Competing risk and heterogeneity of treatment effect in clinical trials

It has been demonstrated that patients enrolled in clinical trials frequently have a large degree of variation in their baseline risk for the outcome of interest. Thus, some have suggested that clinical trial results should routinely be stratified by outcome risk using risk models, since the summary results may otherwise be misleading. However, variation in competing risk is another dimension of risk heterogeneity that may also underlie treatment effect heterogeneity. Understanding the effects of competing risk heterogeneity may be especially important for pragmatic comparative effectiveness trials, which seek to include traditionally excluded patients, such as the elderly or complex patients with multiple comorbidities. Indeed, the observed effect of an intervention is dependent on the ratio of outcome risk to competing risk, and these risks – which may or may not be correlated – may vary considerably in patients enrolled in a trial. Further, the effects of competing risk on treatment effect heterogeneity can be amplified by even a small degree of treatment related harm. Stratification of trial results along both the competing and the outcome risk dimensions may be necessary if pragmatic comparative effectiveness trials are to provide the clinically useful information their advocates intend

Responses of marine benthic microalgae to elevated CO<inf>2</inf>

Increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are causing a rise in pCO2 concentrations in the ocean surface and lowering pH. To predict the effects of these changes, we need to improve our understanding of the responses of marine primary producers since these drive biogeochemical cycles and profoundly affect the structure and function of benthic habitats. The effects of increasing CO2 levels on the colonisation of artificial substrata by microalgal assemblages (periphyton) were examined across a CO2 gradient off the volcanic island of Vulcano (NE Sicily). We show that periphyton communities altered significantly as CO2 concentrations increased. CO2 enrichment caused significant increases in chlorophyll a concentrations and in diatom abundance although we did not detect any changes in cyanobacteria. SEM analysis revealed major shifts in diatom assemblage composition as CO2 levels increased. The responses of benthic microalgae to rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are likely to have significant ecological ramifications for coastal systems. © 2011 Springer-Verlag

Nile red fluorescence screening facilitating neutral lipid phenotype determination in budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and the fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe.

Investigation of yeast neutral lipid accumulation is important for biotechnology and also for modelling aberrant lipid metabolism in human disease. The Nile red (NR) method has been extensively utilised to determine lipid phenotypes of yeast cells via microscopic means. NR assays have been used to differentiate lipid accumulation and relative amounts of lipid in oleaginous species but have not been thoroughly validated for phenotype determination arising from genetic modification. A modified NR assay, first described by Sitepu et al. (J Microbiol Methods 91:321-328, 2012), was able to detect neutral lipid changes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae deletion mutants with sensitivity similar to more advanced methodology. We have also be able to, for the first time, successfully apply the NR assay to the well characterised fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe, an increasingly important organism in biotechnology. The described NR fluorescence assay is suitable for increased throughput and rapid screening of genetically modified strains in both the biotechnology industry and for modelling ectopic lipid production for a variety of human diseases. This ultimately negates the need for labour intensive and time consuming lipid analyses of samples that may not yield a desirable lipid phenotype, whilst genetic modifications impacting significantly on the cellular lipid phenotype can be further promoted for more in depth analyses

The Impact of Venous Thromboembolism on Risk of Death or Hemorrhage in Older Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND: Among older cancer patients, there is uncertainty about the degree to which venous thromboembolism (VTE) and its treatment increase the risk of death or major hemorrhage. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of VTE in a cohort of older cancer patients, as well as the degree to which VTE increased the risk of death or major hemorrhage. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry and Medicare administrative claims data. Patients with any of ten invasive cancers diagnosed during 1995 through 1999 were included; the independent variable was VTE diagnosed concomitantly with cancer diagnosis. Outcomes included major hemorrhage during the first year after cancer diagnosis and all-cause mortality; RESULTS: Overall, about 1% of patients who were diagnosed with cancer also had a VTE diagnosed concomitantly. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors and cancer stage and grade, concomitant VTE was associated with a relative increase in the risk of death for 8 of the 10 cancer types; the increase in risk tended to range 20–40% across most cancer types. Approximately 16.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 14.9–18.8%) of patients with a concomitant VTE and 7.9% (95% CI 7.7–8.0%) of patients without a VTE experienced a major hemorrhage during the year after cancer diagnosis (P value <.001). The excess risk of hemorrhage associated with VTE varied substantially across cancer types, ranging from no significant excess (kidney and uterine cancer) to 11.5% (lymphoma). CONCLUSION: Concomitant VTE is not only a marker and potential mediator of increased risk of death among older cancer patients, but patients with a VTE have a marked increased risk of major hemorrhage

The activation of eco-driving mental models: can text messages prime drivers to use their existing knowledge and skills?

Eco-driving campaigns have traditionally assumed that drivers lack the necessary knowledge and skills and that this is something that needs rectifying. Therefore, many support systems have been designed to closely guide drivers and fine-tune their proficiency. However, research suggests that drivers already possess a substantial amount of the necessary knowledge and skills regarding eco-driving. In previous studies, participants used these effectively when they were explicitly asked to drive fuel-efficiently. In contrast, they used their safe driving skills when they were instructed to drive as they would normally. Hence, it is assumed that many drivers choose not to engage purposefully in eco-driving in their everyday lives. The aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of simple, periodic text messages (nine messages in 2 weeks) on drivers’ eco- and safe driving performance. It was hypothesised that provision of eco-driving primes and advice would encourage the activation of their eco-driving mental models and that comparable safety primes increase driving safety. For this purpose, a driving simulator experiment was conducted. All participants performed a pre-test drive and were then randomly divided into four groups, which received different interventions. For a period of 2 weeks, one group received text messages with eco-driving primes and another group received safety primes. A third group received advice messages on how to eco-drive. The fourth group were instructed by the experimenter to drive fuel-efficiently, immediately before driving, with no text message intervention. A post-test drive measured behavioural changes in scenarios deemed relevant to eco- and safe driving. The results suggest that the eco-driving prime and advice text messages did not have the desired effect. In comparison, asking drivers to drive fuel-efficiently led to eco-driving behaviours. These outcomes demonstrate the difficulty in changing ingrained habits. Future research is needed to strengthen such messages or activate existing knowledge and skills in other ways, so driver behaviour can be changed in cost-efficient ways

Health burden and economic impact of measles-related hospitalizations in Italy in 2002–2003

Background: A large measles outbreak occurred in Italy in 2002 - 2003. This study evaluates the health burden and economic impact of measles- related hospitalizations in Italy during the specified period. Methods: Hospital discharge abstract data for measles hospitalizations in Italy during 2002 - 2003 were analysed to obtain information regarding number and rates of measles hospitalizations by geographical area and age group, length of hospital stay, and complications. Hospitalization costs were estimated on the basis of Diagnosis- Related Groups. Results: A total of 5,154 hospitalizations were identified, 3,478 ( 67%) of which occurred in children < 15 years of age. Most hospitalizations occurred in southern Italy ( 71 %) and children below 1 year of age presented the greatest hospitalization rates ( 46.2/ 100,000 and 19.0/ 100,000, respectively in 2002 and 2003). Pneumonia was diagnosed in 594 cases ( 11.5%) and encephalitis in 138 cases ( 2.7%). Total hospital charges were approximately (sic) 8.8 million. Conclusion: The nationwide health burden associated with measles during the 2002 - 2003 outbreak was substantial and a high cost was incurred by the Italian National Health Service for the thousands of measles- related hospitalizations which occurred. By assuming that hospital costs represent 40 - 50% of the direct costs of measles cases, direct costs of measles for the two years combined were estimated to be between (sic)17.6 - 22.0 million, which equates to the vaccination of 1.5 - 1.9 million children ( 3 - 4 birth cohorts) with one dose of MMR. The high cost of measles and the severity of its complications fully justify the commitment required to reach measles elimination

Knowledge and cognitive integration

Cognitive integration is a defining yet overlooked feature of our intellect that may nevertheless have substantial effects on the process of knowledge-acquisition. To bring those effects to the fore, I explore the topic of cognitive integration both from the perspective of virtue reliabilism within externalist epistemology and the perspective of extended cognition within externalist philosophy of mind and cognitive science. On the basis of this interdisciplinary focus, I argue that cognitive integration can provide a minimalist yet adequate epistemic norm of subjective justification: so long as the agent’s belief-forming process has been integrated in his cognitive character, the agent can be justified in holding the resulting beliefs merely by lacking any doubts there was something wrong in the way he arrived at them. Moreover, since both externalist philosophy of mind and externalist epistemology treat the process of cognitive integration in the same way, we can claim that epistemic cognitive characters may extend beyond our organismic cognitive capacities to the artifacts we employ or even to other agents we interact with. This move is not only necessary for accounting for advanced cases of knowledge that is the product of the operation of epistemic artifacts or the interactive activity of research teams, but it can further lead to interesting ramifications both for social epistemology and philosophy of scienc

Decreased thermal tolerance under recurrent heat stress conditions explains summer mass mortality of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis

Extreme events such as heat waves have increased in frequency and duration over the last decades. Under future climate scenarios, these discrete climatic events are expected to become even more recurrent and severe. Heat waves are particularly important on rocky intertidal shores, one of the most thermally variable and stressful habitats on the planet. Intertidal mussels, such as the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, are ecosystem engineers of global ecological and economic importance, that occasionally suffer mass mortalities. This study investigates the potential causes and consequences of a mass mortality event of M. edulis that occurred along the French coast of the eastern English Channel in summer 2018. We used an integrative, climatological and ecophysiological methodology based on three complementary approaches. We first showed that the observed mass mortality (representing 49 to 59% of the annual commercial value of local recreational and professional fisheries combined) occurred under relatively moderate heat wave conditions. This result indicates that M. edulis body temperature is controlled by non-climatic heat sources instead of climatic heat sources, as previously reported for intertidal gastropods. Using biomimetic loggers (i.e. 'robomussels'), we identified four periods of 5 to 6 consecutive days when M. edulis body temperatures consistently reached more than 30 °C, and occasionally more than 35 °C and even more than 40 °C. We subsequently reproduced these body temperature patterns in the laboratory to infer M. edulis thermal tolerance under conditions of repeated heat stress. We found that thermal tolerance consistently decreased with the number of successive daily exposures. These results are discussed in the context of an era of global change where heat events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency, especially in the eastern English Channel where the low frequency of commercially exploitable mussels already questions both their ecological and commercial sustainability.Funding Agency French Ministere de l'Enseignement Superieur et de la Recherche Region Hauts-de-France European Funds for Regional Economical Development Pierre Hubert Curien PESSOA Felloswhip Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT-MEC, Portugal) IF/01413/2014/CP1217/CT0004 National Research Foundation - South Africa 64801 South African Research Chairs Initiative (SARChI) of the Department of Science and Technology National Research Foundation - South Africainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Repeated successful surgical rescues of early and delayed multiple ruptures of ventricular septum, right ventricle and aneurysmal left ventricle following massive biventricular infarction

A 58 year old man underwent 6 surgical interventions for various complications of massive biventricular myocardial infarction over a period of 2 years following acute occlusion of a possibly "hyperdominant" left anterior descending coronary artery. These included concomitant repair of apicoanterior post-infarction VSD and right ventricular free wall rupture, repeat repair of recurrent VSD following inferoposterior extension of VSD in the infarcted septum 5 weeks later, repair of delayed right ventricular free wall rupture 4 weeks subsequently, repair of a bleeding left ventricular aneurysm eroding through left chest wall 16 months thereafter, repair of right upper lobe lung tear causing massive anterior mediastinal haemorrhage, mimicking yet another cardiac rupture, 2 months later, followed, at the same admission, 2 weeks later, by sternal reconstruction for dehisced and infected sternum using pedicled myocutaneous latissimus dorsi flap. 5 years after the latissimus myoplasty, the patient remains in NYHA class 1 and is leading a normal life

The importance of Antarctic krill in biogeochemical cycles

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are swarming, oceanic crustaceans, up to two inches long, and best known as prey for whales and penguins – but they have another important role. With their large size, high biomass and daily vertical migrations they transport and transform essential nutrients, stimulate primary productivity and influence the carbon sink. Antarctic krill are also fished by the Southern Ocean’s largest fishery. Yet how krill fishing impacts nutrient fertilisation and the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean is poorly understood. Our synthesis shows fishery management should consider the influential biogeochemical role of both adult and larval Antarctic krill