Analysis of rainfall records from Dale Fort

A composite record of monthly rainfall is presented for Dale Fort Field Centre. The original observations were made in Haverfordwest from 1849 to 1909 and then a series from Stackpole Court was used for the period 1910-1970. The single homogenous series was produced by Dick Tabony at the UK Meteorological Office in 1980 since when the series has been extended using the Dale Fort observations. A daily rainfall record is available for Dale Fort from 1961 and this has been analysed to look at the frequency of measurable rainfall and heavy falls of rain. Some comparisons are made with rainfall inland where there is orographic enhancement of upland rainfall. The wettest day at Dale Fort was 11th October 2005 when exactly 92 mm was recorded

As safe as houses? Why standards for urban development matter

Standards for designing, improving, and maintaining the built environment have conceptual and practical value for health. Yet, their importance runs the risk of being subsumed in tangential discourses, including over their applicability for particular populations or in particular contexts. This paper applies an integrative systems perspective to several relevant scenarios, while broadly revisiting the health rationale for built environment standards. As with any intervention, standards can have negative unintended consequences, in some cases inducing adverse outcomes. Yet, forgoing standards is not an acceptable answer for sustainable urbanization. The systems perspective adopted here surveys some of the driving forces that underlie adverse outcomes, and suggests potential leverage points and criteria for action

Invited Review: IPCC, Agriculture and Food - A Case of Shifting Cultivation and History.

Since 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed data base of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs were analysed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region and whether or not adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom-up and top-down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and non-production aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with in an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modelling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and non-production aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models

Software fault-freeness and reliability predictions

Many software development practices aim at ensuring that software is correct, or fault-free. In safety critical applications, requirements are in terms of probabilities of certain behaviours, e.g. as associated to the Safety Integrity Levels of IEC 61508. The two forms of reasoning - about evidence of correctness and about probabilities of certain failures -are rarely brought together explicitly. The desirability of using claims of correctness has been argued by many authors, but not been taken up in practice. We address how to combine evidence concerning probability of failure together with evidence pertaining to likelihood of fault-freeness, in a Bayesian framework. We present novel results to make this approach practical, by guaranteeing reliability predictions that are conservative (err on the side of pessimism), despite the difficulty of stating prior probability distributions for reliability parameters. This approach seems suitable for practical application to assessment of certain classes of safety critical systems

River water temperature demonstrates resistance to long‐term air temperature change

Ecosystem health and water quality of rivers are dependent on their temperature. With ongoing human-induced climate change causing increases in air temperature across the globe, it is anticipated the stream temperatures will rise too—in turn increasing the rates of biogeochemical stream processes and potentially threatening the viability and health of aquatic organisms. To understand the relationship between climate change and stream temperature response, the longer the records that can be analysed, the more the robust the analysis for detecting change. In this study, we analyse records from 263 catchments from across the United Kingdom for 45 years from 1974 to 2019 to assess the link between air temperature and stream temperature change. To give the most precise analysis of these long records, Bayesian hierarchical modelling was used and showed that: (i) The Bayesian hierarchical approach was 59% more precise, that is, reduced uncertainty on long-term trends, than using simple linear regression. (ii) The increase in annual average air temperature over 45 years across the United Kingdom showed no significant differences between 22 weather stations and gave a 45-year change of 1.35 ± 0.9°C. (iii) Trends in annual mean stream temperature change varied from −2.3 °C to 2.0 °C over 45 years, with the mean over 263 sites being 0.5 °C over 45 years. (iv) 1% of rivers showed a stream temperature trend significantly greater than the air temperature trend but 3% of sites showed a stream temperature trend significantly lower than zero. (v) 74% of all river sites showed no significant monotonic trend, either positive or negative, in water temperature even after 45 years. The observed declines in stream temperature could be ascribed to the closures of thermoelectric power stations but it is unclear why the stream temperature at some sites has risen faster than air temperature. The study shows that mean river temperature was well buffered against changes in air temperature—a 1°C rise in air temperature giving 0.37°C in mean stream temperature

Human impact on long-term organic carbon export to rivers

Anthropogenic landscape alterations have increased global carbon transported by rivers to oceans since preindustrial times. Few suitable observational data sets exist to distinguish different drivers of carbon increase, given that alterations only reveal their impact on fluvial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) over long time periods. We use the world's longest record of DOC concentrations (130 years) to identify key drivers of DOC change in the Thames basin (UK). We show that 90% of the long-term rise in fluvial DOC is explained by increased urbanization, which released to the river 671 kt C over the entire period. This source of carbon is linked to rising population, due to increased sewage effluent. Soil disturbance from land use change explained shorter-term fluvial responses. The largest land use disturbance was during the Second World War, when almost half the grassland area in the catchment was converted into arable land, which released 45 kt C from soils to the river. Carbon that had built up in soils over decades was released to the river in only a few years. Our work suggests that widespread population growth may have a greater influence on fluvial DOC trends than previously thought

Chemical Oxygen Demand as a Measure of Fluvial Organic Matter Oxidation State

The oxidative ratio (OR) of the terrestrial biosphere is directly related to the size of the terrestrial biosphere carbon sink. In turn, OR of naturally occurring organic matter can be directly related to the oxidation state of the carbon in naturally occurring organic matter (Cox). Chemical oxygen demand (COD) is a widely measured water quality parameter that has been used as a short‐term substitute for the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD). Here, we propose that if the concentration of reduced species is known, then COD measurement can be used to assess the oxidation state (Cox) of fluvial organic C. Using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, this study analyzed 21 years of water quality monitoring across England to calculate Cox of fluvial organic matter. The study showed that (a) COD could not be considered separately from the reduced species (e.g., NH4) commonly occurring in freshwater water samples, but it was still possible to calculate the Cox of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC). (b) The median Cox of DOC was 0.23 with a 95th percentile range of −0.1 to 0.4. (c) The median Cox of POC was 0.20 with a 95th percentile range of 0.03–0.37. (d) The estimated Cox in fluvial systems confirms that BOD is decoupled from the production of CO2. Including new Cox estimates in the global estimate of OR gives a new median value of 1.059 with a 95th percentile range of 1.047–1.071, giving the annual flux of CO2 to land (fland) of 1.45 ± 0.1 Gt C/year

The problem of underpowered rivers

This study has hypothesized that for many rivers the trade‐off between flow accumulation and the decrease in slope along channel length means that stream power increases downstream and, moreover, that given the low slope angles in headwater and low‐order streams, they would have insufficient stream power to erode let alone transport sediment. The study considered the stream power profile, the particle travel distances and the application of the Hjulström curve based on the velocity profile of nine, large UK catchments. The study showed that: Some rivers never showed a maximum in their longitudinal stream power profile, implying that some rivers never develop a deposition zone before they discharge at the tidal limit. Particle travel distances during a bankfull discharge event showed that for some rivers 91% of the upper main channel would not be cleared of sediment. Furthermore, while some rivers could transport a 2 mm particle their entire length in one bankfull event, for another river it would take 89 such events. The Hjulström curve shows that for three of the study rivers the upper 20 km of the river was not capable of eroding a 2 μm particle. The study has shown that for all rivers studied, erosion is focused downstream and deposition upstream. Many UK rivers have a dead zone where, on time scales of the order of centuries, no erosion or transport occurs and erosion only occurs in the lower courses of the channel where discharge rather than slope dominates – we propose these as underpowered rivers