“We can’t do it on our own!”—Integrating stakeholder and scientific knowledge of future flood risk to inform climate change adaptation planning in a coastal region

Decision-makers face a particular challenge in planning for climate adaptation. The complexity of climate change's likely impacts, such as increased flooding, has widened the scope of information necessary to take action. This is particularly the case in valuable low-lying coastal regions, which host many competing interests, and where there is a growing need to draw from varied fields in the risk-based management of flooding. The rising scrutiny over science's ability to match expectations of policy actors has called for the integration of stakeholder and scientific knowledge domains. Focusing on the Broads — the United Kingdom's largest protected wetland — this study looked to assess future flood risk and consider potential adaptation responses in a collaborative approach. Interviews and surveys with local stakeholders accompanied the development of a hydraulic model in an iterative participatory design, centred on a scientist-stakeholder workshop. Knowledge and perspectives were shared on processes driving risk in the Broads, as well as on the implications of adaptation measures, allowing for their prioritisation. The research outcomes highlight not only the challenges that scientist-stakeholder integrated assessments of future flood risk face, but also their potential to lead to the production of useful information for decision-making

The stable climate of KELT-9b

Even among the most irradiated gas giants, so-called ultra-hot Jupiters, KELT-9b stands out as the hottest planet thus far discovered with a dayside temperature of over 4500 K. At these extreme irradiation levels, we expect an increase in heat redistribution efficiency and a low Bond albedo owed to an extended atmosphere with molecular hydrogen dissociation occurring on the planetary dayside. We present new photometric observations of the KELT-9 system throughout 4 full orbits and 9 separate occultations obtained by the 30 cm space telescope CHEOPS. The CHEOPS bandpass, located at optical wavelengths, captures the peak of the thermal emission spectrum of KELT-9b. In this work we simultaneously analyse CHEOPS phase curves along with public phase curves from TESS and Spitzer to infer joint constraints on the phase curve variation, gravity-darkened transits, and occultation depth in three bandpasses, as well as derive 2D temperature maps of the atmosphere at three different depths. We find a day-night heat redistribution efficiency of ~0.3 which confirms expectations of enhanced energy transfer to the planetary nightside due to dissociation and recombination of molecular hydrogen. We also calculate a Bond albedo consistent with zero. We find no evidence of variability of the brightness temperature of the planet, excluding variability greater than 1

An integrated 1D–2D hydraulic modelling approach to assess the sensitivity of a coastal region to compound flooding hazard under climate change

Coastal regions are dynamic areas that often lie at the junction of different natural hazards. Extreme events such as storm surges and high precipitation are significant sources of concern for flood management. As climatic changes and sea-level rise put further pressure on these vulnerable systems, there is a need for a better understanding of the implications of compounding hazards. Recent computational advances in hydraulic modelling offer new opportunities to support decision-making and adaptation. Our research makes use of recently released features in the HEC-RAS version 5.0 software to develop an integrated 1D–2D hydrodynamic model. Using extreme value analysis with the Peaks-Over-Threshold method to define extreme scenarios, the model was applied to the eastern coast of the UK. The sensitivity of the protected wetland known as the Broads to a combination of fluvial, tidal and coastal sources of flooding was assessed, accounting for different rates of twenty-first century sea-level rise up to the year 2100. The 1D–2D approach led to a more detailed representation of inundation in coastal urban areas, while allowing for interactions with more fluvially dominated inland areas to be captured. While flooding was primarily driven by increased sea levels, combined events exacerbated flooded area by 5–40% and average depth by 10–32%, affecting different locations depending on the scenario. The results emphasise the importance of catchment-scale strategies that account for potentially interacting sources of flooding

Spi-OPS : Spitzer and CHEOPS confirm the near-polar orbit of MASCARA-1 b and reveal a hint of dayside reflection

A.C.C. and T.G.W. acknowledge support from STFC consolidated grant number ST/M001296/1.Context. The light curves of tidally locked hot Jupiters transiting fast-rotating, early-type stars are a rich source of information about both the planet and star, with full-phase coverage enabling a detailed atmospheric characterisation of the planet. Although it is possible to determine the true spin–orbit angle Ψ – a notoriously difficult parameter to measure – from any transit asymmetry resulting from gravity darkening induced by the stellar rotation, the correlations that exist between the transit parameters have led to large disagreements in published values of Ψ for some systems. Aims. We aimed to study these phenomena in the light curves of the ultra-hot Jupiter MASCARA-1 b, which is characteristically similar to well-studied contemporaries such as KELT-9 b and WASP-33 b. Methods. We obtained optical CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) transit and occultation light curves of MASCARA-1 b, and analysed them jointly with a Spitzer/IRAC 4.5 μm full-phase curve to model the asymmetric transits, occultations, and phase-dependent flux modulation. For the latter, we employed a novel physics-driven approach to jointly fit the phase modulation by generating a single 2D temperature map and integrating it over the two bandpasses as a function of phase to account for the differing planet–star flux contrasts. The reflected light component was modelled using the general ab initio solution for a semi-infinite atmosphere. Results. When fitting the CHEOPS and Spitzer transits together, the degeneracies are greatly diminished and return results consistent with previously published Doppler tomography. Placing priors informed by the tomography achieves even better precision, allowing a determination of Ψ = 72.1−2.4+2.5 deg. From the occultations and phase variations, we derived dayside and nightside temperatures of 3062−68+66 K and 1720 ± 330 K, respectively.Our retrieval suggests that the dayside emission spectrum closely follows that of a blackbody. As the CHEOPS occultation is too deep to be attributed to blackbody flux alone, we could separately derive geometric albedo Ag = 0.171−0.068+0.066 and spherical albedo As = 0.266−0.100+0.097 from the CHEOPS data, and Bond albedoAB = 0.057−0.101+0.083 from the Spitzer phase curve.Although small, the Ag and As indicate that MASCARA-1 b is more reflective than most other ultra-hot Jupiters, where H− absorption is expected to dominate. Conclusions. Where possible, priors informed by Doppler tomography should be used when fitting transits of fast-rotating stars, though multi-colour photometry may also unlock an accurate measurement of Ψ. Our approach to modelling the phase variations at different wavelengths provides a template for how to separate thermal emission from reflected light in spectrally resolved James Webb Space Telescope phase curve data.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Detection of the tidal deformation of WASP-103b at 3 σ with CHEOPS

Funding: A.C.C. and T.G.W. acknowledge support from STFC consolidated grant number ST/M001296/1.Context. Ultra-short period planets undergo strong tidal interactions with their host star which lead to planet deformation and orbital tidal decay. Aims: WASP-103b is the exoplanet with the highest expected deformation signature in its transit light curve and one of the shortest expected spiral-in times. Measuring the tidal deformation of the planet would allow us to estimate the second degree fluid Love number and gain insight into the planet's internal structure. Moreover, measuring the tidal decay timescale would allow us to estimate the stellar tidal quality factor, which is key to constraining stellar physics. Methods: We obtained 12 transit light curves of WASP-103b with the CHaracterising ExOplanet Satellite (CHEOPS) to estimate the tidal deformation and tidal decay of this extreme system. We modelled the high-precision CHEOPS transit light curves together with systematic instrumental noise using multi-dimensional Gaussian process regression informed by a set of instrumental parameters. To model the tidal deformation, we used a parametrisation model which allowed us to determine the second degree fluid Love number of the planet. We combined our light curves with previously observed transits of WASP-103b with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and Spitzer to increase the signal-to-noise of the light curve and better distinguish the minute signal expected from the planetary deformation. Results: We estimate the radial Love number of WASP-103b to be hf =1.59-0.53+0.45. This is the first time that the tidal deformation is directly detected (at 3 σ) from the transit light curve of an exoplanet. Combining the transit times derived from CHEOPS, HST, and Spitzer light curves with the other transit times available in the literature, we find no significant orbital period variation for WASP-103b. However, the data show a hint of an orbital period increase instead of a decrease, as is expected for tidal decay. This could be either due to a visual companion star if this star is bound, the Applegate effect, or a statistical artefact. Conclusions: The estimated Love number of WASP-103b is similar to Jupiter's. This will allow us to constrain the internal structure and composition of WASP-103b, which could provide clues on the inflation of hot Jupiters. Future observations with James Webb Space Telescope can better constrain the radial Love number of WASP-103b due to their high signal-to-noise and the smaller signature of limb darkening in the infrared. A longer time baseline is needed to constrain the tidal decay in this system. The transit light curves are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftpt o cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr(ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/A+A/657/A52.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Examining the orbital decay targets KELT-9 b, KELT-16 b, and WASP-4 b, and the transit-timing variations of HD 97658 b,

