The application of multivariate cluster analysis in the assessment of volcanic social vulnerability

The 20th Century was characterized by increasing human population settlement in volcanically active regions of the world. This continued growth, particularly in less developed nations, has led to an increasing exposure of households and communities more predisposed to the social and physical risks a disaster could present. This thesis proposes a new methodology for the identification, targeting and assessment of these socially vulnerable communities. Drawing from specific examples of Mount Vesuvius (Italy) and Guagua Pichincha (Ecuador), multivariate statistics are applied to population census data to characterise the frailties and assumed coping capacity of different neighbourhood types to volcanic risk. Using cluster analysis and geodemographic discriminatory techniques, results show that communities more pre-disposed to the social and economic pressures of a disaster can be identified using this method. This approach looks to enhance upon current disaster risk metrics that tend to focus on single or cumulative risk scores, rather than seeking to define the behavioural traits and attitudinal perceptions of a neighbourhood. The peripheral and often informal barrios around Quito, Ecuador are shown to be highly susceptible to volcanic social vulnerability, whilst the Campania province around Vesuvius, Italy, highlights that the greatest risk to community resilience is associated with the high density settlements along the coastal towns near the volcano. The complex nature and site-specific characteristics of volcanic hazards, as well as the cultural landscape in which a volcanic eruption takes place are found to be key determinants in all aspects of disaster reduction. Vulnerability indicators, as defined in previous studies of disaster response are often independent of each other, and in many cases, non-transferrable in different cultural settings. Similarly, vulnerability and risk perception are as much a consequence of culture and state as they are of geographical setting and the physical characteristics of a volcanic eruption. Whilst caution is advised on the application and treatment of vulnerability metrics for mitigation, examples are provided as to how a neighbourhood classification systems methodology can be practically applied for disaster risk reduction. The output of this thesis is proposed as being of direct use to disaster risk managers (DRM), civil authorities and NGOs as an alternative tool in community outreach, exposure management, disaster mitigation and disaster preparedness plans. The contribution is also discussed in the wider context of disaster risk reduction measures, recent conceptual frameworks, and ongoing global initiatives such as the United Nations’ Hyogo Framework for Action and its intended replacement, HFA2

The application of multivariate cluster analysis in the assessment of volcanic social vulnerability

The 20th Century was characterized by increasing human population settlement in volcanically active regions of the world. This continued growth, particularly in less developed nations, has led to an increasing exposure of households and communities more predisposed to the social and physical risks a disaster could present. This thesis proposes a new methodology for the identification, targeting and assessment of these socially vulnerable communities. Drawing from specific examples of Mount Vesuvius (Italy) and Guagua Pichincha (Ecuador), multivariate statistics are applied to population census data to characterise the frailties and assumed coping capacity of different neighbourhood types to volcanic risk. Using cluster analysis and geodemographic discriminatory techniques, results show that communities more pre-disposed to the social and economic pressures of a disaster can be identified using this method. This approach looks to enhance upon current disaster risk metrics that tend to focus on single or cumulative risk scores, rather than seeking to define the behavioural traits and attitudinal perceptions of a neighbourhood. The peripheral and often informal barrios around Quito, Ecuador are shown to be highly susceptible to volcanic social vulnerability, whilst the Campania province around Vesuvius, Italy, highlights that the greatest risk to community resilience is associated with the high density settlements along the coastal towns near the volcano. The complex nature and site-specific characteristics of volcanic hazards, as well as the cultural landscape in which a volcanic eruption takes place are found to be key determinants in all aspects of disaster reduction. Vulnerability indicators, as defined in previous studies of disaster response are often independent of each other, and in many cases, non-transferrable in different cultural settings. Similarly, vulnerability and risk perception are as much a consequence of culture and state as they are of geographical setting and the physical characteristics of a volcanic eruption. Whilst caution is advised on the application and treatment of vulnerability metrics for mitigation, examples are provided as to how a neighbourhood classification systems methodology can be practically applied for disaster risk reduction. The output of this thesis is proposed as being of direct use to disaster risk managers (DRM), civil authorities and NGOs as an alternative tool in community outreach, exposure management, disaster mitigation and disaster preparedness plans. The contribution is also discussed in the wider context of disaster risk reduction measures, recent conceptual frameworks, and ongoing global initiatives such as the United Nations’ Hyogo Framework for Action and its intended replacement, HFA2

