denies that the future is real, (ii) adopts nomological indeterminism, and (iii) exploits a branching structure to provide a semantics for future contingent claims. To this end, we elaborate what we call Flow Fragmentalism, a view inspired by Kit Fine (2005)’s non-standard tense realism, according to which reality is divided up into maximally coherent collections of tensed facts. In this way, we show how to reconcile a genuinely A-theoretic branching-time model with the idea that there is a branch corresponding to the thin red line, that is, the branch that will turn out to be the actual future history of the world

Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic ( 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management

Basking sharks and oceanographic fronts: quantifying associations in the north-east Atlantic

Understanding the mechanisms linking oceanographic processes and marine vertebrate habitat use is critical to effective management of populations of conservation concern. The basking shark Cetorhinus maximus has been shown to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transitions between water masses – to exploit foraging opportunities resulting from aggregation of zooplankton. However, the scale, significance and variability of these observed associations have not yet been established. Here, we quantify the influence of mesoscale (10s – 100s km) frontal activity on habitat use over timescales of weeks to months. We use animal-mounted archival tracking with composite front mapping via Earth Observation (EO) remote sensing to provide an oceanographic context to individual shark movements. We investigate levels of association with fronts occurring over two spatio-temporal scales, (i) broad-scale seasonally persistent frontal zones and (ii) contemporaneous mesoscale thermal and chl-a fronts. Using random walk simulations and logistic regression within an iterative generalised linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework, we find that seasonal front frequency is a significant predictor of shark presence. Temporally-matched oceanographic metrics also indicate that sharks demonstrate a preference for productive regions, and associate with contemporaneous thermal and chl-a fronts more frequently than could be expected at random. Moreover, we highlight the importance of cross-frontal temperature change and persistence, which appear to interact to affect the degree of prey aggregation along thermal fronts. These insights have clear implications for understanding the preferred habitats of basking sharks in the context of anthropogenic threat management and marine spatial planning in the northeast Atlantic

Fine-scale population structure and connectivity of bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, in European waters and implications for conservation

Funding: Fyssen post-doctoral fellowship, Fondation Total, a bridge funding from the School of Biology of the University of St Andrews and People’s Trust for Endangered Species (ML).1. Protecting species often involves the designation of protected areas, wherein suitable management strategies are applied either at the taxon or ecosystem level. Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) have been created in European waters under the Habitats Directive to protect bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, which forms two ecotypes, pelagic and coastal. 2. The SACs have been designated in coastal waters based on photo‐identification studies that have indicated that bottlenose dolphins have relatively high site fidelity. However, individuals can carry out long‐distance movements, which suggests potential for demographic connectivity between the SACs as well as with other areas. 3. Connectivity can be studied using genetic markers. Previous studies on the species in this area used different sets of genetic markers and therefore inference on the fine‐scale population structure and demographic connectivity has not yet been made at a large scale. A common set of microsatellite markers was used in this study to provide the first comprehensive estimate of genetic structure of bottlenose dolphins in European Atlantic waters. 4. As in previous studies, a high level of genetic differentiation was found between coastal and pelagic populations. Genetic structure was defined at an unprecedented fine‐scale level for coastal dolphins, leading to identification of five distinct coastal populations inhabiting the following areas: Shannon estuary, west coast of Ireland, English Channel, coastal Galicia, east coast of Scotland and Wales/west Scotland. Demographic connectivity was very low among most populations with <10% migration rate, suggesting no demographic coupling among them. Each local population should therefore be monitored separately. 5. The results of this study have the potential to be used to identify management units for bottlenose dolphins in this region and thus offer a significant contribution to the conservation of the species in European Atlantic waters. Future studies should prioritize obtaining biopsies from free‐living dolphins from areas where only samples from stranded animals were available, i.e. Wales, west Scotland and Galicia, in order to reduce uncertainty caused by sample origin doubt, as well as from areas not included in this study (e.g. Iroise Sea, France). Furthermore, future management strategies should include monitoring local population dynamics and could also consider other options, such as population viability analysis or the incorporation of genetic data with ecological data (e.g. stable isotope analysis) in the designation of management units.PostprintPeer reviewe

Polypyrrole-Fe2O3 nanohybrid materials for electrochemical storage

We report on the synthesis and electrochemical characterization of nanohybrid polypyrrole (PPy) (PPy/Fe2O3) materials for electrochemical storage applications. We have shown that the incorporation of nanoparticles inside the PPy notably increases the charge storage capability in comparison to the “pure” conducting polymer. Incorporation of large anions, i.e., paratoluenesulfonate, allows a further improvement in the capacity. These charge storage modifications have been attributed to the morphology of the composite in which the particle sizes and the specific surface area are modified with the incorporation of nanoparticles. High capacity and stability have been obtained in PC/NEt4BF4 (at 20 mV/s), i.e., 47 mAh/g, with only a 3% charge loss after one thousand cyles. The kinetics of charge–discharge is also improved by the hybrid nanocomposite morphology modifications, which increase the rate of insertion–expulsion of counter anions in the bulk of the film. A room temperature ionic liquid such as imidazolium trifluoromethanesulfonimide seems to be a promising electrolyte because it further increases the capacity up to 53 mAh/g with a high stability during charge–discharge processes

Evidence for distinct coastal and offshore communities of bottlenose dolphins in the north east Atlantic.

