Linear and nonlinear time series analysis of the black hole candidate Cygnus X-1

We analyze the variability in the X-ray lightcurves of the black hole candidate Cygnus X-1 by linear and nonlinear time series analysis methods. While a linear model describes the over-all second order properties of the observed data well, surrogate data analysis reveals a significant deviation from linearity. We discuss the relation between shot noise models usually applied to analyze these data and linear stochastic autoregressive models. We debate statistical and interpretational issues of surrogate data testing for the present context. Finally, we suggest a combination of tools from linear andnonlinear time series analysis methods as a procedure to test the predictions of astrophysical models on observed data.Comment: 15 pages, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Detection of Phase Jumps of Free Core Nutation of the Earth and their Concurrence with Geomagnetic Jerks

We detected phase jumps of the Free Core Nutation (FCN) of the Earth directly from the analysis of the Very Long Baseline Interferometer (VLBI) observation of the Earth rotation for the period 1984-2003 by applying the Weighted Wavelet Z-Transform (WWZ) method and the Short-time Periodogram with the Gabor function (SPG) method. During the period, the FCN had two significant phase jumps in 1992 and 1998. These epochs coincide with the reported occurrence of geomagnetic jerks.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the eleventh generation

The eleventh generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) was adopted in December 2009 by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Working Group V-MOD. It updates the previous IGRF generation with a definitive main field model for epoch 2005.0, a main field model for epoch 2010.0, and a linear predictive secular variation model for 2010.0-2015.0. In this note the equations defining the IGRF model are provided along with the spherical harmonic coefficients for the eleventh generation. Maps of the magnetic declination, inclination and total intensity for epoch 2010.0 and their predicted rates of change for 2010.0-2015.0 are presented. The recent evolution of the South Atlantic Anomaly and magnetic pole positions are also examine

International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the eleventh generation

The eleventh generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF)was adopted in December 2009 by the International Association of Geomagnetism and AeronomyWorking Group V-MOD. It updates the previous IGRF generation with a definitive main field model for epoch 2005.0, a main field model for epoch 2010.0, and a linear predictive secular variation model for 2010.0–2015.0. In this note the equations defining the IGRF model are provided along with the spherical harmonic coefficients for the eleventh generation. Maps of the magnetic declination, inclination and total intensity for epoch 2010.0 and their predicted rates of change for 2010.0–2015.0 are presented. The recent evolution of the South Atlantic Anomaly and magnetic pole positions are also examined

Evaluation of candidate models for the 13th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field

In December 2019, the 13th revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) was released by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group V-MOD. This revision comprises two new spherical harmonic main field models for epochs 2015.0 (DGRF-2015) and 2020.0 (IGRF-2020) and a model of the predicted secular variation for the interval 2020.0 to 2025.0 (SV-2020-2025). The models were produced from candidates submitted by fifteen international teams. These teams were led by the British Geological Survey (UK), China Earthquake Administration (China), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain), University of Colorado Boulder (USA), Technical University of Denmark (Denmark), GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (Germany), Institut de physique du globe de Paris (France), Institut des Sciences de la Terre (France), Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (Russia), Kyoto University (Japan), University of Leeds (UK), Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (Germany), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (USA), University of Potsdam (Germany), and Université de Strasbourg (France). The candidate models were evaluated individually and compared to all other candidates as well to the mean, median and a robust Huber-weighted model of all candidates. These analyses were used to identify, for example, the variation between the Gauss coefficients or the geographical regions where the candidate models strongly differed. The majority of candidates were sufficiently close that the differences can be explained primarily by individual modeling methodologies and data selection strategies. None of the candidates were so different as to warrant their exclusion from the final IGRF-13. The IAGA V-MOD task force thus voted for two approaches: the median of the Gauss coefficients of the candidates for the DGRF-2015 and IGRF-2020 models and the robust Huber-weighted model for the predictive SV-2020-2025. In this paper, we document the evaluation of the candidate models and provide details of the approach used to derive the final IGRF-13 products. We also perform a retrospective analysis of the IGRF-12 SV candidates over their performance period (2015–2020). Our findings suggest that forecasting secular variation can benefit from combining physics-based core modeling with satellite observations

International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the thirteenth generation

In December 2019, the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group (V-MOD) adopted the thirteenth generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). This IGRF updates the previous generation with a definitive main field model for epoch 2015.0, a main field model for epoch 2020.0, and a predictive linear secular variation for 2020.0 to 2025.0. This letter provides the equations defining the IGRF, the spherical harmonic coefficients for this thirteenth generation model, maps of magnetic declination, inclination and total field intensity for the epoch 2020.0, and maps of their predicted rate of change for the 2020.0 to 2025.0 time period

The Internal Structure of Mercury's Core Inferred From Magnetic Observations

International audienc

Earth’s magnetic field is probably not reversing

The geomagnetic field has been decaying at a rate of ∼5% per century from at least 1840, with indirect observations suggesting a decay since 1600 or even earlier. This has led to the assertion that the geomagnetic field may be undergoing a reversal or an excursion. We have derived a model of the geomagnetic field spanning 30–50 ka, constructed to study the behavior of the two most recent excursions: the Laschamp and Mono Lake, centered at 41 and 34 ka, respectively. Here, we show that neither excursion demonstrates field evolution similar to current changes in the geomagnetic field. At earlier times, centered at 49 and 46 ka, the field is comparable to today’s field, with an intensity structure similar to today’s South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA); however, neither of these SAA-like fields develop into an excursion or reversal. This suggests that the current weakened field will also recover without an extreme event such as an excursion or reversal. The SAA-like field structure at 46 ka appears to be coeval with published increases in geomagnetically modulated beryllium and chlorine nuclide production, despite the global dipole field not weakening significantly in our model during this time. This agreement suggests a greater complexity in the relationship between cosmogenic nuclide production and the geomagnetic field than is commonly assumed