The acute transcriptional response to resistance exercise: impact of age and contraction mode

Optimization of resistance exercise (RE) remains a hotbed of research for muscle building and maintenance. However, the interactions between the contractile components of RE (i.e. concentric (CON) and eccentric (ECC)) and age, are poorly defined. We used transcriptomics to compare age-related molecular responses to acute CON and ECC exercise. Eight young (21±1 y) and eight older (70±1 y) exercise-naïve male volunteers had vastus lateralis biopsies collected at baseline and 5 h post unilateral CON and contralateral ECC exercise. RNA was subjected to next-generation sequencing and differentially expressed (DE) genes tested for pathway enrichment using Gene Ontology (GO). The young transcriptional response to CON and ECC was highly similar and older adults displayed moderate contraction-specific profiles, with no GO enrichment. Age-specific responses to ECC revealed 104 DE genes unique to young, and 170 DE genes in older muscle, with no GO enrichment. Following CON, 15 DE genes were young muscle-specific, whereas older muscle uniquely expressed 147 up-regulated genes enriched for cell adhesion and blood vessel development, and 28 down-regulated genes involved in mitochondrial respiration, amino acid and lipid metabolism. Thus, older age is associated with contraction-specific regulation often without clear functional relevance, perhaps reflecting a degree of stochastic age-related dysregulation.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.CSD was funded by a doctoral training studentship from Bournemouth University. This work was generously supported by the Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT105618MA). RMA is generously supported by the Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT105618MA) and an EPSRC/BBSRC Innovation Fellowship (EP/S001352/1). We acknowledge the Medical Research Council [grant number MR/P021220/1] [grant number MR/K00414X/1] and Arthritis Research UK [grant number 19891] as part of the MRC-ARUK Centre for Musculoskeletal Ageing Research awarded to the Universities of Nottingham and Birmingham, and the National Institute for Health Research, Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre. This work was supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [grant number BB/N015894/1]. This work was supported by a grant from the Swedish Research Council for Sport Science (dnr 2016/125 and dnr 2017/143). C.R.G.W is supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council-funded South West Biosciences Doctoral Training Partnership [BB/J014400/1; BB/M009122/1].Published versio

Elucidation of the relative and absolute stereochemistry of the kalimantacin/batumin antibiotics

A multidisciplinary approach combining natural product degradation, fragment synthesis, bioinformatics and NMR spectroscopy was used.</p

Diet-associated inflammation modulates inflammation and WNT signaling in the rectal mucosa, and the response to supplementation with dietary fiber

Inflammation drives colorectal cancer development, and colorectal cancer risk is influenced by dietary factors, including dietary fiber. Hyperactive WNT signaling occurs in colorectal cancer and may regulate inflammation. This study investigated (i) relationships between the inflammatory potential of diet, assessed using the Energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII), and markers of WNT signaling, and (ii) whether DII status modulated the response to supplementation with two types of dietary fiber. Seventy-five healthy participants were supplemented with resistant starch and/or polydextrose (PD) or placebo for 50 days. Rectal biopsies were collected before and after intervention and used to assess WNT pathway gene expression and crypt cell proliferation. E-DII scores were calculated from food frequency questionnaire data. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and fecal calprotectin concentrations were quantified. hsCRP concentration was significantly greater in participants with higher E-DII scores [least square means (LSM) 4.7 vs. 2.4 mg/L, P = 0.03]. Baseline E-DII score correlated with FOSL1 (b = 0.503, P = 0.003) and WNT11 (b = 0.472, P = 0.006) expression, after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, endoscopy procedure, and smoking status. WNT11 expression was more than 2-fold greater in individuals with higher E-DII scores (LSM 0.131 vs. 0.059, P = 0.002). Baseline E-DII modulated the effects of PD supplementation on FOSL1 expression (P = 0.04). More proinflammatory diets were associated with altered WNT signaling and appeared to modulate the effects of PD supplementation on expression of FOSL1. This is the first study to investigate relationships between the E-DII and molecular markers of WNT signaling in rectal tissue of healthy individuals

Transcriptomic links to muscle mass loss and declines in cumulative muscle protein synthesis during short-term disuse in healthy younger humans

