4,004 research outputs found
Exploring the phenomenology of clinical and non-clinical depression: a Q-methodological study
The lived experience of depression is taken as a starting point for this research which aims to document and explore the variety of experiences of depression among a diverse sample of participants who have been diagnosed with and/or self-report as having had an experience or experiences of depression, either currently or in the past. Using Q-methodology and drawing on social constructionism and existential-phenomenology (particularly the work of Kenneth Gergen, Rom HarrĂ© and Martin Heidegger), I ask the questions âHow do participants experience (clinical and non-clinical/self-identified) depression? How do participantsâ experiences resemble or differ from established psychiatric and clinical psychology accounts of depression and how might the findings be relevant to existential counselling psychology practice? There were two phases to this empirical study. Firstly, a preliminary focus group study was conducted using a âclinicalâ and a ânon-clinicalâ group and thematic analysis was used to analyse the data which provided information and materials for the development of the concourse of statements used in the main sorting task. Secondly, the main Q-methodological study required 46 participants to sort (online) a series of 58 experiential statements along a continuum âmost like me when Iâm depressedâ to âleast like me when Iâm depressed.â Nine of these statements were based upon the current DSM-5 diagnostic criteria for major depression. Principal componentâs factor analysis produced eight interpretable factors which represent eight different (but shared) experiences of depression as follows; 1) âClinicalâ/suicidal depression, 2) The âbluesâ/overcoming loss and bereavement, 3) Anxious/âanti-clinicalâ depression, 4) Emotionally devoid/isolated depression, 5) Sadness and loss/surviving depression, 6) Alienated/helpless depression, 7) The âbluesâ/surviving through self-reliance, 8) Loss of meaning/depression as part of the cycle of life. These different experiences are explicated in detail and in relation to the placement of the DSM diagnostic statements. Only one of the factors showed a strong similarity to the DSM criteria while all the other factors revealed experiences that may not be captured by those measures. The results are considered in relation to social constructionist critiques and existential-phenomenological philosophy. Finally, the relevance of the findings for existential-phenomenological counselling psychology practice is discussed
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The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems
The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking methodology to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Overall the results show that the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of skill than the NCEP EPS in the northern hemisphere (NH). However in the southern hemisphere (SH), NCEP has higher predictive skill than ECMWF for the intensity of the cyclones. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. Further analysis shows that the predicted propagation speed of cyclones is generally too slow for the ECMWF EPS and show a slight bias for the intensity of the cyclones to be overpredicted. This is also true for the NCEP EPS in the SH. For the NCEP EPS in the NH the intensity of the cyclones is underpredicted. There is small bias in both the EPS for the cyclones to be displaced towards the poles. For each ensemble forecast of each cyclone, the predictive skill of the ensemble member that best predicts the cyclones position and intensity was computed. The results are very encouraging showing that the predictive skill of the best ensemble member is significantly higher than that of the control forecast in terms of both the position and intensity of the cyclones. The prediction of cyclones before they are identified as 850 hPa vorticity centers in the analysis cycle was also considered. It is shown that an indication of extratropical cyclones can be given by at least 1 ensemble member 7 days before they are identified in the analysis. Further analysis of the ECMWF EPS shows that the ensemble mean has a higher level of skill than the control forecast, particularly for the intensity of the cyclones, 2 from day 3 of the forecast. There is a higher level of skill in the NH than the SH and the spread in the SH is correspondingly larger. The difference between the ensemble mean and spread is very small for the position of the cyclones, but the spread of the ensemble is smaller than the ensemble mean error for the intensity of the cyclones in both hemispheres. Results also show that the ECMWF control forecast has œ to 1 day more skill than the perturbed members, for both the position and intensity of the cyclones, throughout the forecast
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Characteristics and variability of storm tracks in the north Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska
The North Pacific and Bering Sea regions represent loci of cyclogenesis and storm track activity. In this paper climatological properties of extratropical storms in the North Pacific/Bering Sea are presented based upon aggregate statistics of individual storm tracks calculated by means of a feature-tracking algorithm run using NCEPâNCAR reanalysis data from 1948/49 to 2008, provided by the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Climate Diagnostics Center. Storm identification is based on the 850-hPa relative vorticity field (ζ) instead of the often-used mean sea level pressure; ζ is a prognostic field, a good indicator of synoptic-scale dynamics, and is directly related to the wind speed. Emphasis extends beyond winter to provide detailed consideration of all seasons.
