Unsupervised machine learning of integrated health and social care data from the Macmillan Improving the Cancer Journey service in Glasgow

Background: Improving the Cancer Journey (ICJ) was launched in 2014 by Glasgow City Council and Macmillan Cancer Support. As part of routine service, data is collected on ICJ users including demographic and health information, results from holistic needs assessments and quality of life scores as measured by EQ-5D health status. There is also data on the number and type of referrals made and feedback from users on the overall service. By applying artificial intelligence and interactive visualization technologies to this data, we seek to improve service provision and optimize resource allocation.Method: An unsupervised machine-learning algorithm was deployed to cluster the data. The classical k-means algorithm was extended with the k-modes technique for categorical data, and the gap heuristic automatically identified the number of clusters. The resulting clusters are used to summarize complex data sets and produce three-dimensional visualizations of the data landscape. Furthermore, the traits of new ICJ clients are predicted by approximately matching their details to the nearest existing cluster center.Results: Cross-validation showed the model’s effectiveness over a wide range of traits. For example, the model can predict marital status, employment status and housing type with an accuracy between 2.4 to 4.8 times greater than random selection. One of the most interesting preliminary findings is that area deprivation (measured through Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation-SIMD) is a better predictor of an ICJ client’s needs than primary diagnosis (cancer type).Conclusion: A key strength of this system is its ability to rapidly ingest new data on its own and derive new predictions from those data. This means the model can guide service provision by forecasting demand based on actual or hypothesized data. The aim is to provide intelligent person-centered recommendations. The machine-learning model described here is part of a prototype software tool currently under development for use by the cancer support community.Disclosure: Funded by Macmillan Cancer Support</p

Opioid prescribing for chronic musculoskeletal pain in UK primary care: results from a cohort analysis of the COPERS trial

Objective To establish the level of opioid prescribing for patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain in a sample of patients from primary care and to estimate prescription costs. Design Secondary data analyses from a two-arm pragmatic randomised controlled trial (COPERS) testing the effectiveness of group self-management course and usual care against relaxation and usual care for patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain (ISRCTN 24426731). Setting 25 general practices and two community musculoskeletal services in the UK (London and Midlands). Participants 703 chronic pain participants; 81% white, 67% female, enrolled in the COPERS trial. Main outcome measures Anonymised prescribing data over 12 months extracted from GP electronic records. Results Of the 703 trial participants with chronic musculoskeletal pain, 413 (59%) patients were prescribed opioids. Among those prescribed an opioid, the number of opioid prescriptions varied from 1 to 52 per year. A total of 3319 opioid prescriptions were issued over the study period, of which 53% (1768/3319) were for strong opioids (tramadol, buprenorphine, morphine, oxycodone, fentanyl and tapentadol). The mean number of opioid prescriptions per patient prescribed any opioid was 8.0 (SD=7.9). A third of patients on opioids were prescribed more than one type of opioid; the most frequent combinations were: codeine plus tramadol and codeine plus morphine. The cost of opioid prescriptions per patient per year varied from £3 to £4844. The average annual prescription cost was £24 (SD=29) for patients prescribed weak opioids and £174 (SD=421) for patients prescribed strong opioids. Approximately 40% of patients received >3 prescriptions of strong opioids per year, with an annual cost of £236 per person. Conclusions Long-term prescribing of opioids for chronic musculoskeletal pain is common in primary care. For over a quarter of patients receiving strong opioids, these drugs may have been overprescribed according to national guidelines

Is age a barrier to chemotherapy? Rates of treatment in older patients with breast, colon or lung cancer in England in 2014: A national registry study

Background Survival from cancer in older patients is poorer in the UK than other countries with similar health systems and wealth possibly due to undertreatment and increased toxicities in this specific population. This population-based observational study describes factors affecting systemic anticancer treatment (SACT) use in older patients in England. Methods We identified patients aged ≥70 with stage II-III breast cancer, stage III colon cancer and stage IIIB-IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) diagnosed in 2014 from a dataset collected by the National Health Service in England. We used logistic regression to estimate factors affecting likelihood of receiving SACT and performed separate regression analyses for each disease, adjusting for age, gender, stage at diagnosis, pathological features, performance status, Charlson comorbidity index, ethnicity and socioeconomic group. We assessed 2-year overall survival (OS) using Kaplan-Meier method. Case mix adjusted treatment rates and workload volume were calculated at hospital level and presented using funnel plots, stratified by age groups (<70 and ≥70) to allow for assessment of variation between centres. Results 36892 patients were identified: 19879 with stage II-III breast cancer, 5292 with stage III colon cancer and 11721 with stage IIIB-IV NSCLC. Patients over 70 were less likely to receive SACT compared to those aged under 70: breast 11.7% vs 64.6%, p < 0.001; colon 37.4% vs 79%, p < 0.001; NSCLC 33.5% vs 60.2%, p < 0.001. 2-year OS for patients receiving SACT was similar for patients aged ≥70 and <70: breast 91.5% (95% CI: 89.3%-93.2%) vs 96.4% (95% CI: 95.9%-96.7%); colon 84.8% (95% CI: 82.6%-86.8%) vs 88.3% (95% CI: 86.7%-89.8%); NSCLC 16.7% (95% CI: 15.1%-18.4%) vs 19.8% (95%CI: 18.5%-21.1%). Patients receiving SACT had better OS than those untreated. SACT rates varied widely between hospitals after adjusting for case-mix across all ages. Conclusions Our study suggests that several factors affect the likelihood of receiving SACT but after adjusting for these, age remains determinant. Identifying hospitals with significantly lower SACT rates should prompt local review of multidisciplinary team practice

Life after prostate cancer diagnosis: protocol for a UK-wide patient-reported outcomes study

Background: Prostate cancer and its treatment may impact physically, psychologically and socially; affecting the health-related quality of life of men and their partners/spouses. The Life After Prostate Cancer Diagnosis (LAPCD) study is a UK-wide patient-reported outcomes study which will generate information to improve the health and well-being of men with prostate cancer. Methods and analysis: Postal surveys will be sent to prostate cancer survivors (18–42 months postdiagnosis) in all 4 UK countries (n=∼70 000). Eligible men will be identified and/or verified through cancer registration systems. Men will be surveyed twice, 12 months apart, to explore changes in outcomes over time. Second, separate cohorts will be surveyed once and the design will include evaluation of the acceptability of online survey tools. A comprehensive patient-reported outcome measure has been developed using generic and specific instruments with proven psychometric properties and relevance in national and international studies. The outcome data will be linked with administrative health data (eg, treatment information from hospital data). To ensure detailed understanding of issues of importance, qualitative interviews will be undertaken with a sample of men who complete the survey across the UK (n=∼150) along with a small number of partners/spouses (n=∼30). Ethics and dissemination: The study has received the following approvals: Newcastle and North Tyneside 1 Research Ethics Committee (15/NE/0036), Health Research Authority Confidentiality Advisory Group (15/CAG/0110), NHS Scotland Public Benefit and Privacy Panel (0516-0364), Office of Research Ethics Northern Ireland (16/NI/0073) and NHS R&D approval from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Using traditional and innovative methods, the results will be made available to men and their partners/spouses, the funders, the NHS, social care, voluntary sector organisations and other researchers

Key factors associated with social distress after prostate cancer: Results from the United Kingdom Life after Prostate Cancer diagnosis study

Background: More men are living following a prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis. They may need support to maximize the quality of their survival. Physical and psychological impacts of PCa are widely documented. Less is known about social impacts. We aimed to identify key factors associated with social distress following PCa. Methods: The Life After Prostate Cancer Diagnosis study is a UK national cross-sectional survey of men 18–42 months post diagnosis of PCa. Men (n = 58 930) were invited to participate by their diagnosing cancer centre including 82% of English NHS Trusts (n = 111) and 100% of all Health Boards in Northern Ireland (n = 5), Scotland (n = 14) and Wales (n = 6). Social distress was measured using the Social Difficulties Inventory (SDI-21), 16 item Social Distress scale with men assigned to ‘socially distressed’/‘not socially distressed’ groups, according to published guidelines. Clinical and sociodemographic variables were collected from self-report and cancer registries. Results: Response rate 60.8% (n = 35 823) of whom 97% (n = 29 351) completed the Social Distress scale (mean age = 71.2; SD = 7.88). The proportion of ‘socially distressed’ men was 9.4%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed unemployment versus employment (odds ratio (OR): 11.58 [95% CI 9.16–14.63]) and ≥3 co-morbidities versus none (OR: 5.37 [95% CI 4.61–6.27]) as key associations. Others were Androgen Deprivation Therapy, External Beam Radiotherapy in combination with another treatment, age, prior mental health problems and living in a socio-economically deprived area. Conclusion: Most men following PCa are socially resilient. A simple checklist could help clinicians identify men at risk of social distress

Discrimination of conventional and organic white cabbage from a long-term field trial study using untargeted LC-MS-based metabolomics

The influence of organic and conventional farming practices on the content of single nutrients in plants is disputed in the scientific literature. Here, large-scale untargeted LC-MS-based metabolomics was used to compare the composition of white cabbage from organic and conventional agriculture, measuring 1,600 compounds. Cabbage was sampled in 2 years from one conventional and two organic farming systems in a rigidly controlled long-term field trial in Denmark. Using Orthogonal Projection to Latent Structures-Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA), we found that the production system leaves a significant (p = 0.013) imprint in the white cabbage metabolome that is retained between production years. We externally validated this finding by predicting the production system of samples from one year using a classification model built on samples from the other year, with a correct classification in 83% of cases. Thus, it was concluded that the investigated conventional and organic management practices have a systematic impact on the metabolome of white cabbage. This emphasizes the potential of untargeted metabolomics for authenticity testing of organic plant products

'The mum has to live with the decision much more than the dad'; a qualitative study of men's perceptions of their influence on breastfeeding decision-making

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Although breastfeeding is widely acknowledged as the normal method of infant feeding, there are large variations in rates of initiation and duration. Several factors are linked to the likelihood of breastfeeding initiation, including the influence and opinion of the child's father. There is limited research into men's perception of their influence, or if they feel it appropriate to be involved in deciding how to feed their children. The aim of this study was to investigate, using a qualitative methodology, fathers' perceptions of their influence on the decision to feed their child breastmilk or formula. Methods: Six men were recruited through Children's Centres in Bristol, United Kingdom, and a phenomenological research methodology implemented using semi-structured interviews. Specific objectives were: to understand participants' views on breastfeeding; understand if and how these views were discussed with their partner; to determine if participants believed involvement in the feeding decision is appropriate; to understand how they felt about the decision made; and to see if their views changed after the birth of their child. Results: Multiple themes emerged during analysis, including deferring of responsibility to the mother; breastfeeding as normal practice; change in attitude; involvement in parenting; and, advantages for the father. The men in the study accepted breastfeeding as normal behaviour, probably because of their upbringing in households where breastfeeding was practiced. There was consensus that women had more say in deciding to breastfeed, which was explained as a consequence of their greater involvement. It could also be interpreted as an unwillingness to interfere in an area perceived as 'owned' by women. Participants acknowledged that breastfeeding was more difficult than they had perceived. Conclusions: The key themes emerging from the interviews are suggestive of an impact on breastfeeding interventions that use the father as an intermediary. If they do not feel that they are 'permitted' to comment on their partner's breastfeeding, then simply increasing knowledge of breastfeeding benefits in these men is likely to have minimal impact

Does crop diversity contribute to dietary diversity? Evidence from integration of vegetables into maize-based farming systems

Background: Maize is the most important staple crop for food security and livelihood of smallholder farmers in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, but it alone cannot ensure food security. Cropping patterns must be diversified to ensure an adequate supply and economic access to greater variety of foods for smallholder farm households. This study measured the effect of crop diversification on household dietary diversity in a selected study locale using a survey of 300 randomly stratified farm households in 10 villages located in the Babati, Kongwa and Kiteto districts of Tanzania. Results: Based on multiple regression analysis, the study found that simply increasing Simpson’s Index does not influence dietary diversity of farm households due to the presence of interaction effect between Simpson’s Index and crop income. It is much more critical and significant to increase the revenue generated from diversified crops along with other socioeconomic endowment and behavioral characteristics of farm households. This is particularly applicable to poorer smallholder farmers who receive crop income less than US$85 per sales transaction and per season. Particularly, marginal and smallholders might be exposed to the effects of crop diversification and crop income toward increasing in their household dietary diversity score. Conclusion: Under average crop income scenarios, households that diversify their crop production tend to increase their dietary diversity from their existing dietary diversity score at a decreasing rate. However, under below average crop income threshold scenarios, farmers tend to increase their dietary diversity score from their existing score at an increasing rate when they diversify into high-value crops that attract relatively high farm gate values and accrue higher net revenues from the market. Monthly food expenditure also tends to positively influence household dietary diversity, indicating that farm households that spend more on market-purchased food have consistent increases in their dietary diversity scores at the household level. This study concludes that improving economic access to variety of foods at the smallholder household level by diversifying diets through increased crop diversification should be encouraged within maize-based farming systems of the study locale, through integration of micronutrient-rich foods such as vegetables

