Applied causal inference methods for sequential mediators

BACKGROUND: Mediation analysis aims at estimating to what extent the effect of an exposure on an outcome is explained by a set of mediators on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. The total effect of the exposure on the outcome can be decomposed into an indirect effect, i.e. the effect explained by the mediators jointly, and a direct effect, i.e. the effect unexplained by the mediators. However finer decompositions are possible in presence of independent or sequential mediators. METHODS: We review four statistical methods to analyse multiple sequential mediators, the inverse odds ratio weighting approach, the inverse probability weighting approach, the imputation approach and the extended imputation approach. These approaches are compared and implemented using a case-study with the aim to investigate the mediating role of adverse reproductive outcomes and infant respiratory infections in the effect of maternal pregnancy mental health on infant wheezing in the Ninfea birth cohort. RESULTS: Using the inverse odds ratio weighting approach, the direct effect of maternal depression or anxiety in pregnancy is equal to a 59% (95% CI: 27%,94%) increased prevalence of infant wheezing and the mediated effect through adverse reproductive outcomes is equal to a 3% (95% CI: -6%,12%) increased prevalence of infant wheezing. When including infant lower respiratory infections in the mediation pathway, the direct effect decreases to 57% (95% CI: 25%,92%) and the indirect effect increases to 5% (95% CI: -5%,15%). The estimates of the effects obtained using the weighting and the imputation approaches are similar. The extended imputation approach suggests that the small joint indirect effect through adverse reproductive outcomes and lower respiratory infections is due entirely to the contribution of infant lower respiratory infections, and not to an increased prevalence of adverse reproductive outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The four methods revealed similar results of small mediating role of adverse reproductive outcomes and early respiratory tract infections in the effect of maternal pregnancy mental health on infant wheezing. The choice of the method depends on what is the effect of main interest, the type of the variables involved in the analysis (binary, categorical, count or continuous) and the confidence in specifying the models for the exposure, the mediators and the outcome. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01764-w

Social Withdrawal Behaviour at One Year of Age Is Associated with Delays in Reaching Language Milestones in the EDEN Mother-Child Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between social withdrawal behaviour at one year and motor and language milestones. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One-year old children from the EDEN French population-based birth cohort study (Study on the pre- and postnatal determinants of the child’s development and prospective health Birth Cohort Study) were included. Social withdrawal at one year was assessed by trained midwives using the Alarm Distress BaBy (ADBB) scale. Midwives concurrently examined infants’ motor and language milestones. Parents reported on child’s psychomotor and language milestones, during the interview with the midwife. RESULTS: After adjusting for potential confounding factors, social withdrawal behaviour was significantly associated with concurrent delays in motor and language milestones assessed by the midwife or the parents. DISCUSSION: Higher scores on social withdrawal behaviour as assessed with the ADBB were associated with delays in reaching language milestones, and to a lesser extent with lower motor ability scores. Taking the contribution of social withdrawal behaviour into account may help understand the unfolding of developmental difficulties in children

Associations between genetic obesity susceptibility and early postnatal fat and lean mass: an individual participant meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE: Patterns of body size and body composition associated with genetic obesity susceptibility inform the mechanisms that increase obesity risk. OBJECTIVE: To test associations between genetic obesity susceptibility, represented by a combined obesity risk-allele score, and body size or body composition at birth to age 5 years. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3031 children from 4 birth cohort studies in England, France, and Spain were included in a meta-analysis. EXPOSURES: A combined obesity risk-allele score was calculated from genotypes at 16 variants identified by genome-wide association studies of adult body mass index (BMI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Outcomes were age- and sex-adjusted SD scores (SDS) for weight, length/height, BMI, fat mass, lean mass, and percentage of body fat at birth as well as at ages 1, 2 to 3, and 4 to 5 years. RESULTS: The obesity risk-allele score was not associated with infant size at birth; at age 1 year it was positively associated with weight (β [SE], 0.020 [0.008] SDS per allele; P = .009) and length (β [SE], 0.020 [0.008] SDS per allele; P = .01), but not with BMI (β [SE], 0.013 [0.008] SDS per allele; P = .11). At age 2 to 3 years these associations were stronger (weight: β [SE], 0.033 [0.008] SDS per allele; P  .15 at all ages). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Genetic obesity susceptibility appears to promote a normally partitioned increase in early postnatal, but not prenatal, growth. These findings suggest that symmetrical rapid growth may identify infants with high life-long susceptibility for obesity

