Comparing the influence of sunspot activity and geomagnetic activity on winter surface climate

We compare here the effect of geomagnetic activity (using the aa index) and sunspot activity on surface climate using sea level pressure dataset from Hadley centre during northern winter. Previous studies using the multiple linear regression method have been limited to using sunspots as a solar activity predictor. Sunspots and total solar irradiance indicate a robust positive influence around the Aleutian Low. This is valid up to a lag of one year. However, geomagnetic activity yields a positive NAM pattern at high to polar latitudes and a positive signal around Azores High pressure region. Interestingly, while there is a positive signal around Azores High for a 2-year lag in sunspots, the strongest signal in this region is found for aa index at 1-year lag. There is also a weak but significant negative signature present around central Pacific for both sunspots and aa index. The combined influence of geomagnetic activity and Quasi Biannual Oscillation (QBO 30 hPa) produces a particularly strong response at mid to polar latitudes, much stronger than the combined influence of sunspots and QBO, which was mostly studied in previous studies so far. This signal is robust and insensitive to the selected time period during the last century. Our results provide a useful way for improving the prediction of winter weather at middle to high latitudes of the northern hemisphere

Transition to a weaker Sun: Changes in the solar atmosphere during the decay of the Modern Maximum

Context. The Sun experienced a period of unprecedented activity during the 20th century, now called the Modern Maximum (MM). The decay of the MM after its maximum in cycle 19 has changed the Sun, the heliosphere, and the planetary environments in many ways. However, studies disagree on whether this decay has proceeded synchronously in different solar parameters or not.Aims. One of the related key issues is if the relation between two long parameters of solar activity, the sunspot number and the solar 10.7 cm radio flux, has remained the same during this decay. A recent study argues that there is an inhomogeneity in the 10.7 cm radio flux in 1980, which leads to a step-like jump (“1980 jump”) in this relation. If true, this result would reduce the versatility of possible long-term studies of the Sun during the MM. Here we aim to show that the relation between sunspot number and 10.7 cm radio flux does indeed vary in time, not due to an inhomogeneous radio flux but due to physical changes in the solar atmosphere.Methods. We used radio flux measurements made in Japan at four different wavelengths, and studied their long-term relation with the sunspot number and the 10.7 cm radio flux during the decay of MM. We also used two other solar parameters, the MgII index and the number of solar active regions, in order to study the nature of the observed long-term changes in more detail.Results. We find that the 1980 jump is only the first of a series of 1–2-year “humps” that mainly occur during solar maxima. All five radio fluxes depict an increasing trend with respect to the sunspot number from the 1970s to 2010s. These results exclude the interpretation of the 1980 jump as an inhomogeneity in the 10.7 cm flux, and reestablish the 10.7 cm flux as a homogeneous measure of solar activity. The fluxes of the longer radio waves are found to increase with respect to the shorter waves, which suggests a long-term change in the solar radio spectrum. We also find that the MgII index of solar UV irradiance and the number of active regions also increased with respect to the sunspot number, further verifying the difference in the long-term evolution in chromospheric and photospheric parameters.Conclusions. Our results provide evidence for important structural changes in solar magnetic fields and the solar atmosphere during the decay of the MM, which have not been reliably documented so far. We also emphasize that the changing relation between the different (e.g., photospheric and chromospheric) solar parameters should be taken into account when using the sunspot number or any single parameter in long-term studies of solar activity

Predicting delay factors when chipping wood at forest roadside landings

Chipping of bulky biomass assortments at roadside landings is a common and costly step in the biomass-to-energy supply chain. This operation normally involves one chipping unit and one or several transport trucks working together for simultaneous chipping and chip transport to a terminal or end user. Reducing the delay factors in these operations is a relevant ambition for lowering supply costs. A method to estimate organizational delay based on: (1) the capacity ratio between the transport and the chipper, (2) the use of buffer storage, and (3) the number of transport units involved is suggested here. Other delays will also be present, and some of these may relate to the working conditions at the landing. A method to set a landing functionality index based on characteristics of the forest landing is also suggested. A total of 14 roadside chipping operations were assessed and the operators were interviewed to address the impact of machinery configuration and landing characteristics on machine utilization. At most sites, the chipper was the more productive part, and the chipper utilization was to a large extent limited by organizational delay. Still the utilization of the transport units varied between 37 and 97%, of which some 36% of the variation was explained by the landing functionality index. Knowledge from the work presented here should be a good starting point for improving biomass supply planning and supply chain configuration.acceptedVersio

