Methods for generating alternative solutions to water resources planning problems

An optimization model is generally not a perfect representation of a complex water resources planning problem because not all important issues can be captured in a model. Optimization models can be used in a planning process to generate planning alternatives that are good and different so that the analyst and the decision maker can examine a wide range of alternatives t.0 gain insight and understanding. This approach is called modeling to generate alternatives (MGA). Several new MGA methods, a random method, a branch and bound/screening (BBS) method and a Fuzzy BSJ method, are described. This work also provides an assessment of the potential use of these methods as well as the HSJ method for generating good and different alternative solutions; the methods are illustrated using a wastewater treatment system planning problem, which is formulated as a mixed integer programming (MIP) model.U.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Department of the InteriorOpe

Generating alternative solutions for dynamic programming models of water resources problems

A technique is presented to generate alternatives that are different from each other, but good with respect to modeled objectives, for problems that can be modeled by dynamic programming. The technique is compared to other possible approaches, and relevant concepts of difference among alternatives are discussed. Application to a floodplain management model shows that the technique can produce sets of different alternatives for water resources problems.U.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Department of the InteriorOpe

Flow rate and source reservoir identification from airborne chemical sampling of the uncontrolled Elgin platform gas release

An uncontrolled gas leak from 25 March to 16 May 2012 led to evacuation of the Total Elgin well head and neighbouring drilling and production platforms in the UK North Sea. Initially the atmospheric flow rate of leaking gas and condensate was very poorly known, hampering environmental assessment and well control efforts. Six flights by the UK FAAM chemically-instrumented BAe-146 research aircraft, were used to quantify the flow rate. Where appropriate, two different methods were used to calculate the flow rate: 1. Gaussian plume fitting in the vertical and 2. Direct integration of the plume. When both methods were used, they compared within 6 % of each other and within combined errors. Data from the first flight on 30 March 2012 showed the flow rate to be 1.3 ± 0.2 kg CH4 s−1, decreasing to less than half that by the second flight on 17 April 2012. δ13CCH4 in the gas was found to be −43 ‰, implying that the gas source was unlikely to be from the main high-pressure high-temperature Elgin gas field at 5.5 km depth, but more probably from the overlying Hod Formation at 4.2 km depth. This was deemed to be smaller and more manageable than the high-pressure Elgin field and hence the response strategy was considerably simpler. The first flight was conducted within 5 days of the blowout and allowed a flow rate estimate within 48 hours of sampling, with δ13CCH4 characterisation soon thereafter, demonstrating the potential for a rapid-response capability that is widely applicable to future atmospheric emissions of environmental concern. Knowledge of the Elgin flow rate helped inform subsequent decision making. This study shows that leak assessment using appropriately designed airborne plume sampling strategies is well suited for circumstances where direct access is difficult or potentially dangerous. Measurements such as this also permit unbiased regulatory assessment of potential impact, independent of the emitting party, on timescales that can inform industry decision-makers and assist rapid response-planning by government

Flow rate and source reservoir identification from airborne chemical sampling of the uncontrolled Elgin platform gas release

An uncontrolled gas leak from 25 March to 16 May 2012 led to evacuation of the Total Elgin well head and neighbouring drilling and production platforms in the UK North Sea. Initially the atmospheric flow rate of leaking gas and condensate was very poorly known, hampering environmental assessment and well control efforts. Six flights by the UK FAAM chemically-instrumented BAe-146 research aircraft, were used to quantify the flow rate. Where appropriate, two different methods were used to calculate the flow rate: 1. Gaussian plume fitting in the vertical and 2. Direct integration of the plume. When both methods were used, they compared within 6 % of each other and within combined errors. Data from the first flight on 30 March 2012 showed the flow rate to be 1.3 ± 0.2 kg CH4 s−1, decreasing to less than half that by the second flight on 17 April 2012. δ13CCH4 in the gas was found to be −43 ‰, implying that the gas source was unlikely to be from the main high-pressure high-temperature Elgin gas field at 5.5 km depth, but more probably from the overlying Hod Formation at 4.2 km depth. This was deemed to be smaller and more manageable than the high-pressure Elgin field and hence the response strategy was considerably simpler. The first flight was conducted within 5 days of the blowout and allowed a flow rate estimate within 48 hours of sampling, with δ13CCH4 characterisation soon thereafter, demonstrating the potential for a rapid-response capability that is widely applicable to future atmospheric emissions of environmental concern. Knowledge of the Elgin flow rate helped inform subsequent decision making. This study shows that leak assessment using appropriately designed airborne plume sampling strategies is well suited for circumstances where direct access is difficult or potentially dangerous. Measurements such as this also permit unbiased regulatory assessment of potential impact, independent of the emitting party, on timescales that can inform industry decision-makers and assist rapid response-planning by government

Flood plain management through allocation of land uses–a dynamic programming model

Despite heroic structural measures, flood damages continue to rise. This research develops a means for identifying more nearly optimal patterns of land use with particular reference to timing, depth, and duration of flooding. The major premise is that flood plain management is best viewed as a problem of allocating land uses to land parcels. A dynamic programming model is developed to determine what combination of downstream uses, which require flood protection, and upstream uses, which may increase runoff or provide protection through longer water retention, should be encouraged. The dynamic programming model and an associated simplified routing technique are demonstrated on a real watershed. Desirable extensions of the model are identified. One major result of the project is the realization of a need to classify watersheds by the degree of effective interdependence among land use decisions so as to determine the most appropriate types of analytical model s and public sector interventions for particular cases. Thinking about flood management as a problem of land use allocation is shown to be a fruitful conceptualization for exploring the issues, for developing models, and for identifying appropriate public sector interventions.U.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Department of the InteriorOpe

Understanding in situ ozone production in the summertime through radical observations and modelling studies during the Clean air for London project (ClearfLo)

Measurements of OH, HO2, RO2i (alkene and aromatic-related RO2) and total RO2 radicals taken during the ClearfLo campaign in central London in the summer of 2012 are presented. A photostationary steady-state calculation of OH which considered measured OH reactivity as the OH sink term and the measured OH sources (of which HO2+ NO reaction and HONO photolysis dominated) compared well with the observed levels of OH. Comparison with calculations from a detailed box model utilising the Master Chemical Mechanism v3.2, however, highlighted a substantial discrepancy between radical observations under lower NOx conditions ([NO] 3 ppbv) the box model increasingly underpredicted total [RO2]. The modelled and observed HO2 were in agreement, however, under elevated NO concentrations ranging from 7 to 15 ppbv. The model uncertainty under low NO conditions leads to more ozone production predicted using modelled peroxy radical concentrations ( ≈ 3 ppbv h-1) versus ozone production from peroxy radicals measured ( ≈ 1 ppbv h-1). Conversely, ozone production derived from the predicted peroxy radicals is up to an order of magnitude lower than from the observed peroxy radicals as [NO] increases beyond 7 ppbv due to the model underprediction of RO2 under these conditions

Siphonaptera of Canada

There are currently 154 species of fleas recorded in Canada in four superfamilies and seven families. Only two species have been added to the list since the previous summary by Holland (1979) one of which is unlikely to be established in Canada. There have been a number of significant nomenclatural changes since then most notable of which is the split of the Hystrichopsyllidae into two families Hystrichopsyllidae and Ctenophthalmidae. An additional 23 species may eventually be recorded based on presence of suitable hosts and proximity to known distributions. Six species are introduced and one species is adventive. Although total diversity is reasonably well known there are numerous gaps in distribution of fleas throughout the country. Barcode Index Numbers are available for only 22 species of fleas collected in Canada

Model for floodplain management in urbanizing areas

A target land use pattern found using a dynamic programming model is shown to be a useful reference for comparing the success of floodplain management policies. At least in the test case, there is interdependence in the land use allocation for floodplain management--that is, a good solution includes some reduction of current land use in the floodplain and some provision of detention storage. For the test case, current floodplain management policies are not sufficient; some of the existing floodplain use should be removed. Although specific land use patterns are in part sensitive to potential error in land value data and to inaccuracy in the routing model, the general conclusion that some existing use must be removed is stable within the range of likely error. Trend surface analysis is shown to be a potentially useful way of generating bid price data for use in land use allocation models. Sensitivity analysis of the dynamic programming model with respect to routing of hydrographs is conducted through simulation based on expected distributions of error.U.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Department of the InteriorOpe

Alkyl nitrates in outflow from North America over the North Atlantic during Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors 2004

This paper is based on alkyl nitrate measurements made over the North Atlantic as part of the International Consortium for Research on Atmospheric Transport and Transformation (ICARTT). The focus is on the analysis of air samples collected on the UK BAe-146 aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) project, but air samples collected on board the NASA DC-8 and NOAA WP-3D aircraft as part of a Lagrangian experiment are also used. The ratios between the alkyl nitrates and their parent hydrocarbons are compared with those expected from chemical theory. Further, a box model is run to investigate the temporal evolution of the alkyl nitrates in three Lagrangian case studies and compared to observations. The air samples collected during ITOP do not appear to be strongly influenced by oceanic sources, but rather are influenced by emissions from the N.E. United States and from Alaskan fires. There also appears to be a widespread common source of ethyl nitrate and 1-propyl nitrate other than from their parent hydrocarbons. The general agreement between the alkyl nitrate data and photochemical theory suggests that during the first few days of transport from the source region, photochemical production of alkyl nitrates, and thus ozone, had taken place. The observations in the more photochemically processed air masses are consistent with the alkyl nitrate production reactions no longer dominating the peroxy radical self/cross reactions. Further, the results also suggest that the rates of photochemical processing in the Alaskan smoke plumes were small

Application of a mobile laboratory using a selected-ion flow-tube mass spectrometer (SIFT-MS) for characterisation of volatile organic compounds and atmospheric trace gases

Over the last 2 decades, the importance of emissions source types of atmospheric pollutants in urban areas has undergone significant change. In particular, there has been a considerable reduction in emissions associated with road vehicles. Understanding the role played by different source sectors is important if effective air pollution control is to be achieved. Current atmospheric measurements are made at fixed monitoring sites, most of which do not include the measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), so our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation of pollutants is limited. Here we describe the application of a mobile laboratory using a selected-ion flow-tube mass spectrometer (SIFT-MS) and other trace gas instrumentation to provide on-road, high-spatial- A nd temporal-resolution measurements of CO2, CH4, VOCs and other trace gases. We then illustrate the potential of this platform for developing source characterisation methods that account for the similarity in correlation between species. Finally, we consider the benefits of high-spatial- A nd temporal-resolution measurements in characterising different types of sources, which would be difficult or impossible for single-species studies