Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information

Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding Type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing Type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure — most of which are highly uncertain — the societally relevant question is not “What will happen?” but rather “What is the impact of particular actions under an uncertain regional climate change?” This re-framing of the question can cut the Gordian Knot of regional climate-change information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties — something that is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the storyline approach to climate change — the identification of physically self-consistent, plausible pathways — has the potential to accomplish precisely this

Convective stability of carbon sequestration in anisotropic porous media

© 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. The stability of convection in an anisotropic porous medium, where the solute concentration is assumed to decay via a first-order chemical reaction, is studied. This is a simplified model for the interactions between carbon dioxide and brine in underground aquifers; the instability of which is essential in reducing reservoir mixing times. The key purpose of this paper is to explore the role porous media anisotropy plays in convective instabilities. It is shown that varying the ratio of horizontal to vertical solutal diffusivites does not significantly affect the behaviour of the instability. This is also the case for changes of permeability when the diffusion rate dominates the solute reaction rate. However, interestingly, when the solute reaction rate dominates the diffusion rate a change in the permeability of the porous material does have a substantial effect on the instability of the system. The region of potential subcritical instabilities is shown to be negligible, which further supports the novel instability behaviour

Projected changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C global-warming scenarios

In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable inter-model variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above pre-industrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming

Wheat seed weight and quality differ temporally in sensitivity to warm or cool conditions during seed development and maturation

Background and Aims Short periods of extreme temperature may affect wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) seed weight, but also quality. Temporal sensitivity to extreme temperature during seed development and maturation was investigated. Methods Plants of cv. Tybalt grown at ambient temperature were moved to growth cabinets at 29/20°C or 34/20°C (2010), or 15/10°C or 34/20°C (2011), for successive 7-d periods from 7 DAA (days after anthesis) onwards, and also 7-65 DAA in 2011. Seed samples were harvested serially and moisture content, weight, ability to germinate, subsequent longevity in air-dry storage, and bread-making quality determined. Key Results High temperature (34/20°C) reduced final seed weight, with greatest temporal sensitivity at 7-14 or 14-21 DAA. Several aspects of bread-making quality were also most sensitive to high temperature then, but whereas protein quality decreased protein and sulphur concentrations improved. Early exposure to high temperature provided earlier development of ability to germinate and tolerate desiccation, but had little effect on maximum germination capacity. All treatments at 15/10°C resulted in ability to germinate declining between 58 and 65 DAA. Early exposure to high temperature hastened improvement in seed storage longevity, but the subsequent decline in late maturation preceded that in the control. Long (7-65 DAA) exposure to 15/10°C disrupted the development of seed longevity, with no improvement after seed filling ended. Longevity improved during maturation drying in other treatments. Early (7-14 DAA) exposure to high reduced and low temperature increased subsequent longevity at harvest maturity, whereas late (35- or 42-49 DAA) exposure to high increased and low temperature reduced it. Conclusions Temporal sensitivity to extreme temperature was detected. It varied considerably amongst the contrasting seed variables investigated. Subsequent seed longevity at harvest maturity responded negatively to temperature early in development, but positively later in development and throughout maturation

Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to climate tipping

Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes increasingly precarious in the presence of noisy disturbances. We consider an underlying potential, as defined theoretically for a saddle-node fold and (via averaging) for a Hopf bifurcation. Close to a stable state, this potential has a parabolic form; but approaching a jump it becomes increasingly dominated by softening nonlinearities. If we have already detected a decrease in the linear decay rate, nonlinear information allows us to estimate the propensity for early tipping due to noise. We argue that one needs to extract information about the nonlinear features (a "softening") of the underlying potential from the time series to judge the probability and timing of tipping. This analysis is the logical next step if one has detected a decrease of the linear decay rate. If there is no discernable trend in the linear analysis, nonlinear softening is even more important in showing the proximity to tipping. After extensive normal form calibration studies, we check two geological time series from paleo-climate tipping events for softening of the underlying well. For the ending of the last ice age, where we find no convincing linear precursor, we identify a statistically significant nonlinear softening towards increasing temperature. The analysis has thus successfully detected a warning of the imminent tipping event.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, changed title back, corrected smaller mistakes, updated reference

Data sources for rescuing the rich heritage of Mediterranean historical surface climate data

10.1002/gdj3.4Availability of long-term and high-quality instrumental climate records is still insufficient and the rich heritage of meteorological surface observations is largely underexploited in many parts of the world. This is particularly striking over the Greater Mediterranean region (GMR), where meteorological observations have been taken since the 18th century at some locations. The lack of high quality and long series here is despite this region being regarded as a climate change hot spot. This article mainly assesses relevant sources containing Mediterranean historical climate data and metadata either from online repositories worldwide or physical archives, with the emphasis here on the rich holdings kept at French archives. A particular case study is the data rescue (DARE) program undertaken by the Algerian National Meteorological Service, as well as some of the past and ongoing projects and initiatives aimed at enhancing climate data availability and accessibility over the GMR. Our findings point to the high potential for undertaking DARE activities over the GMR and the need for bringing longer and higher quality climate time series to support a diverse number of scientific and technical assessments and policies

Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate

Unconstrained CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of "proven" and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Coal-fired power plants without sequestration must be phased out before mid-century to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also important to "stretch" conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era "beyond fossil fuels". We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves, and to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.Comment: (22 pages, 7 figures; final version accepted by Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Characterising half a degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

The Paris Agreement long term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This paper reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways