Exponential families of mixed Poisson distributions

If I=(I1,…,Id) is a random variable on [0,∞)d with distribution μ(dλ1,…,dλd), the mixed Poisson distribution MP(μ) on View the MathML source is the distribution of (N1(I1),…,Nd(Id)) where N1,…,Nd are ordinary independent Poisson processes which are also independent of I. The paper proves that if F is a natural exponential family on [0,∞)d then MP(F) is also a natural exponential family if and only if a generating probability of F is the distribution of v0+v1Y1+cdots, three dots, centered+vqYq for some qless-than-or-equals, slantd, for some vectors v0,…,vq of [0,∞)d with disjoint supports and for independent standard real gamma random variables Y1,…,Yq

Measurement of Returns-to-Scale using Interval Data Envelopment Analysis Models

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI linkThe economic concept of Returns-to-Scale (RTS) has been intensively studied in the context of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The conventional DEA models that are used for RTS classification require well-defined and accurate data whereas in reality observations gathered from production systems may be characterized by intervals. For instance, the heat losses of the combined production of heat and power (CHP) systems may be within a certain range, hinging on a wide variety of factors such as external temperature and real-time energy demand. Enriching the current literature independently tackling the two problems; interval data and RTS estimation; we develop an overarching evaluation process for estimating RTS of Decision Making Units (DMUs) in Imprecise DEA (IDEA) where the input and output data lie within bounded intervals. In the presence of interval data, we introduce six types of RTS involving increasing, decreasing, constant, non-increasing, non-decreasing and variable RTS. The situation for non-increasing (non-decreasing) RTS is then divided into two partitions; constant or decreasing (constant or increasing) RTS using sensitivity analysis. Additionally, the situation for variable RTS is split into three partitions consisting of constant, decreasing and increasing RTS using sensitivity analysis. Besides, we present the stability region of an observation while preserving its current RTS classification using the optimal values of a set of proposed DEA-based models. The applicability and efficacy of the developed approach is finally studied through two numerical examples and a case study

Elevated fetal steroidogenic activity in autism

Autism affects males more than females, giving rise to the idea that the influence of steroid hormones on early fetal brain development may be one important early biological risk factor. Utilizing the Danish Historic Birth Cohort and Danish Psychiatric Central Register, we identified all amniotic fluid samples of males born between 1993 and 1999 who later received ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision) diagnoses of autism, Asperger syndrome or PDD-NOS (pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified) (n=128) compared with matched typically developing controls. Concentration levels of Δ4 sex steroids (progesterone, 17α-hydroxy-progesterone, androstenedione and testosterone) and cortisol were measured with liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. All hormones were positively associated with each other and principal component analysis confirmed that one generalized latent steroidogenic factor was driving much of the variation in the data. The autism group showed elevations across all hormones on this latent generalized steroidogenic factor (Cohen's d=0.37, P=0.0009) and this elevation was uniform across ICD-10 diagnostic label. These results provide the first direct evidence of elevated fetal steroidogenic activity in autism. Such elevations may be important as epigenetic fetal programming mechanisms and may interact with other important pathophysiological factors in autism

Effects of prenatal exposure to diesel exhaust particles on postnatal development, behavior, genotoxicity and inflammation in mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Results from epidemiological studies indicate that particulate air pollution constitutes a hazard for human health. Recent studies suggest that diesel exhaust possesses endocrine activity and therefore may affect reproductive outcome. This study in mice aimed to investigate whether exposure to diesel exhaust particles (DEP; NIST 2975) would affect gestation, postnatal development, activity, learning and memory, and biomarkers of transplacental toxicity. Pregnant mice (C57BL/6; BomTac) were exposed to 19 mg/m³DEP (~1·10⁶particles/cm³; mass median diameter ≅ 240 nm) on gestational days 9–19, for 1 h/day.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Gestational parameters were similar in control and diesel groups. Shortly after birth, body weights of DEP offspring were slightly lower than in controls. This difference increased during lactation, so by weaning the DEP exposed offspring weighed significantly less than the control progeny. Only slight effects of exposure were observed on cognitive function in female DEP offspring and on biomarkers of exposure to particles or genotoxic substances.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In utero exposure to DEP decreased weight gain during lactation. Cognitive function and levels of biomarkers of exposure to particles or to genotoxic substances were generally similar in exposed and control offspring. The particle size and chemical composition of the DEP and differences in exposure methods (fresh, whole exhaust versus aged, resuspended DEP) may play a significant role on the biological effects observed in this compared to other studies.</p

Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 and D3 levels and incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.Low circulating levels of total 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) have been associated with an increased risk of adverse effects after cardiac surgery. The metabolites, 25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3, provide a good index of vitamin D status. In this study, we examined the association between preoperative plasma levels of total 25(OH)D, 25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3 and the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following open heart surgery. The levels of plasma 25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3 in 118 patients, who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting and/or valvular surgery, were measured immediately prior to surgery and on postoperative day 3 by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Patients who developed POAF had higher median plasma levels of 25(OH)D2 than those who remained in sinus rhythm (SR) (P = 0·003), but no significant difference was noted in levels of 25(OH)D3 or total 25(OH)D between the two groups (P > 0·05). By univariate analysis, patients with total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D2 levels above the median had higher frequency of POAF (P < 0·05) and the incidence of POAF increased significantly with each higher quartile of preoperative plasma levels of 25(OH)D2 (P = 0·001), an association that was independent of confounding factors. In both the SR and POAF groups, the median plasma levels of 25(OH)D2, 25(OH)D3 and total 25(OH)D were lower (P < 0·05) on the third postoperative day compared with preoperatively. Our findings demonstrate that higher plasma levels of 25(OH)D2 are associated with increased risk of POAF, while this is not the case for 25(OH)D3 or total 25(OH)D. The reason for these discrepant results is not clear but warrants further study

Influences of the Common FTO rs9939609 Variant on Inflammatory Markers Throughout a Broad Range of Body Mass Index

A recent study reported that the fatness associated A-allele of FTO rs9939609 increased plasma high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels independent of fatness. We aimed to investigate if this gene variant had fatness-independent effects on plasma hs-CRP and 10 additional circulating obesity-related adipokines throughout a broad range of body mass index (BMI) among Danish men.In a population of 362,200 young men, examined for military service between 1943 and 1977, two groups were identified: 1) a random 1% sample and 2) all obese men (BMI = 31.0 kg/m(2), all of whom were above the 99(th) percentile of this population). At an average age of 49 years (range: 39 through 65 years), 551 men, hereof 231 of the obese, were re-examined, including genotyping and measurement of the fasting circulating inflammatory markers hs-CRP, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10, IL-18, mip1α, mip1β, sTNFα-R1, TGF-β, TNF-α and leptin. Men with known disease were excluded from the examination. All the inflammatory markers were log-transformed to approximate a normal distribution. Genotype-phenotype relationships were studied using linear regression analyses with the inflammatory markers as the response variable. Significant positive associations between hs-CRP, leptin and a broad range of BMI were observed, but the associations did not significantly differ across FTO rs9939609 genotype. There were no significant associations between the other inflammatory markers, FTO rs9939609 genotype or BMI, respectively.No fatness-independent effects of the FTO rs9939609 A-allele on a series of inflammatory markers were observed in this cohort of healthy middle-aged men representing a broad range of fatness

Sperm DNA integrity in relation to exposure to environmental perfluoroalkyl substances – A study of spouses of pregnant women in three geographical regions.

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) can interfere with male reproductive function, but evidence in humansis limited. Six hundred four fertilemen(199 from Greenland, 197 from Poland and 208 from Ukraine) wereenrolled in the study. We measured four PFASs in serum (PFOS, PFOA, PFNA and PFHxS) and concurrentDNA damage in spermatozoa by sperm chromatin structure assay (SCSA) and in situ terminal deoxynucleotidyltransferase dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL) assay, apoptotic markers in semen (Fas-receptorand Bcl-xL), and reproductive hormones in serum. No association between PFASs and SCSA, apoptoticmarkers or reproductive hormones emerged.Weobserved a slight increase in SHBG and TUNEL-positivitywith increased PFOA exposure in men from Greenland. Thus, consistent evidence that PFAS exposureinterferes with sperm DNA fragmentation, apoptosis or reproductive hormones was not found

Modelling stochastic bivariate mortality

Stochastic mortality, i.e. modelling death arrival via a jump process with stochastic intensity, is gaining increasing reputation as a way to represent mortality risk. This paper represents a first attempt to model the mortality risk of couples of individuals, according to the stochastic intensity approach. On the theoretical side, we extend to couples the Cox processes set up, i.e. the idea that mortality is driven by a jump process whose intensity is itself a stochastic process, proper of a particular generation within each gender. Dependence between the survival times of the members of a couple is captured by an Archimedean copula. On the calibration side, we fit the joint survival function by calibrating separately the (analytical) copula and the (analytical) margins. First, we select the best fit copula according to the methodology of Wang and Wells (2000) for censored data. Then, we provide a sample-based calibration for the intensity, using a time-homogeneous, non mean-reverting, affine process: this gives the analytical marginal survival functions. Coupling the best fit copula with the calibrated margins we obtain, on a sample generation, a joint survival function which incorporates the stochastic nature of mortality improvements and is far from representing independency.On the contrary, since the best fit copula turns out to be a Nelsen one, dependency is increasing with age and long-term dependence exists