Context. Tidal orbital decay is suspected to occur for hot Jupiters in particular, with the only observationally confirmed case of this being WASP-12 b. By examining this effect, information on the properties of the host star can be obtained using the so-called stellar modified tidal quality factor Q′∗, which describes the efficiency with which the kinetic energy of the planet is dissipated within the star. This can provide information about the interior of the star. Aims. In this study, we aim to improve constraints on the tidal decay of the KELT-9, KELT-16, and WASP-4 systems in order to find evidence for or against the presence of tidal orbital decay. With this, we want to constrain the Q′∗ value for each star. In addition, we aim to test the existence of the transit timing variations (TTVs) in the HD 97658 system, which previously favoured a quadratic trend with increasing orbital period. Methods. Making use of newly acquired photometric observations from CHEOPS (CHaracterising ExOplanet Satellite) and TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite), combined with archival transit and occultation data, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to fit three models to the data, namely a constant-period model, an orbital-decay model, and an apsidal-precession model. Results. We find that the KELT-9 system is best described by an apsidal-precession model for now, with an orbital decay trend at over 2 σ being a possible solution as well. A Keplerian orbit model with a constant orbital period provides the best fit to the transit timings of KELT-16 b because of the scatter and scale of their error bars. The WASP-4 system is best represented by an orbital decay model at a 5 σ significance, although apsidal precession cannot be ruled out with the present data. For HD 97658 b, using recently acquired transit observations, we find no conclusive evidence for a previously suspected strong quadratic trend in the data

Refining the properties of the TOI-178 system with CHEOPS and TESS

The TOI-178 system consists of a nearby late K-dwarf transited by six planets in the super-Earth to mini-Neptune regime, with orbital periods between 1.9 and 20.7 days. All planets but the innermost one form a chain of Laplace resonances. Mass estimates derived from a preliminary radial velocity (RV) dataset suggest that the planetary densities do not decrease in a monotonic way with the orbital distance to the star, contrary to what one would expect based on simple formation and evolution models. To improve the characterisation of this key system and prepare for future studies (in particular with JWST), we perform a detailed photometric study based on 40 new CHEOPS visits, one new TESS sector, as well as previously published CHEOPS, TESS, and NGTS data. First we perform a global analysis of the 100 transits contained in our data to refine the transit parameters of the six planets and study their transit timing variations (TTVs). We then use our extensive dataset to place constraints on the radii and orbital periods of potential additional transiting planets in the system. Our analysis significantly refines the transit parameters of the six planets, most notably their radii, for which we now obtain relative precisions $\lesssim$3%, with the exception of the smallest planet $b$ for which the precision is 5.1%. Combined with the RV mass estimates, the measured TTVs allow us to constrain the eccentricities of planets $c$ to $g$, which are found to be all below 0.02, as expected from stability requirements. Taken alone, the TTVs also suggest a higher mass for planet $d$ than the one estimated from the RVs, which had been found to yield a surprisingly low density for this planet. However, the masses derived from the current TTV dataset are very prior-dependent and further observations, over a longer temporal baseline, are needed to deepen our understanding of this iconic planetary system.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures, 9 tables. Accepted for publication in A&

CHEOPS observations of KELT-20 b/MASCARA-2 b: An aligned orbit and signs of variability from a reflective dayside

Occultations are windows of opportunity to indirectly peek into the dayside atmosphere of exoplanets. High-precision transit events provide information on the spin-orbit alignment of exoplanets around fast-rotating hosts. We aim to precisely measure the planetary radius and geometric albedo of the ultra-hot Jupiter (UHJ) KELT-20 b as well as the system's spin-orbit alignment. We obtained optical high-precision transits and occultations of KELT-20 b using CHEOPS observations in conjunction with the simultaneous TESS observations. We interpreted the occultation measurements together with archival infrared observations to measure the planetary geometric albedo and dayside temperatures. We further used the host star's gravity-darkened nature to measure the system's obliquity. We present a time-averaged precise occultation depth of 82(6) ppm measured with seven CHEOPS visits and 131(+8/-7) ppm from the analysis of all available TESS photometry. Using these measurements, we precisely constrain the geometric albedo of KELT-20 b to 0.26(0.04) and the brightness temperature of the dayside hemisphere to 2566(+77/-80) K. Assuming Lambertian scattering law, we constrain the Bond albedo to 0.36(+0.04/-0.05) along with a minimal heat transfer to the night side. Furthermore, using five transit observations we provide stricter constraints of 3.9(1.1) degrees on the sky-projected obliquity of the system. The aligned orbit of KELT-20 b is in contrast to previous CHEOPS studies that have found strongly inclined orbits for planets orbiting other A-type stars. The comparably high planetary geometric albedo of KELT-20 b corroborates a known trend of strongly irradiated planets being more reflective. Finally, we tentatively detect signs of temporal variability in the occultation depths, which might indicate variable cloud cover advecting onto the planetary day side.Comment: 27 pages, 15 figures, Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

The planetary system around HD 190622 (TOI-1054): Measuring the gas content of low-mass planets orbiting F-stars

Context. Giant planets are known to dominate the long-term stability of planetary systems due to their prevailing gravitational interactions, but they are also thought to play an important role in planet formation. Observational constraints improve our understanding of planetary formation processes such as the delivery of volatile-rich planetesimals from beyond the ice line into the inner planetary system. Additional constraints may come from studies of the atmosphere, but almost all such studies of the atmosphere investigate the detection of certain species, and abundances are not routinely quantitatively measured. Aims. Accurate measurements of planetary bulk parameters-that is, mass and density-provide constraints on the inner structure and chemical composition of transiting planets. This information provides insight into properties such as the amounts of volatile species, which in turn can be related to formation and evolution processes. Methods. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) reported a planetary candidate around HD 190622 (TOI-1054), which was subsequently validated and found to merit further characterization with photometric and spectroscopic facilities. The KESPRINT collaboration used data from the High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) to independently confirm the planetary candidate, securing its mass, and revealing the presence of an outer giant planet in the system. The CHEOPS consortium invested telescope time in the transiting target in order to reduce the uncertainty on the radius, improving the characterization of the planet. Results. We present the discovery and characterization of the planetary system around HD 190622 (TOI-1054). This system hosts one transiting planet, which is smaller than Neptune (3.087-0.053+0.058REarth, 7.7 ± 1.0 MEarth) but has a similar bulk density (1.43 ± 0.21 g cm-3) and an orbital period of 16 days; and a giant planet, not known to be transiting, with a minimum mass of 227.0 ± 6.7 MEarth in an orbit with a period of 315 days. Conclusions. Our measurements constrain the structure and composition of the transiting planet. HD 190622b has singular properties among the known population of transiting planets, which we discuss in detail. Among the sub-Neptune-sized planets known today, this planet stands out because of its large gas content