A General Event Location Algorithm with Applications to Eclispe and Station Line-of-Sight

A general-purpose algorithm for the detection and location of orbital events is developed. The proposed algorithm reduces the problem to a global root-finding problem by mapping events of interest (such as eclipses, station access events, etc.) to continuous, differentiable event functions. A stepping algorithm and a bracketing algorithm are used to detect and locate the roots. Examples of event functions and the stepping/bracketing algorithms are discussed, along with results indicating performance and accuracy in comparison to commercial tools across a variety of trajectories

Gravitational radiation reaction and inspiral waveforms in the adiabatic limit

We describe progress evolving an important limit of binary orbits in general relativity, that of a stellar mass compact object gradually spiraling into a much larger, massive black hole. These systems are of great interest for gravitational wave observations. We have developed tools to compute for the first time the radiated fluxes of energy and angular momentum, as well as instantaneous snapshot waveforms, for generic geodesic orbits. For special classes of orbits, we compute the orbital evolution and waveforms for the complete inspiral by imposing global conservation of energy and angular momentum. For fully generic orbits, inspirals and waveforms can be obtained by augmenting our approach with a prescription for the self force in the adiabatic limit derived by Mino. The resulting waveforms should be sufficiently accurate to be used in future gravitational-wave searches.Comment: Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Let

Verification and Validation of the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT)

This paper describes the processes and results of Verification and Validation (V&V) efforts for the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT). We describe the test program and environments, the tools used for independent test data, and comparison results. The V&V effort produced approximately 13,000 test scripts that are run as part of the nightly buildtest process. In addition, we created approximately 3000 automated GUI tests that are run every two weeks. Presenting all test results are beyond the scope of a single paper. Here we present high-level test results in most areas, and detailed test results for key areas. The final product of the V&V effort presented in this paper was GMAT version R2013a, the first Gold release of the software with completely updated documentation and greatly improved quality. Release R2013a was the staging release for flight qualification performed at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) ultimately resulting in GMAT version R2013b

Phenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori . We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity

Disk Imaging Survey of Chemistry with SMA: II. Southern Sky Protoplanetary Disk Data and Full Sample Statistics

This is the second in a series of papers based on data from DISCS, a Submillimeter Array observing program aimed at spatially and spectrally resolving the chemical composition of 12 protoplanetary disks. We present data on six Southern sky sources - IM Lup, SAO 206462 (HD 135344b), HD 142527, AS 209, AS 205 and V4046 Sgr - which complement the six sources in the Taurus star forming region reported previously. CO 2-1 and HCO+ 3-2 emission are detected and resolved in all disks and show velocity patterns consistent with Keplerian rotation. Where detected, the emission from DCO+ 3-2, N2H+ 3-2, H2CO 3-2 and 4-3,HCN 3-2 and CN 2-1 are also generally spatially resolved. The detection rates are highest toward the M and K stars, while the F star SAO 206462 has only weak CN and HCN emission, and H2CO alone is detected toward HD 142527. These findings together with the statistics from the previous Taurus disks, support the hypothesis that high detection rates of many small molecules depend on the presence of a cold and protected disk midplane, which is less common around F and A stars compared to M and K stars. Disk-averaged variations in the proposed radiation tracer CN/HCN are found to be small, despite two orders of magnitude range of spectral types and accretion rates. In contrast, the resolved images suggest that the CN/HCN emission ratio varies with disk radius in at least two of the systems. There are no clear observational differences in the disk chemistry between the classical/full T Tauri disks and transitional disks. Furthermore, the observed line emission does not depend on measured accretion luminosities or the number of infrared lines detected, which suggests that the chemistry outside of 100 AU is not coupled to the physical processes that drive the chemistry in the innermost few AU.Comment: accepted for publication in ApJ, 41 pages including 7 figure

Fish and Invertebrate Use of Restored vs. Natural Oyster Reefs in a Shallow Temperate Latitude Estuary

Coastal marine habitats continue to be degraded, thereby compelling largescale restoration in many parts of the world. Whether restored habitats function similarly to natural habitats and fully recover lost ecosystem services is unclear. In estuaries, oyster reefs have been degraded by multiple anthropogenic activities including destructive fishing practices and reduced water quality, motivating restoration to maintain oyster fisheries and other ecosystem services, often at relatively high cost. We compared fish and invertebrate communities on recently restored (0–1 year post-restoration), older restored (3–4 years post-restoration), and natural oyster reefs to determine if and when restored reefs support functionally similar faunal communities. To test the influence of landscape setting on the faunal communities, the restored and natural reefs, as well as a control without reef present, were distributed among three landscapes (on the edge of salt marsh away from seagrass [salt marsh landscape], on mudflats [mudflat landscape], and near to seagrass and salt marsh [seagrass landscape]). Oyster density and biomass were greatest on restored reef habitat, as were those of non-oyster bivalve species. Total abundance of invertebrates was much greater on oyster reefs than in control plots, regardless of reef or landscape type, yet were frequently highest on older restored reefs. Meanwhile, juvenile fish densities were greatest on natural reefs, at intermediate densities on older restored reefs, and least abundant on controls. When comparing the effects of reef age and landscape setting, juvenile fish densities were greatest on younger reefs within the mudflat landscape. Collectively, these results indicate that oyster reefs harbor higher densities of resident invertebrate prey, which may explain why reef habitat is also important for juvenile fish. Laboratory and field experiments supported the notion that gag grouper (a predatory demersal fish) forage more effectively on oyster reefs than on unstructured mud bottom, whereas our experiments suggest that flounders that utilize oyster reefs likely forage on adjacent mud bottom. Because landscape setting influenced fish and invertebrate communities on restored reefs, the ecological consequences of landscape setting should be incorporated into restoration decision making and site selection to enhance the recovery of ecosystem goods and services

Now You See Me, Now You Don't: Change Blindness in Pilot Perception of Weather Symbology

Objective: The overarching goal of this study is to perform a human factors assessment of the effects of variations in cockpit weather symbology on General Aviation (GA) pilot symbol perception. Background: To support the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) program, ongoing efforts focus on the implementation and use of weather technologies and weather presentations. Method: Sixty instrument-rated GA pilots volunteered to participate in the study. We manipulated the independent variable Weather Presentations by presenting weather information under three different symbology modes. In Experiment 1, we assess pilot perception of METAR symbols during flight and assess how this affects flight behavior, cognitive engagement, and decision-making. In Experiment 2, we focus on pilot perception of time-stamps and weather symbols in a "change-detection" experiment. Results: The result shows that pilots (using different weather presentations) vary considerably in their overall perception of METAR symbol change during flight. The overall group detection ranges from a virtual blindness (25% detections) to a modest detection performance (62% detections). The result from the change-detection experiment shows that the detection accuracy varies greatly between different weather symbols and between different weather presentations. Although the average change-detection performance is high across all weather presentations for precipitation areas (on average, 89% to 94% correct detections), SIGMET areas (83% to 93%), and METAR symbols (83% to 91%), pilots are virtually blind to changes for lightning symbols (17% to 43%) and time-stamp information (13% to 20%). Conclusion: Weather presentation symbology affects pilots\u2019 perception of symbol change and cognitive engagement. Pilot performance varies credibly between different symbology renderings of the same weather data. Applications: This simulation is part of an ongoing assessment of the effects of weather-presentation symbology related to the optimization of weather presentations in cockpits

Gene expression differences in relation to age and social environment in queen and worker bumble bees

Eusocial insects provide special insights into the genetic pathways influencing aging because of their long-lived queens and flexible aging schedules. Using qRT-PCR in the primitively eusocial bumble bee Bombus terrestris (Linnaeus), we investigated expression levels of four candidate genes associated with taxonomically widespread age-related pathways (coenzyme Q biosynthesis protein 7, COQ7; DNA methyltransferase 3, Dnmt3; foraging, for; and vitellogenin, vg). In Experiment 1, we tested how expression changes with queen relative age and productivity. We found a significant age-related increase in COQ7 expression in queen ovary. In brain, all four genes showed higher expression with increasing female (queen plus worker) production, with this relationship strengthening as queen age increased, suggesting a link with the positive association of fecundity and longevity found in eusocial insect queens. In Experiment 2, we tested effects of relative age and social environment (worker removal) in foundress queens and effects of age and reproductive status in workers. In this experiment, workerless queens showed significantly higher for expression in brain, as predicted if downregulation of for is associated with the cessation of foraging by foundress queens following worker emergence. Workers showed a significant age-related increase in Dnmt3 expression in fat body, suggesting a novel association between aging and methylation in B. terrestris. Ovary activation was associated with significantly higher vg expression in fat body and, in younger workers, in brain, consistent with vitellogenin's ancestral role in regulating egg production. Overall, our findings reveal a mixture of novel and conserved features in age-related genetic pathways under primitive eusociality