Modelling the force of infection for hepatitis B and hepatitis C in injecting drug users in England and Wales

BACKGROUND: Injecting drug use is a key risk factor, for several infections of public health importance, especially hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV). In England and Wales, where less than 1% of the population are likely to be injecting drug users (IDUs), approximately 38% of laboratory reports of HBV, and 95% of HCV reports are attributed to injecting drug use. METHODS: Voluntary unlinked anonymous surveys have been performed on IDUs in contact with specialist agencies throughout England and Wales. Since 1990 more than 20,000 saliva samples from current IDUs have been tested for markers of infection for HBV, HCV testing has been included since 1998. The analysis here considers those IDUs tested for HBV and HCV (n = 5,682) from 1998–2003. This study derives maximum likelihood estimates of the force of infection (the rate at which susceptible IDUs acquire infection) for HBV and HCV in the IDU population and their trends over time and injecting career length. The presence of individual heterogeneity of risk behaviour and background HBV prevalence due to routes of transmission other than injecting are also considered. RESULTS: For both HBV and HCV, IDUs are at greatest risk from infection in their first year of injecting (Forces of infection in new initiates 1999–2003: HBV = 0.1076 95% C.I: 0.0840–0.1327 HCV = 0.1608 95% C.I: 0.1314–0.1942) compared to experienced IDUs (Force of infection in experienced IDUs 1999–2003: HBV = 0.0353 95% C.I: 0.0198–0.0596, HCV = 0.0526 95% C.I: 0.0310–0.0863) although independently of this there is evidence of heterogeneity of risk behaviour with a small number of IDUs at increased risk of infection. No trends in the FOI over time were detected. There was only limited evidence of background HBV infection due to factors other than injecting. CONCLUSION: The models highlight the need to increase interventions that target new initiates to injecting to reduce the transmission of blood-borne viruses. Although from the evidence here, identification of those individuals that engage in heightened at-risk behaviour may also help in planning effective interventions. The data and methods described here may provide a baseline for monitoring the success of public health interventions

The contributions of fronts, lows and thunderstorms to southern Australian rainfall

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The correction to this article is available in ORE at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/126081A systematic analysis of the main weather types influencing southern Australian rainfall is presented for the period 1979–2015. This incorporates two multi-method datasets of cold fronts and low pressure systems, which indicate the more robust fronts and lows as distinguished from the weaker and less impactful events that are often indicated only by a single method. The front and low pressure system datasets are then combined with a dataset of environmental conditions associated with thunderstorms, as well as datasets of warm fronts and high pressure systems. The results demonstrate that these weather types collectively account for about 86% of days and more than 98% of rainfall in Australia south of 25° S. We also show how the key rain-bearing weather systems vary throughout the year and for different regions, with the co-occurrence of simultaneous lows, fronts and thunderstorm conditions particularly important during the spring and summer months in southeast Australia

Geographic Coincidence of Increased Malaria Transmission Hazard and Vulnerability Occurring at the Periphery of two Tanzanian Villages.

The goal of malaria elimination necessitates an improved understanding of any fine-scale geographic variations in transmission risk so that complementary vector control tools can be integrated into current vector control programmes as supplementary measures that are spatially targeted to maximize impact upon residual transmission. This study examines the distribution of host-seeking malaria vectors at households within two villages in rural Tanzania. Host-seeking mosquitoes were sampled from 72 randomly selected households in two villages on a monthly basis throughout 2008 using CDC light-traps placed beside occupied nets. Spatial autocorrelation in the dataset was examined using the Moran's I statistic and the location of any clusters was identified using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Statistical associations between the household characteristics and clusters of mosquitoes were assessed using a generalized linear model for each species. For both Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and Anopheles funestus, the density of host-seeking females was spatially autocorrelated, or clustered. For both species, houses with low densities were clustered in the semi-urban village centre while houses with high densities were clustered in the periphery of the villages. Clusters of houses with low or high densities of An. gambiae s.l. were influenced by the number of residents in nearby houses. The occurrence of high-density clusters of An. gambiae s.l. was associated with lower elevations while An. funestus was also associated with higher elevations. Distance from the village centre was also positively correlated with the number of household occupants and having houses constructed with open eaves. The results of the current study highlight that complementary vector control tools could be most effectively targeted to the periphery of villages where the households potentially have a higher hazard (mosquito densities) and vulnerability (open eaves and larger households) to malaria infection

Attribution of extreme events to climate change in the Australian region – A review

Extreme event attribution is a rapidly growing field of climate science with important implications for public and government understanding of human-induced climate change. However, there is substantial variation in how well events can be attributed to human-induced climate change, depending on the nature of the event. Focusing on Australia: at one end of the scale, large-scale heat events on both the land and in the ocean are well suited to attribution studies because climate models simulate them reasonably well, there are high-quality observations available and our understanding of the processes that lead to extreme heat events is reasonably well developed. At the other end of the scale, very important phenomenon such as changes in east coast lows, severe convective storms and long-term droughts are less well observed, are beyond our current capability to robustly simulate in climate models and the complex mechanisms that lead to intensification are not well understood. Thus, some important extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change, with a high degree of confidence, while others cannot. We review the state of the science relevant to event attribution with a focus on Australia. We highlight where progress can be made, focusing on observations, physical understanding, and realistic climate modelling

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

The microaerophilic microbiota of de-novo paediatric inflammatory bowel disease: the BISCUIT study

<p>Introduction: Children presenting for the first time with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) offer a unique opportunity to study aetiological agents before the confounders of treatment. Microaerophilic bacteria can exploit the ecological niche of the intestinal epithelium; Helicobacter and Campylobacter are previously implicated in IBD pathogenesis. We set out to study these and other microaerophilic bacteria in de-novo paediatric IBD.</p> <p>Patients and Methods: 100 children undergoing colonoscopy were recruited including 44 treatment naïve de-novo IBD patients and 42 with normal colons. Colonic biopsies were subjected to microaerophilic culture with Gram-negative isolates then identified by sequencing. Biopsies were also PCR screened for the specific microaerophilic bacterial groups: Helicobacteraceae, Campylobacteraceae and Sutterella wadsworthensis.</p> <p>Results: 129 Gram-negative microaerophilic bacterial isolates were identified from 10 genera. The most frequently cultured was S. wadsworthensis (32 distinct isolates). Unusual Campylobacter were isolated from 8 subjects (including 3 C. concisus, 1 C. curvus, 1 C. lari, 1 C. rectus, 3 C. showae). No Helicobacter were cultured. When comparing IBD vs. normal colon control by PCR the prevalence figures were not significantly different (Helicobacter 11% vs. 12%, p = 1.00; Campylobacter 75% vs. 76%, p = 1.00; S. wadsworthensis 82% vs. 71%, p = 0.312).</p> <p>Conclusions: This study offers a comprehensive overview of the microaerophilic microbiota of the paediatric colon including at IBD onset. Campylobacter appear to be surprisingly common, are not more strongly associated with IBD and can be isolated from around 8% of paediatric colonic biopsies. S. wadsworthensis appears to be a common commensal. Helicobacter species are relatively rare in the paediatric colon.</p&gt

Appointing Women to Boards: Is There a Cultural Bias?

Companies that are serious about corporate governance and business ethics are turning their attention to gender diversity at the most senior levels of business (Institute of Business Ethics, Business Ethics Briefing 21:1, 2011). Board gender diversity has been the subject of several studies carried out by international organizations such as Catalyst (Increasing gender diversity on boards: Current index of formal approaches, 2012), the World Economic Forum (Hausmann et al., The global gender gap report, 2010), and the European Board Diversity Analysis (Is it getting easier to find women on European boards? 2010). They all lead to reports confirming the overall relatively low proportion of women on boards and the slow pace at which more women are being appointed. Furthermore, the proportion of women on corporate boards varies much across countries. Based on institutional theory, this study hypothesizes and tests whether this variation can be attributed to differences in cultural settings across countries. Our analysis of the representation of women on boards for 32 countries during 2010 reveals that two cultural characteristics are indeed associated with the observed differences. We use the cultural dimensions proposed by Hofstede (Culture’s consequences: International differences in work-related values, 1980) to measure this construct. Results show that countries which have the greatest tolerance for inequalities in the distribution of power and those that tend to value the role of men generally exhibit lower representations of women on boards

The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions

Parental transfer of the antimicrobial protein LBP/BPI protects Biomphalaria glabrata eggs against oomycete infections

Copyright: © 2013 Baron et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Funding: This work was funded by ANR (ANR-07-BLAN-0214 and ANR-12-EMMA-00O7-01), CNRS and INRA. PvW was financially supported by the BBSRC. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Bidirectional lipid droplet velocities are controlled by differential binding strengths of HCV Core DII protein

Host cell lipid droplets (LD) are essential in the hepatitis C virus (HCV) life cycle and are targeted by the viral capsid core protein. Core-coated LDs accumulate in the perinuclear region and facilitate viral particle assembly, but it is unclear how mobility of these LDs is directed by core. Herein we used two-photon fluorescence, differential interference contrast imaging, and coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering microscopies, to reveal novel core-mediated changes to LD dynamics. Expression of core protein’s lipid binding domain II (DII-core) induced slower LD speeds, but did not affect directionality of movement on microtubules. Modulating the LD binding strength of DII-core further impacted LD mobility, revealing the temporal effects of LD-bound DII-core. These results for DII-core coated LDs support a model for core-mediated LD localization that involves core slowing down the rate of movement of LDs until localization at the perinuclear region is accomplished where LD movement ceases. The guided localization of LDs by HCV core protein not only is essential to the viral life cycle but also poses an interesting target for the development of antiviral strategies against HCV