Bottlenose dolphin stock structure in the northeast Atlantic remains poorly understood. However, fine scale photo-id data have shown that populations can comprise multiple overlapping social communities. These social communities form structural elements of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) [corrected] populations, reflecting specific ecological and behavioural adaptations to local habitats. We investigated the social structure of bottlenose dolphins in the waters of northwest Ireland and present evidence for distinct inshore and offshore social communities. Individuals of the inshore community had a coastal distribution restricted to waters within 3 km from shore. These animals exhibited a cohesive, fission-fusion social organisation, with repeated resightings within the research area, within a larger coastal home range. The offshore community comprised one or more distinct groups, found significantly further offshore (>4 km) than the inshore animals. In addition, dorsal fin scarring patterns differed significantly between inshore and offshore communities with individuals of the offshore community having more distinctly marked dorsal fins. Specifically, almost half of the individuals in the offshore community (48%) had characteristic stereotyped damage to the tip of the dorsal fin, rarely recorded in the inshore community (7%). We propose that this characteristic is likely due to interactions with pelagic fisheries. Social segregation and scarring differences found here indicate that the distinct communities are likely to be spatially and behaviourally segregated. Together with recent genetic evidence of distinct offshore and coastal population structures, this provides evidence for bottlenose dolphin inshore/offshore community differentiation in the northeast Atlantic. We recommend that social communities should be considered as fundamental units for the management and conservation of bottlenose dolphins and their habitat specialisations

Neurofibromin Deficient Myeloid Cells are Critical Mediators of Aneurysm Formation In Vivo

Background Neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1) is a genetic disorder resulting from mutations in the NF1 tumor suppressor gene. Neurofibromin, the protein product of NF1, functions as a negative regulator of Ras activity in circulating hematopoietic and vascular wall cells, which are critical for maintaining vessel wall homeostasis. NF1 patients have evidence of chronic inflammation resulting in development of premature cardiovascular disease, including arterial aneurysms, which may manifest as sudden death. However, the molecular pathogenesis of NF1 aneurysm formation is unknown. Method and Results Utilizing an angiotensin II-induced aneurysm model, we demonstrate that heterozygous inactivation of Nf1 (Nf1+/−) enhanced aneurysm formation with myeloid cell infiltration and increased oxidative stress in the vessel wall. Using lineage-restricted transgenic mice, we show loss of a single Nf1 allele in myeloid cells is sufficient to recapitulate the Nf1+/− aneurysm phenotype in vivo. Finally, oral administration of simvastatin or the antioxidant apocynin, reduced aneurysm formation in Nf1+/− mice. Conclusion These data provide genetic and pharmacologic evidence that Nf1+/− myeloid cells are the cellular triggers for aneurysm formation in a novel model of NF1 vasculopathy and provide a potential therapeutic target

Laughing at lunacy: othering and comic ambiguity in popular humour about mental distress

Jokes and humour about mental distress are said by anti-stigma campaigners to be no laughing matter. The article takes issue with this viewpoint arguing that this is clearly not the case since popular culture past and present has laughed at the antics of those perceived as ‘mad’. Drawing on past and present examples of the othering of insanity in jokes and humour the article incorporates a historical perspective on continuity and change in humour about madness/mental distress, which enables us to recognise that psychiatry is a funny-peculiar enterprise and its therapeutic practices in past times are deserving of funny ha-ha mockery and mirth in the present. By doing so, the article also argues that humour and mental distress illuminate how psychiatric definitions and popular representations conflict and that some psychiatric service users employ comic ambiguity to reflexively puncture their public image as ‘nuts’

Predicting the exposure of diving grey seals to shipping noise.

There is high spatial overlap between grey seals and shipping traffic, and the functional hearing range of grey seals indicates sensitivity to underwater noise emitted by ships. However, there is still very little data regarding the exposure of grey seals to shipping noise, constraining effective policy decisions. Particularly, there are few predictions that consider the at-sea movement of seals. Consequently, this study aimed to predict the exposure of adult grey seals and pups to shipping noise along a three-dimensional movement track, and assess the influence of shipping characteristics on sound exposure levels. Using ship location data, a ship source model, and the acoustic propagation model, RAMSurf, this study estimated weighted 24-h sound exposure levels (10-1000 Hz) (SELw). Median predicted 24-h SELw was 128 and 142 dB re 1 μPa2s for the pups and adults, respectively. The predicted exposure of seals to shipping noise did not exceed best evidence thresholds for temporary threshold shift. Exposure was mediated by the number of ships, ship source level, the distance between seals and ships, and the at-sea behaviour of the seals. The results can inform regulatory planning related to anthropogenic pressures on seal populations

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis