The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions

AD-DICE: an implementation of adaptation in the DICE model

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) have helped us over the past decade to understand the interactions between the environment and the economy in the context of climate change. Although it has also long been recognized that adaptation is a powerful and necessary tool to combat the adverse effects of climate change, most IAMS have not explicitly included the option of adaptation in combating climate change. This paper adds to the IAM and climate change literature by explicitly including adaptation in an IAM, thereby making the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation visible. Specifically, a theoretical framework is created and used to implement adaptation as a decision variable into the DICE model. We use our new AD-DICE model to derive the adaptation cost functions implicit in the DICE model. In our set-up, adaptation and mitigation decisions are separable and AD-DICE can mimic DICE when adaptation is optimal. We find that our specification of the adaptation costs is robust with respect to the mitigation policy scenarios and parameter values. Our numerical results show that adaptation is a powerful option to combat climate change, as it reduces most of the potential costs of climate change in earlier periods, while mitigation does so in later period

Evaluation of alternative mosquito sampling methods for malaria vectors in Lowland South - East Zambia.

Sampling malaria vectors and measuring their biting density is of paramount importance for entomological surveys of malaria transmission. Human landing catch (HLC) has been traditionally regarded as a gold standard method for surveying human exposure to mosquito bites. However, due to the risk of human participant exposure to mosquito-borne parasites and viruses, a variety of alternative, exposure-free trapping methods were compared in lowland, south-east Zambia. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention miniature light trap (CDC-LT), Ifakara Tent Trap model C (ITT-C), resting boxes (RB) and window exit traps (WET) were all compared with HLC using a 3 × 3 Latin Squares design replicated in 4 blocks of 3 houses with long lasting insecticidal nets, half of which were also sprayed with a residual deltamethrin formulation, which was repeated for 10 rounds of 3 nights of rotation each during both the dry and wet seasons. The mean catches of HLC indoor, HLC outdoor, CDC-LT, ITT-C, WET, RB indoor and RB outdoor, were 1.687, 1.004, 3.267, 0.088, 0.004, 0.000 and 0.008 for Anopheles quadriannulatus Theobald respectively, and 7.287, 6.784, 10.958, 5.875, 0.296, 0.158 and 0.458, for An. funestus Giles, respectively. Indoor CDC-LT was more efficient in sampling An. quadriannulatus and An. funestus than HLC indoor (Relative rate [95% Confidence Interval] = 1.873 [1.653, 2.122] and 1.532 [1.441, 1.628], respectively, P < 0.001 for both). ITT-C was the only other alternative which had comparable sensitivity (RR = 0.821 [0.765, 0.881], P < 0.001), relative to HLC indoor other than CDC-LT for sampling An. funestus. While the two most sensitive exposure-free techniques primarily capture host-seeking mosquitoes, both have substantial disadvantages for routine community-based surveillance applications: the CDC-LT requires regular recharging of batteries while the bulkiness of ITT-C makes it difficult to move between sampling locations. RB placed indoors or outdoors and WET had consistently poor sensitivity so it may be useful to evaluate additional alternative methods, such as pyrethrum spray catches and back packer aspirators, for catching resting mosquitoes

Access to high cost medicines in Australia: ethical perspectives

Access to "high cost medicines" through Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) is tightly regulated. It is inherently difficult to apply any criteria-based system of control in a way that provides a fair balance between efficient use of limited resources for community needs and equitable individual access to care. We suggest, in relation to very high cost medicines, that the present arrangements be re-considered in order to overcome potential inequities. The biological agents for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis are used as an example by which to discuss the ethical issues associated with the current scheme. Consideration of ethical aspects of the PBS and similar programs is important in order to achieve the fairest outcomes for individual patients, as well as for the community

Do Meio- and Macrobenthic Nematodes Differ in Community Composition and Body Weight Trends with Depth?

Nematodes occur regularly in macrobenthic samples but are rarely identified from them and are thus considered exclusively a part of the meiobenthos. Our study compares the generic composition of nematode communities and their individual body weight trends with water depth in macrobenthic (>250/300 µm) samples from the deep Arctic (Canada Basin), Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the Bermuda slope with meiobenthic samples (<45 µm) from GOM. The dry weight per individual (µg) of all macrobenthic nematodes combined showed an increasing trend with increasing water depth, while the dry weight per individual of the meiobenthic GOM nematodes showed a trend to decrease with increasing depth. Multivariate analyses showed that the macrobenthic nematode community in the GOM was more similar to the macrobenthic nematodes of the Canada Basin than to the GOM meiobenthic nematodes. In particular, the genera Enoploides, Crenopharynx, Micoletzkyia, Phanodermella were dominant in the macrobenthos and accounted for most of the difference. Relative abundance of non-selective deposit feeders (1B) significantly decreased with depth in macrobenthos but remained dominant in the meiobenthic community. The occurrence of a distinct assemblage of bigger nematodes of high dry weight per individual in the macrobenthos suggests the need to include nematodes in macrobenthic studies

Protecting tropical forests from the rapid expansion of rubber using carbon payments

Expansion of Hevea brasiliensis rubber plantations is a resurgent driver of deforestation, carbon emissions, and biodiversity loss in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian rubber extent is massive, equivalent to 67% of oil palm, with rapid further expansion predicted. Results-based carbon finance could dis-incentivise forest conversion to rubber, but efficacy will be limited unless payments match, or at least approach, the costs of avoided deforestation. These include opportunity costs (timber and rubber profits), plus carbon finance scheme setup (transaction) and implementation costs. Using comprehensive Cambodian forest data, exploring scenarios of selective logging and conversion, and assuming land-use choice is based on net present value, we find that carbon prices of $30-$51 per tCO2are needed to break even against costs, higher than those currently paid on carbon markets or through carbon funds. To defend forests from rubber, either carbon prices must be increased, or other strategies are needed, such as corporate zero-deforestation pledges, and governmental regulation and enforcement of forest protection

Open Science principles for accelerating trait-based science across the Tree of Life

Synthesizing trait observations and knowledge across the Tree of Life remains a grand challenge for biodiversity science. Species traits are widely used in ecological and evolutionary science, and new data and methods have proliferated rapidly. Yet accessing and integrating disparate data sources remains a considerable challenge, slowing progress toward a global synthesis to integrate trait data across organisms. Trait science needs a vision for achieving global integration across all organisms. Here, we outline how the adoption of key Open Science principles-open data, open source and open methods-is transforming trait science, increasing transparency, democratizing access and accelerating global synthesis. To enhance widespread adoption of these principles, we introduce the Open Traits Network (OTN), a global, decentralized community welcoming all researchers and institutions pursuing the collaborative goal of standardizing and integrating trait data across organisms. We demonstrate how adherence to Open Science principles is key to the OTN community and outline five activities that can accelerate the synthesis of trait data across the Tree of Life, thereby facilitating rapid advances to address scientific inquiries and environmental issues. Lessons learned along the path to a global synthesis of trait data will provide a framework for addressing similarly complex data science and informatics challenges

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: A global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

This is the final version of the article. Available from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this record.Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft Access™ at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.The members of the ACER project wish to thank the QUEST-DESIRE (UK and France) bilateral project, the INQUA International Focus Group ACER and the INTIMATE-COST action for funding a suite of workshops to compile the ACER pollen and charcoal database and the workshop on ACER chronology that allow setting the basis for harmonizing the chronologies. Josué M. Polanco-Martinez was funded by a Basque Government postdoctoral fellowship (POS_2015_1_0006) and Sandy P. Harrison by the ERC Advanced Grant GC2.0: unlocking the past for a clearer future

Meiofauna in the Gollum Channels and the Whittard Canyon, Celtic Margin—How Local Environmental Conditions Shape Nematode Structure and Function

The Gollum Channels and Whittard Canyon (NE Atlantic) are two areas that receive high input of organic matter and phytodetritus from euphotic layers, but they are typified by different trophic and hydrodynamic conditions. Sediment biogeochemistry was analysed in conjunction with structure and diversity of the nematode community and differences were tested between study areas, water depths (700 m vs 1000 m), stations, and sediment layers. The Gollum Channels and Whittard Canyon harboured high meiofauna abundances (1054–1426 ind. 10 cm−2) and high nematode diversity (total of 181 genera). Next to enhanced meiofauna abundance and nematode biomass, there were signs of high levels of organic matter deposition leading to reduced sedimentary conditions, which in turn structured the nematode community. Striking in this respect was the presence of large numbers of ‘chemosynthetic’ Astomonema nematodes (Astomonema southwardorum, Order Monhysterida, Family Siphonolaimidae). This genus lacks a mouth, buccal cavity and pharynx and possesses a rudimentary gut containing internal, symbiotic prokaryotes which have been recognised as sulphur-oxidising bacteria. Dominance of Astomonema may indicate the presence of reduced environments in the study areas, which is partially confirmed by the local biogeochemical environment. The nematode communities were mostly affected by sediment layer differences and concomitant trophic conditions rather than other spatial gradients related to study area, water depth or station differences, pointing to small-scale heterogeneity as the main source of variation in nematode structure and function. Furthermore, the positive relation between nematode standing stocks, and quantity and quality of the organic matter was stronger when hydrodynamic disturbance was greater. Analogically, this study also suggests that structural diversity can be positively correlated with trophic conditions and that this relation is tighter when hydrodynamic disturbance is greater