Quantitative lipoprotein subclass and low molecular weight metabolite analysis in human serum and plasma by 1H NMR spectroscopy in a multilaboratory trial

We report an extensive 600 MHz NMR trial of a quantitative lipoprotein and small molecule measurements in human blood serum and plasma. Five centers with eleven 600 MHz NMR spectrometers were used to analyze 98 samples including: 20 QCs, 37 commercially sourced, paired serum and plasma samples and 2 National Institute of Science and Technology, NIST, reference material 1951c replicates. Samples were analyzed using rigorous protocols for sample preparation and experimental acquisition. A commercial lipoprotein subclass analysis was used to quantify 105 lipoprotein subclasses and 24 low molecular weight metabolites from the nuclear magnetic resonance, NMR, spectra. For all spectrometers, the instrument specific variance in measuring internal quality controls, QCs, was lower than the percentage described by the National Cholesterol Education Program, NCEP, criteria for lipid testing (triglycerides<2.7%, cholesterol<2.8%; LDL-cholesterol<2.8%; HDL-cholesterol<2.3%), showing exceptional reproducibility for direct quantitation of lipoproteins in both matrices. The average RSD for the 105 lipoprotein parameters in the 11 instruments was 4.6% and 3.9% for the two NIST samples while it was 38% and 40% for the 37 commercially sourced plasmas and sera, respectively, showing negligible analytical compared to biological variation. The coefficient of variance, CV, obtained for the quantification of the small molecules across the 11 spectrometers was below 15% for 20 out of the 24 metabolites analyzed. This study provides further evidence of the suitability of NMR for high-throughput lipoprotein subcomponent analysis and small molecule quantitation with the exceptional reproducibility required for clinical and other regulatory settings

The insulin polymorphism -23Hph increases the risk for type 1 diabetes mellitus in the Romanian population

The insulin -23Hph and IGF2 Apa polymorphisms were genotyped in Romanian patients with T1DM (n = 204), T2DM (n = 215) or obesity (n = 200) and normoponderal healthy subjects (n = 750). The genotypes of both polymorphisms were distributed in concordance with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in all groups. The -23Hph AA genotype increased the risk for T1DM (OR: 3.22, 95%CI: 2.09-4.98, p < 0,0001), especially in patients without macroalbuminuria (OR: 4.32, 95%CI: 2.54-7.45, p < 0,0001). No other significant association between the alleles or genotypes of insulin -23Hph and IGF2 Apa and diabetes or obesity was identified

Association analysis of the IGF1 gene with childhood growth, IGF-1 concentrations and type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Insulin-like growth factor-1 is a major childhood growth factor and promotes pancreatic islet cell survival and growth in vitro. We hypothesised that genetic variation in IGF1 might be associated with childhood growth, glucose metabolism and type 1 diabetes risk. We therefore examined the association between common genetic variation in IGF1 and predisposition to type 1 diabetes, childhood growth and metabolism. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Variants in IGF1 were identified by direct resequencing of the exons, exon-intron boundaries and 5' and 3' regions in 32 unrelated type 1 diabetes patients. A tagging subset of these variants was genotyped in a collection of type 1 diabetes families (3,121 parent-child trios). We also genotyped a previously reported CA repeat in the region 5' to IGF1. A subset of seven tag single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) that captured variants with minor allele frequency (MAF) > or =0.05 was genotyped in 902 children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children with data on growth, IGF-1 concentrations, insulin secretion and insulin action. RESULTS: Resequencing detected 27 SNPs in IGF1, of which 11 had a MAF > 0.05 and were novel. Variants with MAF > or = 0.10 were captured by a set of four tag-SNPs. These SNPs showed no association with type 1 diabetes. In children, global variation in IGF1 was weakly associated with IGF-1 concentrations, but not with other phenotypes. The CA repeat in the region 5' to IGF1 showed no association with any phenotype. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Common genetic variation in IGF1 alters IGF-1 concentrations but is not associated with growth, glucose metabolism or type 1 diabetes

Deriving the dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) score in women from seven pregnancy cohorts from the European alphabet consortium