Intravitreal ranibizumab versus aflibercept versus bevacizumab for macular oedema due to central retinal vein occlusion: the LEAVO non-inferiority three-arm RCT

Background Licensed ranibizumab (0.5 mg/0.05 ml Lucentis®; Novartis International AG, Basel, Switzerland) and aflibercept (2 mg/0.05 ml Eylea®; Bayer AG, Leverkusen, Germany) and unlicensed bevacizumab (1.25 mg/0.05 ml Avastin®; F. Hoffmann-La Roche AG, Basel, Switzerland) are used to treat macula oedema due to central retinal vein occlusion, but their relative clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and impact on the UK NHS and Personal Social Services have never been directly compared over the typical disease treatment period. Objective The objective was to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three intravitreal antivascular endothelial growth factor agents for the management of macula oedema due to central retinal vein occlusion. Design This was a three-arm, double-masked, randomised controlled non-inferiority trial. Setting The trial was set in 44 UK NHS ophthalmology departments, between 2014 and 2018. Participants A total of 463 patients with visual impairment due to macula oedema secondary to central retinal vein occlusion were included in the trial. Interventions The participants were treated with repeated intravitreal injections of ranibizumab (n = 155), aflibercept (n = 154) or bevacizumab (n = 154). Main outcome measures The primary outcome was an increase in the best corrected visual acuity letter score from baseline to 100 weeks in the trial eye. The null hypothesis that aflibercept and bevacizumab are each inferior to ranibizumab was tested with a non-inferiority margin of –5 visual acuity letters over 100 weeks. Secondary outcomes included additional visual acuity, and imaging outcomes, Visual Function Questionnaire-25, EuroQol-5 Dimensions with and without a vision bolt-on, and drug side effects. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using treatment costs and Visual Function Questionnaire-Utility Index to measure quality-adjusted life-years. Results The adjusted mean changes at 100 weeks in the best corrected visual acuity letter scores were as follows – ranibizumab, 12.5 letters (standard deviation 21.1 letters); aflibercept, 15.1 letters (standard deviation 18.7 letters); and bevacizumab, 9.8 letters (standard deviation 21.4 letters). Aflibercept was non-inferior to ranibizumab in the intention-to-treat population (adjusted mean best corrected visual acuity difference 2.23 letters, 95% confidence interval –2.17 to 6.63 letters; p = 0.0006), but not superior. The study was unable to demonstrate that bevacizumab was non-inferior to ranibizumab in the intention-to-treat population (adjusted mean best corrected visual acuity difference –1.73 letters, 95% confidence interval –6.12 to 2.67 letters; p = 0.071). A post hoc analysis was unable to demonstrate that bevacizumab was non-inferior to aflibercept in the intention-to-treat population (adjusted mean best corrected visual acuity difference was –3.96 letters, 95% confidence interval –8.34 to 0.42 letters; p = 0.32). All per-protocol population results were the same. Fewer injections were required with aflibercept (10.0) than with ranibizumab (11.8) (difference in means –1.8, 95% confidence interval –2.9 to –0.8). A post hoc analysis showed that more bevacizumab than aflibercept injections were required (difference in means 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 2.7). There were no new safety concerns. The model- and trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses estimated that bevacizumab was the most cost-effective treatment at a threshold of £20,000–30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Limitations The comparison of aflibercept and bevacizumab was a post hoc analysis. Conclusion The study showed aflibercept to be non-inferior to ranibizumab. However, the possibility that bevacizumab is worse than ranibizumab and aflibercept by 5 visual acuity letters cannot be ruled out. Bevacizumab is an economically attractive treatment alternative and would lead to substantial cost savings to the NHS and other health-care systems. However, uncertainty about its relative effectiveness should be discussed comprehensively with patients, their representatives and funders before treatment is considered. Future work To obtain extensive patient feedback and discuss with all stakeholders future bevacizumab NHS use. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13623634. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 38. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information