Results show that the interseasonal variability is not as large during the spring and autumn seasons. Most of the storm variablesâgenesis, intensity, track densityâexhibited a maxima pattern that was oriented along a zonal axis. From season to season this axis underwent a northâsouth shift and, in some cases, a rotation to the northeast. This was determined to be a result of zonal heating variations and midtropospheric moisture patterns. Barotropic processes have an influence in shaping the downstream end of storm tracks and, together with the blocking influence of the coastal orography of northwest North America, result in high lysis concentrations, effectively making the Gulf of Alaska the âgraveyardâ of Pacific storms. Summer storms tended to be longest in duration. Temporal trends tended to be weak over the study area. SST did not emerge as a major cyclogenesis control in the Gulf of Alaska
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Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?
Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structureâthe warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusionâhave been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEMâs ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model
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An inter-comparison of Arctic synoptic scale storms between four global reanalysis datasets
The Arctic is becoming more accessible as sea ice extent continues to decline, resulting in higher human exposure to Arctic storms. This study compares Arctic storm characteristics between the ECMWF-Interim Reanalysis, 55-year Japanese Reanalysis, NASA-Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 and National Centre for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis datasets between 1980 and 2017, in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA). It is shown that Arctic storm characteristics are sensitive to the variable used for storm tracking. Arctic storm frequency is found to be similar in summer and winter when using sea level pressure minima to track Arctic storms, whereas, the storm frequency is found to be higher in winter than summer when using 850 hPa relative vorticity to track storms, based on using the same storm tracking algorithm. It is also found that there are no significant trends in Arctic storm characteristics between 1980 and 2017. Given the sparsity of observations in the Arctic, it might be expected that there are large differences in Arctic storm characteristics between the reanalysis datasets. Though, some similar Arctic storm characteristics are found between the reanalysis datasets, it is found that the differences in Arctic storm characteristics between the reanalysis datasets are generally higher in winter than in summer. Overall, the results show that there are differences in Arctic storm characteristics between reanalysis datasets, but even larger differences can arise between using 850 hPa relative vorticity or mean sea level pressure as the storm tracking variable, which adds to the uncertainty associated with current Arctic storm characteristics
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Can an ensemble climate simulation be used to separate climate change signals from natural variability?
The contribution of natural processes to climate change is explored using a 100-member ensemble climate simulation for the period 1850-2005. The ensemble simulation is based on the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology climate model, ECHAM6, where all members have been exposed to the identically same radiative forcing.
The range of global mean surface temperature warming over the 1850-2005 period, based on all members, is 0.65-1.10°C. The distribution of the global mean surface temperature about the ensemble mean has a distinct Gaussian distribution with an ensemble standard deviation (StD) of ~0.14°C which slowly decreases in time. Regionally, the largest decrease in the ensemble StD occurs in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Comparing the temporal StD with that from the observed HadCRUT4 surface temperature data indicates that the majority of the ensemble members have a larger temporal StD than the observations suggesting that the model simulations might overestimate the variance. This is supported by pronounced model responses to major volcanic eruptions that appear stronger in terms of the surface temperature response than in the observations.
There are clear random 20-year linear trends in global mean surface temperature anomalies as well as significant regional 50-year linear trends. Even with an ensemble mean warming trend, typical of the early 21st century, a global hiatus in temperature of 20 years duration is possible to occur by chance. The results support the view that observed decadal and multi-decadal anomalies in the 20th century were significantly influenced by internal processes of the climate system. This is particularly the case for the observed global warming trend of 1910-1940 and the global cooling trend of 1940-1970.
Global mean precipitation hardly increases with time in the ensemble simulations, but in agreement with theory regional changes occur, with increasing precipitation in polar regions and in some tropical areas. In the subtropics there are reductions in precipitation. Long-lasting regional anomalies of significant amplitudes occur by chance in the ensemble integration
How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?
