Definition of a temporal distribution index for high temporal resolution precipitation data over Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands: the fractal dimension; and its synoptic implications

Precipitation on the Spanish mainland and in the Balearic archipelago exhibits a high degree of spatial and temporal variability, regardless of the temporal resolution of the data considered. The fractal dimension indicates the property of self-similarity, and in the case of this study, wherein it is applied to the temporal behaviour of rainfall at a fine (10-min) resolution from a total of 48 observatories, it provides insights into its more or less convective nature. The methodology of Jenkinson & Collison which automatically classifies synoptic situations at the surface, as well as an adaptation of this methodology at 500 hPa, was applied in order to gain insights into the synoptic implications of extreme values of the fractal dimension. The highest fractal dimension values in the study area were observed in places with precipitation that has a more random behaviour over time with generally high totals. Four different regions in which the atmospheric mechanisms giving rise to precipitation at the surface differ from the corresponding above-ground mechanisms have been identified in the study area based on the fractal dimension. In the north of the Iberian Peninsula, high fractal dimension values are linked to a lower frequency of anticyclonic situations, whereas the opposite occurs in the central region. In the Mediterranean, higher fractal dimension values are associated with a higher frequency of the anticyclonic type and a lower frequency of the advective type from the east. In the south, lower fractal dimension values indicate higher frequency with respect to the anticyclonic type from the east and lower frequency with respect to the cyclonic type

Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Prediction of Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in General Practice Attendees: The PredictAL Study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women.Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78).Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse

T-cell recognition of chemicals, protein allergens and drugs: towards the development of in vitro assays

Chemicals can elicit T-cell-mediated diseases such as allergic contact dermatitis and adverse drug reactions. Therefore, testing of chemicals, drugs and protein allergens for hazard identification and risk assessment is essential in regulatory toxicology. The seventh amendment of the EU Cosmetics Directive now prohibits the testing of cosmetic ingredients in mice, guinea pigs and other animal species to assess their sensitizing potential. In addition, the EU Chemicals Directive REACh requires the retesting of more than 30,000 chemicals for different toxicological endpoints, including sensitization, requiring vast numbers of animals. Therefore, alternative methods are urgently needed to eventually replace animal testing. Here, we summarize the outcome of an expert meeting in Rome on 7 November 2009 on the development of T-cell-based in vitro assays as tools in immunotoxicology to identify hazardous chemicals and drugs. In addition, we provide an overview of the development of the field over the last two decades

Vibrational spectroscopy for the triage of traumatic brain injury computed tomography priority and hospital admissions

Computed tomography (CT) brain imaging is routinely used to support clinical decision-making in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Only 7% of scans, however, demonstrate evidence of TBI. The other 93% of scans contribute a significant cost to the healthcare system and a radiation risk to patients. There may be better strategies to identify which patients, particularly those with mild TBI, are at risk of deterioration and require hospital admission. We introduce a blood serum liquid biopsy that utilizes attenuated total reflectance (ATR)-Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy with machine learning algorithms as a decision-making tool to identify which patients with mild TBI will most likely present with a positive CT scan. Serum samples were obtained from patients (n = 298) patients who had acquired a TBI and were enrolled in CENTER-TBI and from asymptomatic control patients (n = 87). Injury patients (all severities) were stratified against non-injury controls. The cohort with mild TBI was further examined by stratifying those who had at least one CT abnormality against those who had no CT abnormalities. The test performed exceptionally well in classifications of patients with mild injury versus non-injury controls (sensitivity = 96.4% and specificity = 98.0%) and also provided a sensitivity of 80.2% when stratifying mild patients with at least one CT abnormality against those without. The results provided illustrate the test ability to identify four of every five CT abnormalities and show great promise to be introduced as a triage tool for CT priority in patients with mild TBI

Key Questions and Recent Research Advances on Harmful Algal Blooms in Stratified Systems

22 pages, 5 figuresThe GEOHAB Core Research Project (CRP) on HABs in Stratified Systems was a crosscutting project focused on the relevance of physical structure to fundamental life processes of harmful microorganisms such as growth (together with nutrient and light availability), reproduction, life cycle, and ecological interactions. Advances in this area have heavily depended on the development of innovative instruments to observe and adequately sample these environments, as well as on improvements in numerical modelling techniques (GEOHAB 2011, 2013; Berdalet et al. 2014). [...]Peer reviewe