The ALPHABET consortium aims to examine the interplays between maternal diet quality, epigenetics and offspring health in seven pregnancy/birth cohorts from five European countries. We aimed to use the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) score to assess diet quality, but different versions have been published. To derive a single DASH score allowing cross-country, cross-cohort and cross-period comparison and limiting data heterogeneity within the ALPHABET consortium, we harmonised food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) data collected before and during pregnancy in ≥26,500 women. Although FFQs differed strongly in length and content, we derived a consortium DASH score composed of eight food components by combining the prescriptive original DASH and the DASH described by Fung et al. Statistical issues tied to the nature of the FFQs led us to re-classify two food groups (grains and dairy products). Most DASH food components exhibited pronounced between-cohort variability, including non-full-fat dairy products (median intake ranging from 0.1 to 2.2 servings/day), sugar-sweetened beverages/sweets/added sugars (0.3–1.7 servings/day), fruits (1.1–3.1 servings/day), and vegetables (1.5–3.6 servings/day). We successfully developed a harmonized DASH score adapted to all cohorts being part of the ALPHABET consortium. This methodological work may benefit other research teams in adapting the DASH to their study’s specificities

Low-frequency variants in HMGA1 are not associated with type 2 diabetes risk.

It has recently been suggested that the low-frequency c.136-14_136-13insC variant in high-mobility group A1 (HMGA1) may strongly contribute to insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes risk. In our study, we attempted to confirm that HMGA1 is a novel type 2 diabetes locus in French Caucasians. The gene was sequenced in 368 type 2 diabetic case subjects with a family history of type 2 diabetes and 372 normoglycemic control subjects without a family history of type 2 diabetes. None of the 41 genetic variations identified were associated with type 2 diabetes. The lack of association between the c.136-14_136-13insC variant and type 2 diabetes was confirmed in an independent French group of 4,538 case subjects and 4,015 control subjects and in a large meta-analysis of 16,605 case subjects and 46,179 control subjects. Finally, this variant had no effects on metabolic traits and was not involved in variations of HMGA1 and insulin receptor (INSR) expressions. The c.136-14_136-13insC variant was not associated with type 2 diabetes in individuals of European descent. Our study emphasizes the need to analyze a large number of subjects to reliably assess the association of low-frequency variants with the disease

Change in maternal body mass index is associated with offspring body mass index: a 21-year prospective study

High body-mass index (BMI; defined as 25 kg/m(2) or greater) is associated with increased risk of cancer. To inform public health policy and future research, we estimated the global burden of cancer attributable to high BMI in 2012

Long-term cardiometabolic health in people born after assisted reproductive technology: a multi-cohort analysis

Aims To examine associations of assisted reproductive technology (ART) conception (vs. natural conception: NC) with offspring cardiometabolic health outcomes and whether these differ with age. Methods and results Differences in systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), heart rate (HR), lipids, and hyperglycaemic/insulin resistance markers were examined using multiple linear regression models in 14 population-based birth cohorts in Europe, Australia, and Singapore, and results were combined using meta-analysis. Change in cardiometabolic outcomes from 2 to 26 years was examined using trajectory modelling of four cohorts with repeated measures. 35 938 (654 ART) offspring were included in the meta-analysis. Mean age ranged from 13 months to 27.4 years but was <10 years in 11/14 cohorts. Meta-analysis found no statistical difference (ART minus NC) in SBP (-0.53 mmHg; 95% CI:-1.59 to 0.53), DBP (-0.24 mmHg; -0.83 to 0.35), or HR (0.02 beat/min; -0.91 to 0.94). Total cholesterol (2.59%; 0.10-5.07), HDL cholesterol (4.16%; 2.52-5.81), LDL cholesterol (4.95%; 0.47-9.43) were statistically significantly higher in ART-conceived vs. NC offspring. No statistical difference was seen for triglycerides (TG), glucose, insulin, and glycated haemoglobin. Long-term follow-up of 17 244 (244 ART) births identified statistically significant associations between ART and lower predicted SBP/DBP in childhood, and subtle trajectories to higher SBP and TG in young adulthood; however, most differences were not statistically significant. Conclusion These findings of small and statistically non-significant differences in offspring cardiometabolic outcomes should reassure people receiving ART. Longer-term follow-up is warranted to investigate changes over adulthood in the risks of hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and preclinical and clinical cardiovascular disease.Acknowledgements We thank all cohort members and researchers who participated in the study. Cohort-specific acknowledgments can be found in Supplementary material online, Text S2. Data used in this study are available to bone fide researchers upon request to each cohort. Details of how to access the data are provided in Supplementary material online, Text S2. Please contact Professor Deborah Lawlor ([email protected]) and Dr Ahmed Elhakeem ([email protected]) if you have relevant data and would like to join the ART-Health Cohort Collaboration and contribute to future collaborations