Tropical Cyclones (TC) under different climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated with the Max Planck Institute (MPI) coupled (ECHAM5/MPIOM) and atmosphere (ECHAM5) climate models. The intensity and size of the TC depend crucially on resolution with higher wind speed and smaller scales at the higher resolutions. The typical size of the TC is reduced by a factor of 2.3 from T63 to T319 using the distance of the maximum wind speed from the centre of the storm as a measure. The full three dimensional structure of the storms becomes increasingly more realistic as the resolution is increased. For the T63 resolution, three ensemble runs are explored for the period 1860 until 2100 using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and evaluated for three 30 year periods at the end of the 19th, 20th and 21st century, respectively. While there is no significant change between the 19th and the 20th century, there is a considerable reduction in the number of the TC by some 20% in the 21st century, but no change in the number of the more intense storms. Reduction in the number of storms occurs in all regions. A single additional experiment at T213 resolution was run for the two latter 30-year periods. The T213 is an atmospheric only experiment using the transient Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) of the T63 resolution experiment. Also in this case, there is a reduction by some 10% in the number of simulated TC in the 21st century compared to the 20th century but a marked increase in the number of intense storms. The number of storms with maximum wind speeds greater than 50ms-1 increases by a third. Most of the intensification takes place in 2 the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic where also the number of storms more or less stays the same. We identify two competing processes effecting TC in a warmer climate. First, the increase in the static stability and the reduced vertical circulation is suggested to contribute to the reduction in the number of storms. Second, the increase in temperature and water vapor provide more energy for the storms so that when favorable conditions occur, the higher SST and higher specific humidity will contribute to more intense storms. As the maximum intensity depends crucially on resolution, this will require higher resolution to have its full effect. The distribution of storms between different regions does not, at first approximation, depend on the temperature itself but on the distribution of the SST anomalies and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. Two additional transient experiments at T319 resolution where run for 20 years at the end of the 20th and 21st century, respectively using the same conditions as in the T213 experiments. The results are consistent with the T213 study. The total number of tropical cyclones were similar to the T213 experiment but were generally more intense. The change from the 20th to the 21st century was also similar with fewer TC in total but with more intense cyclones
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The annual cycle of Northern Hemisphere storm-tracks. Part 2: regional detail
In Part 1 of this study, the annual cycle of the Northern Hemisphere storm-tracks was investigated using feature tracking and Eulerian variance based diagnostics applied on both vorticity and meridional wind. Results were presented and discussed for the four seasons at both upper (250hPa) and lower (850hPa) tropospheric levels. Here, using the meridional wind diagnostics, the annual cycles of the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm-tracks are examined in detail. This is done using monthly and 20° longitudinal sector averages. Many sectors have been considered, but the focus is on sectors equally spaced in the two main oceanic storm-tracks situated at their western, central and eastern regions, the western ones being mainly over the upstream continents.
The annual cycles of the upper and lower tropospheric storm-tracks in the central and eastern Pacific, and western and central Atlantic sectors all have rather similar structures. In amplitude, each sector at both levels has a summer minimum and a relatively uniform strength from October to April, despite the strong winter maxima in the westerly jets. However, high intensity storms occur over a much wider latitudinal band in winter. The storm-track in each sector moves poleward from May to August and returns equatorward from October to December, and there is a marked asymmetry between spring and autumn.
There are many differences between the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm-tracks, and some of these seem to have their origin in the behaviour over the upstream East Asian and North American continents, suggesting the importance of seeding from these regions. The East Asian storm-track near 48°N has marked spring and autumn maxima and weak amplitude in winter and summer. The 33°N track is strong only in the first half of the year. In contrast, the eastern North American storm-track is well-organised all year, around the baroclinicity that moves latitudinally with the seasons. The signatures associated with these features are found to gradually decrease downstream in each case. In particular, there is very little latitudinal movement in the storm-track in the Eastern Atlantic
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Prediction errors of tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific in the Met Office global forecast model
The prediction of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR) has been explored in the UK Met Office (UKMO) global forecasting system over a 10 year period at 0-7 day lead times. Both the high resolution deterministic and lower resolution ensemble systems have been considered. Location errors for verification against the observations are comparable for the deterministic, control and ensemble mean forecasts, however, the ensemble spread indicates the ensemble is under-dispersive. Intensity error metrics, for pressure and surface winds, show large biases relative to the observations, with the smallest biases for the deterministic system. For the intensity metrics the ensemble spread shows the ensemble is severely under-dispersive primarily due to the large errors relative to the observations. Verification against the analyses show similar results to verification against the observations for location. This is also the case for the intensities albeit with smaller errors and less under-dispersion. The PAR region has larger intensity errors and biases and larger intensity ensemble spread compared with the broader WNP region. Forecast errors for location and intensity have reduced significantly with system upgrades over the period studied (2008-2017) for the deterministic and ensemble systems. Intensity errors for the latest configuration of the deterministic system at day 4 are smaller than the initial errors of all the earlier configurations for both pressure and winds. The Madden-âJulian oscillation (MJO) and Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (BSISO) significantly affect the intensity forecast errors, but not the location errors. Intensity errors are lower at the initiation and for early lead times of the forecasts started in phases 6--7 and 7--8, when the MJO and BSISO are active in the WNP. These reduced errors appear to result mainly from the variations in intensity of the observed storms with MJO and BSISO phases, though the initial states of the forecasts are also affected. Over the studied period, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) deterministic and ensemble systems have lower errors and biases for both location and intensity than the UKMO forecast systems
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