Muscle disuse leads to a rapid decline in muscle mass, with reduced muscle protein synthesis (MPS) considered the primary physiological mechanism. Here, we employed a systems biology approach to uncover molecular networks and key molecular candidates that quantitatively link to the degree of muscle atrophy and/or extent of decline in MPS during short-term disuse in humans. After consuming a bolus dose of deuterium oxide (D2O; 3 mL.kg−1), eight healthy males (22 ± 2 years) underwent 4 days of unilateral lower-limb immobilization. Bilateral muscle biopsies were obtained post-intervention for RNA sequencing and D2O-derived measurement of MPS, with thigh lean mass quantified using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Application of weighted gene co-expression network analysis identified 15 distinct gene clusters (“modules”) with an expression profile regulated by disuse and/or quantitatively connected to disuse-induced muscle mass or MPS changes. Module scans for candidate targets established an experimentally tractable set of candidate regulatory molecules (242 hub genes, 31 transcriptional regulators) associated with disuse-induced maladaptation, many themselves potently tied to disuse-induced reductions in muscle mass and/or MPS and, therefore, strong physiologically relevant candidates. Notably, we implicate a putative role for muscle protein breakdown-related molecular networks in impairing MPS during short-term disuse, and further establish DEPTOR (a potent mTOR inhibitor) as a critical mechanistic candidate of disuse driven MPS suppression in humans. Overall, these findings offer a strong benchmark for accelerating mechanistic understanding of short-term muscle disuse atrophy that may help expedite development of therapeutic interventions

The marine soundscape of the Perth Canyon

The Perth Canyon is a submarine canyon off Rottnest Island in Western Australia. It is rich in biodiversity in general, and important as a feeding and resting ground for great whales on migration. Australia's Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) has moorings in the Perth Canyon monitoring its acoustical, physical and biological oceanography. Data from these moorings, as well as weather data from a near-by Bureau of Meteorology weather station on Rottnest Island and ship traffic data from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority were correlated to characterise and quantify the marine soundscape between 5 and 3000. Hz, consisting of its geophony, biophony and anthrophony. Overall, biological sources are a strong contributor to the soundscape at the IMOS site, with whales dominating seasonally at low (15-100. Hz) and mid frequencies (200-400. Hz), and fish or invertebrate choruses dominating at high frequencies (1800-2500. Hz) at night time throughout the year. Ships contribute significantly to the 8-100. Hz band at all times of the day, all year round, albeit for a few hours at a time only. Wind-dependent noise is significant at 200-3000. Hz; winter rains are audible underwater at 2000-3000. Hz. We discuss how passive acoustic data can be used as a proxy for ocean weather. Passive acoustics is an efficient way of monitoring animal visitation times and relative densities, and potential anthropogenic influences

Applying neighbourhood classification systems to natural hazards: a case study of Mt Vesuvius

The dynamic forces of urbanisation that characterised much of the 20th Century and still dominate population growth in developing countries have led to the increasing risk of natural hazards in cities around the world (Chester 2000, Pelling 2003). None of these physical dangers is more tangible than the threat volcanoes pose to the large populations living in close proximity. Vesuvius, a recognised decade volcano following the UN’s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) has an estimated 550,000 people that live in areas susceptible to Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDC) (Barberi 2008) and a further 4 million at risk from ash fallout around the sprawling suburbs of Naples. Though quiescent since 1944, the prospect of a large eruption of Vesuvius presents a greater geophysical threat to the Campania region of Italy than perhaps ever before. With the Neopolitan region at risk from such an event, this paper proposes a new methodology for creating a Social Vulnerability Index (SoVi) using geodemographic classification systems. In this study, Experian’s MOSAIC Italy database is combined with geophysical risk boundaries to assess the overall vulnerability of the population around Vesuvius

From Aberfan to the ‘Canvey Factor’: schools, children and industrial disasters

Children, and schools, are potent symbols of victimhood in industrial disasters. In the case of historical industrial disasters such as Aberfan and Flixborough, and in terms of preparation for future industrial disasters under Control of Major Accident Hazard regulations, communities are seen as passive responders to accidents. Moreover, following industrial accidents, communities are frequently accused of culpability or profiting from the disaster. There is hence a double pathologisation in play, with communities seen as comprising passive victims and manipulative survivors. Using an historical approach, the official accounts of the Aberfan and Flixborough industrial accidents are challenged with a focus on schools and children. Rather than being passive victims of these accidents, schools and children demonstrated agency in terms of their tacit knowledge, reporting potential accidents and recording their consequences. This provides a lens through which to interrogate current policy on industrial safety as it relates to schools and communities

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]