Dynamics and Kinetic Roughening of Interfaces in Two-Dimensional Forced Wetting

We consider the dynamics and kinetic roughening of wetting fronts in the case of forced wetting driven by a constant mass flux into a 2D disordered medium. We employ a coarse-grained phase field model with local conservation of density, which has been developed earlier for spontaneous imbibition driven by a capillary forces. The forced flow creates interfaces that propagate at a constant average velocity. We first derive a linearized equation of motion for the interface fluctuations using projection methods. From this we extract a time-independent crossover length $\xi_\times$, which separates two regimes of dissipative behavior and governs the kinetic roughening of the interfaces by giving an upper cutoff for the extent of the fluctuations. By numerically integrating the phase field model, we find that the interfaces are superrough with a roughness exponent of $\chi = 1.35 \pm 0.05$, a growth exponent of $\beta = 0.50 \pm 0.02$, and $\xi_\times \sim v^{-1/2}$ as a function of the velocity. These results are in good agreement with recent experiments on Hele-Shaw cells. We also make a direct numerical comparison between the solutions of the full phase field model and the corresponding linearized interface equation. Good agreement is found in spatial correlations, while the temporal correlations in the two models are somewhat different.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Eur.Phys.J.

Anomalous Roughening in Experiments of Interfaces in Hele-Shaw Flows with Strong Quenched Disorder

We report experimental evidences of anomalous kinetic roughening in the stable displacement of an oil-air interface in a Hele-Shaw cell with strong quenched disorder. The disorder consists on a random modulation of the gap spacing transverse to the growth direction (tracks). We have performed experiments varying average interface velocity and gap spacing, and measured the scaling exponents. We have obtained beta=0.50, beta*=0.25, alpha=1.0, alpha_l=0.5, and z=2. When there is no fluid injection, the interface is driven solely by capillary forces, and a higher value of beta around beta=0.65 is measured. The presence of multiscaling and the particular morphology of the interfaces, characterized by high slopes that follow a L\'evy distribution, confirms the existence of anomalous scaling. From a detailed study of the motion of the oil--air interface we show that the anomaly is a consequence of different local velocities over tracks plus the coupling in the motion between neighboring tracks. The anomaly disappears at high interface velocities, weak capillary forces, or when the disorder is not sufficiently persistent in the growth direction. We have also observed the absence of scaling when the disorder is very strong or when a regular modulation of the gap spacing is introduced.Comment: 14 pages, 17 figure

Motion of flux transfer events: a test of the Cooling model

The simple model of reconnected field line motion developed by Cooling et al. (2001) has been used in several recent case studies to explain the motion of flux transfer events across the magnetopause. We examine 213 FTEs observed by all four Cluster spacecraft under a variety of IMF conditions between November 2002 and June 2003, when the spacecraft tetrahedron separation was ~5000 km. Observed velocities were calculated from multi-spacecraft timing analysis, and compared with the velocities predicted by the Cooling model in order to check the validity of the model. After excluding three categories of FTEs (events with poorly defined velocities, a significant velocity component out of the magnetopause surface, or a scale size of less than 5000 km), we were left with a sample of 118 events. 78% of these events were consistent in both direction of motion and speed with one of the two model de Hoffmann-Teller (dHT) velocities calculated from the Cooling model (to within 30° and a factor of two in the speed). We also examined the plasma signatures of several magnetosheath FTEs; the electron signatures confirm the hemisphere of connection indicated by the model in most cases. This indicates that although the model is a simple one, it is a useful tool for identifying the source regions of FTEs

Imbibition in Disordered Media

The physics of liquids in porous media gives rise to many interesting phenomena, including imbibition where a viscous fluid displaces a less viscous one. Here we discuss the theoretical and experimental progress made in recent years in this field. The emphasis is on an interfacial description, akin to the focus of a statistical physics approach. Coarse-grained equations of motion have been recently presented in the literature. These contain terms that take into account the pertinent features of imbibition: non-locality and the quenched noise that arises from the random environment, fluctuations of the fluid flow and capillary forces. The theoretical progress has highlighted the presence of intrinsic length-scales that invalidate scale invariance often assumed to be present in kinetic roughening processes such as that of a two-phase boundary in liquid penetration. Another important fact is that the macroscopic fluid flow, the kinetic roughening properties, and the effective noise in the problem are all coupled. Many possible deviations from simple scaling behaviour exist, and we outline the experimental evidence. Finally, prospects for further work, both theoretical and experimental, are discussed.Comment: Review article, to appear in Advances in Physics, 53 pages LaTe